Equities were mostly higher for the holiday-shortened week, starting the new month on a risk-off note and by Friday paring back from Wednesday/Thursday strength (Thursday saw the S&P print another fresh record high). Big tech was mostly higher while Mid-Caps were the standout this week jumping more than 1.3%. Fixed income rallied notably across the curve as expectations grew for more Fed cuts this year; the 2Y yield hit its lowest point since early April and one of its lowest points in the past three years. Gold was up 3.9%, finishing at a fresh record level and ending higher for the fifth week of the past six. Oil was down after two weeks higher, with WTI settling off 3.3%. The market was focused on new OPEC+ headlines about further output increases from eight cartel members.
The major economic focus this week was the August nonfarm payrolls report, which showed growth of only 22K jobs in the month (and a 21K reduction in the prior two months, resulting in negative job growth for June). The report provided more evidence of a labor-market slowdown, and pushed market expectations for rate cuts toward three 25bp moves before year’s end. Note Fed Governor Waller (on Trump’s short list to be the next Fed chair) has been consistently saying a softening labor market increases the need for the Fed to begin easing, but the prospect of a weaker jobs market was also mentioned this week by regional Fed presidents Musalem, Bostic, and Kashkari.f
Elsewhere on the economic front, August ISM manufacturing came in below on the headline, though new orders rose. ISM services was a bit better, with new orders moving back into expansion the highlight. Initial jobless claims printed above consensus, but continuing claims were below. The US trade balance widened in August. The Fed’s latest Beige Book report noted mixed economic conditions. And in an interesting takeaway from this week’s July JOLTS report, job openings contracted more than expected, leaving more unemployed people than job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
Several headlines on trade were in focus this week. Last Friday, the US court of appeals concurred with a lower court opinion finding that the president does not have unlimited tariff power under 1977’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump warned that this decision, if upheld, “would literally destroy the United States of America” and sought an expedited ruling from the US Supreme Court; however, Friday’s ruling said tariffs could stay in place until Oct 14th to offer time for such an appeal. In other news, late in the week the president issued an executive order finally fleshing out the US-Japan bilateral trade agreement. There was also a report the US is preparing to launch a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal, as has been expected.
Fed independence remained in focus with headlines the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud. But of note, GOP Senator Tillis (who sits on the Senate Banking Committee) said he would not consider any nominee for Cook’s position until her case is decided by the courts. That committee this week also heard from Stephen Miran, who has been nominated to fill Kugler’s spot on the committee; he talked up Fed independence but also said he would retain his job as director of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers. Finally, Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would soon be conducting a “flurry” of interviews for Fed Chair Powell’s successor.
While this week reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will soon embark on more policy easing, events also resurfaced concerns about risks to the economy. Slowing nonfarm payrolls growth, a shrinking pool of job openings, and increased Challenger job-cut plans continued to illustrate a “no hire/no fire” economy with risks potentially tilted to the downside. Tariffs remain a source of persistent uncertainty to businesses and consumers, with the IEEPA case adding to the lack of clarity going forward (and potentially putting pressure on the Treasury market, which has seen tariff revenue as helping to offset rising issuance). All that said, corporate reports this week highlighted consumer resilience and travel demand, and new-order improvement in both ISM reports was welcomed.
Fixed Income: A pronounced bond rally this week, fueled by weak payrolls and solid inflows drove U.S. yields sharply lower across the curve, with munis outperforming amid robust fund demand; markets now brace for a potential Fed rate cut and heavy supply ahead.
