Equity markets made yet another new all-time high this week, with the S&P 500 trading above 6800 Friday. Most all Fixed income assets rose as the curve flattened slightly. Stocks logged solid gains this week with path of least resistance still to the upside on Fed easing expectations, favorable inflation data, double-digit earnings growth, elevated retail impulse, and some select de-escalatory (though volatile) China-US trade headlines. Still, crowded/stretched positioning, looming seasonal headwinds, lingering tariff risks, high-AI expectations, and ongoing labor market worries provided some upside resistance.
Volatile trade headlines were back in focus after Reuters reported the US is considering curbs on exports to China made with US software. Trump administration sources said development represents dramatic escalation. Notably, the report said Trump may announce measure to put pressure on China but stop short of full implementation. Still, Trump and Xi are expected to meet next Thursday. Recall Trump’s 100% tariffthreat on China to 155% if no deal is reached by Nov 1st, though earlier reporting indicated White House is quietly watering down Trump’s tariffs via rising exemptions and carve-outs . Elsewhere on trade, market largely ignored Trump’s Friday announcement he is terminating negotiations with Canada.
Strong Q3 earnings metrics so far with nearly 30% of S&P 500 having now reported. Blended growth rate up over 100 bp already in last couple of weeks to +9.1% (and on track for fourth straight Q of double-digit growth), 84% of reporters have surpassed consensus earnings expectations (vs 70% five-year average) and total earnings positively surprising by 7.9% (vs 7.3% one-year average).
Regarding macro data, most government data is on hold due to the shutdown BUT they did release September CPI. It came in a bit cooler than expected with help from shelter-related components (while tariff-exposed categories firmed). Food at home, used vehicles, and airline fares other notable areas of disinflation/deflation. Cooler report did little to change Fed rate cut expectations with market still pricing in two more cuts in 2025. Elsewhere, existing home sales hit a seven-month high in September and the flash US composite PMI surprised to the upside, hitting a three-month high in October.
Other notable items:
No progress made on government shutdown with shutdown now on track to extend into November
Concerns around bank credit/underwriting eased after Zion Bank earnings clarified its $50M charge-off(fraud related)
Internal Amazon documents reportedly revealed plans to automate 75% of its operations
Oil rallied after US Treasury for the first time launched sanctions directly targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies
After jumping 1000$ and ounce in 40 trading days Gold had its 1stweekly close in the last 10.
BofA, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank pulled forward their expectations for Fed to announce end of QT next week.
Amazons AWS suffered a widespread disruption early in the week but the stock rose over 5%
Fixed Income: Bond markets rallied this week as risk‑aversion and dovish policy expectations drove yields lower, while credit spreads held relatively steady and municipals saw selective out‑performance.
Foreign Exchange Market – Essentially flat to modestly higher on the week; after a soft CPI wobble Friday
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count added 2 this week. There are now 550 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex – From August through October 20th Gold rose $1000 an ounce – 40 trading days – Then had its 1st weekly close in the last 10.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 10/7/2025 – In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 10/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010. In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)
Consumer Confidence– Released 9/30/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 43, 2025
Equity markets made yet another new all-time high this week, with the S&P 500 trading above 6800 Friday. Most all Fixed income assets rose as the curve flattened slightly. Stocks logged solid gains this week with path of least resistance still to the upside on Fed easing expectations, favorable inflation data, double-digit earnings growth, elevated retail impulse, and some select de-escalatory (though volatile) China-US trade headlines. Still, crowded/stretched positioning, looming seasonal headwinds, lingering tariff risks, high-AI expectations, and ongoing labor market worries provided some upside resistance.
Volatile trade headlines were back in focus after Reuters reported the US is considering curbs on exports to China made with US software. Trump administration sources said development represents dramatic escalation. Notably, the report said Trump may announce measure to put pressure on China but stop short of full implementation. Still, Trump and Xi are expected to meet next Thursday. Recall Trump’s 100% tariffthreat on China to 155% if no deal is reached by Nov 1st, though earlier reporting indicated White House is quietly watering down Trump’s tariffs via rising exemptions and carve-outs . Elsewhere on trade, market largely ignored Trump’s Friday announcement he is terminating negotiations with Canada.
Strong Q3 earnings metrics so far with nearly 30% of S&P 500 having now reported. Blended growth rate up over 100 bp already in last couple of weeks to +9.1% (and on track for fourth straight Q of double-digit growth), 84% of reporters have surpassed consensus earnings expectations (vs 70% five-year average) and total earnings positively surprising by 7.9% (vs 7.3% one-year average).
Regarding macro data, most government data is on hold due to the shutdown BUT they did release September CPI. It came in a bit cooler than expected with help from shelter-related components (while tariff-exposed categories firmed). Food at home, used vehicles, and airline fares other notable areas of disinflation/deflation. Cooler report did little to change Fed rate cut expectations with market still pricing in two more cuts in 2025. Elsewhere, existing home sales hit a seven-month high in September and the flash US composite PMI surprised to the upside, hitting a three-month high in October.
Other notable items:
Fixed Income: Bond markets rallied this week as risk‑aversion and dovish policy expectations drove yields lower, while credit spreads held relatively steady and municipals saw selective out‑performance.
September FOMC Statement September Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – Essentially flat to modestly higher on the week; after a soft CPI wobble Friday
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count added 2 this week. There are now 550 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex – From August through October 20th Gold rose $1000 an ounce – 40 trading days – Then had its 1st weekly close in the last 10.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 10/7/2025 – In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010. In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)
Consumer Confidence– Released 9/30/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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