US equities were mixed this week. The Nasdaq was the worst performing of the major averages, the S&P500 ended the week slightly lower despite capping off a fresh record close on Thursday. The small-cap S&P 600 was the standout, setting fresh 2025 highs Thursday. Value also ended the week in positive territory while beating growth by 2.2% for the month. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening. The dollarindex was down 0.6%. Gold was up 2%. Bitcoin futures were up 3.6%. WTI crude ended down 4.4%.
The big market story a the cyclical rotation that gained further traction at the expense of momentum and the AI trade. The rotation was tabbed to factors including the less hawkish FOMC takeaways, looming 2026 fiscal impulse with OBBA, taxes, and deprecation expense tailwinds, as well as some company-specific updates around the AI trade.
Some pieces of the bullish narrative included resilient consumer spending, benign credit, a less onerous tariff impact, lending growth, accelerating capital markets activity, and some relatively well-received Treasury auctions. Some pieces of the bearish narrative include a broader hawkish global monetary policy shift, potential for challenges against a dovish Fed in 2026 (NY Times), and labor market concerns after Powell said statistics may be overcounting job growth by 60K/month. A backup in long-end of the curve was also in focus, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching the highest levels since early September, while the 2Y/10Y spread was the widest since April.
Some cautious AI takeaways this week included disappointing Oracle results, with FCF worse than expected and an increase in FY capex guidance. Broadcom also fell after earnings despite a beat and Q1 raise, with analysts blaming an extremely high bar with shares up over 75% YTD into the print, though some also flagged its six-quarter AI backlog disclosure of $73B. Goldman Sachs among the latest to comment on the AI disruption and dispersion theme, calling the recent shift in narrative the end of the beginning of the AI story, arguing investors will have to be increasingly discerning about the beneficiaries of AI.
However, there were also some positive AI updates this week. Broadcom’s doubling of AI revenues for the January quarter, OpenAI released its latest AI model, GPT-5.2, announced a partnership and $1B equity investment from Disney and released a report that highlighted enterprise worker productivity gains. Nvidia also received approval from the Trump administration to sell its H200 chips to China, whileReuters later reported the company has told Chinese clients it is evaluating additional H200 AI chip production capacity after demand exceeded current output.
The December FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp cut, as expected, bringing the fed funds rate to 3.50-3.75%, with thepolicy statement containing some hawkish tweaks. The decision featured three dissents, with Governor Miran preferring a 50 bp cut, while Chicago’s Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Schmid voting for a hold. The updated SEP showed four additional soft dissents. The median forecast was for one 25 bp cut in 2026, though economist takeaways were somewhat mixed on the rate cut path next year given uncertainty around the labor market, inflation, and resilient economic growth.Chair Powell’s comments were less hawkish than feared, not closing the door on a January cut and noting federal jobs data may be overstating job creation by up to 60K a month. The Fed also announced a $40B short-term bond buying program. Markets are now pricing 50 bp of cuts through year-end 2026, down from 68 bp at the end of last week.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury yields ended slightly higher, and the 10-year yield rose on the week despite a Fed meeting Wednesday that was not quite as hawkish as some investors expected.
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD dipped modestly post‑Fed cut as rate differentials narrowed and global equities attracted capital, aiding cyclical and EM currency strength.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 1 this week. There are now 548 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 41 from last year. The entire energy complex fell this week but natural gas dropped sharply on warmer than expected weather forecasts and strong supplies. Gasoline hit a low point going back to February 21’.
Metals Complex – Precious metals continued to attract flows, supported by rate‑cut optimism and safe‑haven demand. Silver closed at new all-time highs on Friday.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 12/11/2025 In the week ending December 6, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 191,000 to 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,750.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/3/25 Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index– Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit–Released 12/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/25/2025 – Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months. Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 50, 2025
US equities were mixed this week. The Nasdaq was the worst performing of the major averages, the S&P500 ended the week slightly lower despite capping off a fresh record close on Thursday. The small-cap S&P 600 was the standout, setting fresh 2025 highs Thursday. Value also ended the week in positive territory while beating growth by 2.2% for the month. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening. The dollarindex was down 0.6%. Gold was up 2%. Bitcoin futures were up 3.6%. WTI crude ended down 4.4%.
The big market story a the cyclical rotation that gained further traction at the expense of momentum and the AI trade. The rotation was tabbed to factors including the less hawkish FOMC takeaways, looming 2026 fiscal impulse with OBBA, taxes, and deprecation expense tailwinds, as well as some company-specific updates around the AI trade.
Some pieces of the bullish narrative included resilient consumer spending, benign credit, a less onerous tariff impact, lending growth, accelerating capital markets activity, and some relatively well-received Treasury auctions. Some pieces of the bearish narrative include a broader hawkish global monetary policy shift, potential for challenges against a dovish Fed in 2026 (NY Times), and labor market concerns after Powell said statistics may be overcounting job growth by 60K/month. A backup in long-end of the curve was also in focus, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching the highest levels since early September, while the 2Y/10Y spread was the widest since April.
Some cautious AI takeaways this week included disappointing Oracle results, with FCF worse than expected and an increase in FY capex guidance. Broadcom also fell after earnings despite a beat and Q1 raise, with analysts blaming an extremely high bar with shares up over 75% YTD into the print, though some also flagged its six-quarter AI backlog disclosure of $73B. Goldman Sachs among the latest to comment on the AI disruption and dispersion theme, calling the recent shift in narrative the end of the beginning of the AI story, arguing investors will have to be increasingly discerning about the beneficiaries of AI.
However, there were also some positive AI updates this week. Broadcom’s doubling of AI revenues for the January quarter, OpenAI released its latest AI model, GPT-5.2, announced a partnership and $1B equity investment from Disney and released a report that highlighted enterprise worker productivity gains. Nvidia also received approval from the Trump administration to sell its H200 chips to China, whileReuters later reported the company has told Chinese clients it is evaluating additional H200 AI chip production capacity after demand exceeded current output.
The December FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp cut, as expected, bringing the fed funds rate to 3.50-3.75%, with thepolicy statement containing some hawkish tweaks. The decision featured three dissents, with Governor Miran preferring a 50 bp cut, while Chicago’s Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Schmid voting for a hold. The updated SEP showed four additional soft dissents. The median forecast was for one 25 bp cut in 2026, though economist takeaways were somewhat mixed on the rate cut path next year given uncertainty around the labor market, inflation, and resilient economic growth.Chair Powell’s comments were less hawkish than feared, not closing the door on a January cut and noting federal jobs data may be overstating job creation by up to 60K a month. The Fed also announced a $40B short-term bond buying program. Markets are now pricing 50 bp of cuts through year-end 2026, down from 68 bp at the end of last week.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury yields ended slightly higher, and the 10-year yield rose on the week despite a Fed meeting Wednesday that was not quite as hawkish as some investors expected.
December FOMC Statement October Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD dipped modestly post‑Fed cut as rate differentials narrowed and global equities attracted capital, aiding cyclical and EM currency strength.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 1 this week. There are now 548 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 41 from last year. The entire energy complex fell this week but natural gas dropped sharply on warmer than expected weather forecasts and strong supplies. Gasoline hit a low point going back to February 21’.
Metals Complex – Precious metals continued to attract flows, supported by rate‑cut optimism and safe‑haven demand. Silver closed at new all-time highs on Friday.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 12/11/2025 In the week ending December 6, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 191,000 to 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,750.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/3/25 Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index – Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit – Released 12/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/25/2025 – Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months. Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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