Foreign Exchange Market – After grinding higher early in the week, the greenback lost the plot on Friday—weak payrolls and rising cut odds knocked DXY to a weekly loss while euro outperformed.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 this week. There are 537 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 45 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold surged to a fresh record near $3,600/oz and logged its strongest weekly gain in 3 months as soft U.S. jobs data boosted Fed-cut bets and knocked the dollar. Silver held above $40/oz (a 14-year high) and finished the week higher alongside gold’s rally
Employment Picture –
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/4/2025 – In the week ending August 30th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
2nd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 8/28/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion. This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 8/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
Existing Home Sales –Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
Housing Starts– Released 8/19/2025 – Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index– Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index–Released 8/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Consumer Credit–Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 36, 2025
Equities were mostly higher for the holiday-shortened week, starting the new month on a risk-off note and by Friday paring back from Wednesday/Thursday strength (Thursday saw the S&P print another fresh record high). Big tech was mostly higher while Mid-Caps were the standout this week jumping more than 1.3%. Fixed income rallied notably across the curve as expectations grew for more Fed cuts this year; the 2Y yield hit its lowest point since early April and one of its lowest points in the past three years. Gold was up 3.9%, finishing at a fresh record level and ending higher for the fifth week of the past six. Oil was down after two weeks higher, with WTI settling off 3.3%. The market was focused on new OPEC+ headlines about further output increases from eight cartel members.
The major economic focus this week was the August nonfarm payrolls report, which showed growth of only 22K jobs in the month (and a 21K reduction in the prior two months, resulting in negative job growth for June). The report provided more evidence of a labor-market slowdown, and pushed market expectations for rate cuts toward three 25bp moves before year’s end. Note Fed Governor Waller (on Trump’s short list to be the next Fed chair) has been consistently saying a softening labor market increases the need for the Fed to begin easing, but the prospect of a weaker jobs market was also mentioned this week by regional Fed presidents Musalem, Bostic, and Kashkari.f
Elsewhere on the economic front, August ISM manufacturing came in below on the headline, though new orders rose. ISM services was a bit better, with new orders moving back into expansion the highlight. Initial jobless claims printed above consensus, but continuing claims were below. The US trade balance widened in August. The Fed’s latest Beige Book report noted mixed economic conditions. And in an interesting takeaway from this week’s July JOLTS report, job openings contracted more than expected, leaving more unemployed people than job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
Several headlines on trade were in focus this week. Last Friday, the US court of appeals concurred with a lower court opinion finding that the president does not have unlimited tariff power under 1977’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump warned that this decision, if upheld, “would literally destroy the United States of America” and sought an expedited ruling from the US Supreme Court; however, Friday’s ruling said tariffs could stay in place until Oct 14th to offer time for such an appeal. In other news, late in the week the president issued an executive order finally fleshing out the US-Japan bilateral trade agreement. There was also a report the US is preparing to launch a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal, as has been expected.
Fed independence remained in focus with headlines the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud. But of note, GOP Senator Tillis (who sits on the Senate Banking Committee) said he would not consider any nominee for Cook’s position until her case is decided by the courts. That committee this week also heard from Stephen Miran, who has been nominated to fill Kugler’s spot on the committee; he talked up Fed independence but also said he would retain his job as director of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers. Finally, Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would soon be conducting a “flurry” of interviews for Fed Chair Powell’s successor.
While this week reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will soon embark on more policy easing, events also resurfaced concerns about risks to the economy. Slowing nonfarm payrolls growth, a shrinking pool of job openings, and increased Challenger job-cut plans continued to illustrate a “no hire/no fire” economy with risks potentially tilted to the downside. Tariffs remain a source of persistent uncertainty to businesses and consumers, with the IEEPA case adding to the lack of clarity going forward (and potentially putting pressure on the Treasury market, which has seen tariff revenue as helping to offset rising issuance). All that said, corporate reports this week highlighted consumer resilience and travel demand, and new-order improvement in both ISM reports was welcomed.
Fixed Income: A pronounced bond rally this week, fueled by weak payrolls and solid inflows drove U.S. yields sharply lower across the curve, with munis outperforming amid robust fund demand; markets now brace for a potential Fed rate cut and heavy supply ahead.
July FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – After grinding higher early in the week, the greenback lost the plot on Friday—weak payrolls and rising cut odds knocked DXY to a weekly loss while euro outperformed.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 this week. There are 537 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 45 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold surged to a fresh record near $3,600/oz and logged its strongest weekly gain in 3 months as soft U.S. jobs data boosted Fed-cut bets and knocked the dollar. Silver held above $40/oz (a 14-year high) and finished the week higher alongside gold’s rally
Employment Picture –
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/4/2025 – In the week ending August 30th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
2nd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 8/28/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion. This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 8/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
Housing Starts– Released 8/19/2025 – Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index – Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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