Markets were higher again last week, locking in two week of gains with solid upside in big tech. Official S&P index outperformed equal-weighted one after underperforming it last week. Other areas of strength included telecoms, hospitals, managed care, investment banks, credit cards, software, agriculture, machinery, and railways. Areas of weakness included energy sector, insurance, beverages, cruiselines, semi equipment, waste, marine shipping, and industrial metals. Treasuries were firmer. The dollar was weaker on the major crosses, especially against euro and sterling. Bitcoin futures were up 1.3% with Trump signing Executive Order promoting crypto. Gold rose 1.2%. WTI crude was down 3.5% for the week.
Investors processed several moving pieces last week amid the first days of President Trump’s administration. Stocks ended the week higher supported by some ongoing Trump optimism though notable uncertainty remains around tariffs and legislative developments. Equities were also supported by rate reprieve, positioning, AI theme (Stargate), animal spirits, decent start to Q4 earnings season, breadth improvement/cyclical rotations, and some China policy support headlines. Still, the bulk of headlines this week centered on developments inside Washington, especially around comments from Trump.
Washington headlines dominated market focus. Market has taken some solace in the view that tariff commentary out of the White House has been more benign than expected with China largely spared thus far (though Trump did threaten 10% tariffs on Tuesday). However, Mexico and Canada remain in the crosshairs with Trump setting Feb 1 deadline at which he will potentially place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Elsewhere, the announced $500B AI investment Stargate deal boosted the AI secular growth theme though some noted skepticism about financing and prospects. On the legislative front, Politico reported Republican leaders are mulling a big debt-and-funding deal with Democrats. Meanwhile, The Hill reported Republican leaders agreed to push ahead with Trump 2.0 legislative agenda in one sweeping bill, though neither House and Senate leaders did not confirm. Finally, at Davos Trump called for interest rates and oil prices to be lowered.
It was relatively quiet on the macro calendar front last week. Weekly initial claims came in slightly ahead of consensus and continuing claims were notably higher w/w. January
S&P US flash manufacturing PMI beat, back in expansion territory for first time since June. Flash services PMIs missed, lowest since April. However, report said inflationary pressures rose to four month highs.Bank of Japan raised by 25 bp, as expected. Final University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell m/m with short and long run inflation expectations higher. December existing home sales were slightly ahead of estimates.
Q4 earnings sentiment has remained fairly upbeat with blended growth rate improving to 12.8% from 11.9% at the end of the quarter. However, Q4 earnings metrics did deteriorate from last week’s elevated levels. So far, 16% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2024. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 75%.
Regarding one of the world’s largest companies and one of the magnificent 7- Apple announced that smartphone sales in China reportedly fell 18% in the last quarter. Too many other viable options available maybe.
High value economic data this week; New Home Sales, Durable Orders, FHFA Home Price Index,, Jan Consumer Confidence, : FOMC Meeting; On the growth front we will see the 4th quarter Preliminary GDP, on the inflation front we get a reading on the feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Personal Consumption expenditures .
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 last week. There are 576 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 45 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 1/23/2025 – In the week ending January 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 213,500 an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economyadded 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents/0.3% to $35.69.
U3 unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.2% to 7.5%.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales –Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025– Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index –Released 1/15/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index– Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
Chicago PMI– Released 12/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in December and fell to 36.9 from 40.2 points in November. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 13th successive month in December. New orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest since May 2020, with more than half of respondents reporting fewer new orders for the first time since June 2020.
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
This week we get data on the Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP, Personal Income, New Residential Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, and the Employment Cost Index.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 4, 2024
Less Tariffs Than Expected?
Markets were higher again last week, locking in two week of gains with solid upside in big tech. Official S&P index outperformed equal-weighted one after underperforming it last week. Other areas of strength included telecoms, hospitals, managed care, investment banks, credit cards, software, agriculture, machinery, and railways. Areas of weakness included energy sector, insurance, beverages, cruiselines, semi equipment, waste, marine shipping, and industrial metals. Treasuries were firmer. The dollar was weaker on the major crosses, especially against euro and sterling. Bitcoin futures were up 1.3% with Trump signing Executive Order promoting crypto. Gold rose 1.2%. WTI crude was down 3.5% for the week.
Investors processed several moving pieces last week amid the first days of President Trump’s administration. Stocks ended the week higher supported by some ongoing Trump optimism though notable uncertainty remains around tariffs and legislative developments. Equities were also supported by rate reprieve, positioning, AI theme (Stargate), animal spirits, decent start to Q4 earnings season, breadth improvement/cyclical rotations, and some China policy support headlines. Still, the bulk of headlines this week centered on developments inside Washington, especially around comments from Trump.
Washington headlines dominated market focus. Market has taken some solace in the view that tariff commentary out of the White House has been more benign than expected with China largely spared thus far (though Trump did threaten 10% tariffs on Tuesday). However, Mexico and Canada remain in the crosshairs with Trump setting Feb 1 deadline at which he will potentially place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Elsewhere, the announced $500B AI investment Stargate deal boosted the AI secular growth theme though some noted skepticism about financing and prospects. On the legislative front, Politico reported Republican leaders are mulling a big debt-and-funding deal with Democrats. Meanwhile, The Hill reported Republican leaders agreed to push ahead with Trump 2.0 legislative agenda in one sweeping bill, though neither House and Senate leaders did not confirm. Finally, at Davos Trump called for interest rates and oil prices to be lowered.
It was relatively quiet on the macro calendar front last week. Weekly initial claims came in slightly ahead of consensus and continuing claims were notably higher w/w. January
S&P US flash manufacturing PMI beat, back in expansion territory for first time since June. Flash services PMIs missed, lowest since April. However, report said inflationary pressures rose to four month highs.Bank of Japan raised by 25 bp, as expected. Final University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell m/m with short and long run inflation expectations higher. December existing home sales were slightly ahead of estimates.
Q4 earnings sentiment has remained fairly upbeat with blended growth rate improving to 12.8% from 11.9% at the end of the quarter. However, Q4 earnings metrics did deteriorate from last week’s elevated levels. So far, 16% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2024. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 75%.
Regarding one of the world’s largest companies and one of the magnificent 7- Apple announced that smartphone sales in China reportedly fell 18% in the last quarter. Too many other viable options available maybe.
High value economic data this week; New Home Sales, Durable Orders, FHFA Home Price Index,, Jan Consumer Confidence, : FOMC Meeting; On the growth front we will see the 4th quarter Preliminary GDP, on the inflation front we get a reading on the feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Personal Consumption expenditures .
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 last week. There are 576 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 45 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 1/23/2025 – In the week ending January 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 213,500 an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/10/2025 – The US Economy added 256k nonfarm jobs in December and the Unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35.69. Hiring highlights include +46k Healthcare, +43k Retail Trade, +33k Government, and +23k in Social Assistance.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
Employment Cost Index – Released 10/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% for the 3-month period ending in September 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from June 2024. The 12-month period ending in September 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 3.9. The 12-month period ending September 2023 increased 4.3%. Wages and salaries increased 3.9 percent over the 12-month period ending in September 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.7 percent over the 12-month period and increased 4.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2023. This report is published quarterly.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 1/24/2025 – Existing home sales in December increased 2.2% from November and increased 9.3% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 4.24 million in December seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $404,400, up 6.0% from one year ago.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 1/17/2025 – December housing starts came in at 1,499,000, 15.8% above the November estimate but is 4.4% below the December 2023 rate. Building permits were 0.7% below the November rate at $1,483,000 and is 3.1% below the December 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 1/17/2025 – Industrial production increased 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Manufacturing increased 0.6%. Utilities output increased 2.1%. Mining increased 1.8%. Total industrial production in December was 0.5% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization increased to 77.6% in December, a rate that is 2.1% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 1/16/2025 – Headline retail sales were up 0.4% in December and are up 3.9% above December 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 1/15/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in November. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 1/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in December.
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent in November. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/7/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a increase in the goods deficit of $5.4 billion to $103.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion to $25.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/7/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the sixth consecutive month indicating expansion in ten of the twelve months of 2024. The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent 2.0 percent higher than November’s reading of 52.1 percent.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/3/2025 – The December Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 percent, 0.9 percent higher compared to November. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in expansion territory, registering 52.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 50.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (50.3 percent) is 3.5 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 46.8 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/2/2024 – Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, almost unchanged from the October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of $2,090.7 billion.
Chicago PMI – Released 12/31/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in December and fell to 36.9 from 40.2 points in November. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 13th successive month in December. New orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest since May 2020, with more than half of respondents reporting fewer new orders for the first time since June 2020.
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.1% to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.8% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $2.9 billion or 2.9% to $95.5 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2024 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 111.7 to 104.7 in December. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.
New Residential Sales – Released 12/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7 percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/20/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.521 million units in November.
Personal Income – Released 12/20/2024 – Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Third Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 12/19/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are more complete than the “second” and “advance” estimates which both had GDP increase by 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
This week we get data on the Advance Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP, Personal Income, New Residential Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, and the Employment Cost Index.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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