US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs on Thursday. Big tech was mostly higher with Tesla and Nvidia the standouts. Other outperformers included China tech, online brokers, auto suppliers, software, E&Cs, moneycenter banks, and airlines. Laggards included MCOs, homebuilders, trucking, copper and aluminum, chemicals, energy, parcels and logistics, and credit cards. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening; the 30Y ended the week around the 5% level, though a bit off worst levels. The dollar index was up 0.6%. Gold was down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures were down 0.7%. WTI crude was down 1.6%, breaking two-straight weekly gains.
The modest upside in equities came despite the market pricing a flatter rate cut path, which fell this week to 42 bp of cuts through year-end, down from 50 bp a week ago. Despite the repricing, equities saw a tailwind from rate stabilization after the sizable Treasury selloff in recent weeks. The front end of the curve was a bit firmer, though the longer-end of the curve saw some a modest weakness, with the 30Y yield back above 5.0% amid lingering concerns around Fed independence, debt and deficits
Trump’s attacks on the Fed escalated this week after reports said administration officials had discussed firing Fed Chair Powell. However, Trump later denied the reports, saying he is unlikely to fire Powell unless there is cause. This week also saw a ramp in attacks over cost overruns at the Fed’s headquarters, which is seen by some as a pretext for trying to remove Powell. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Waller said he believes it makes sense to cut by 25 bp at 23-30 Jul FOMC meeting, citing tame inflation and a weakening labor market. Reports this week also said White House economist Hassett may be the frontrunner to replace Powell.
This week featured a lot of headline noise around trade. UBS analysts noted markets may be underestimating tariffs, with its US tariff fear gauge at zero. That dynamic plays into concerns around TACO meme leading to complacency despite the approaching 1-Aug deadline for another increase in tariffs. There was also little movement this week on key trade deals (China, EU, Japan, India). However, Trump threatened 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico this week, while reported Friday that Trump is pushing for a minimal tariff of 15-20% in any trade deal with the EU. The June 0.1% increase in import prices was below consensus, but analysts noted it is measured pre-tariff, suggesting domestic companies and individuals paying for tariffs.
Despite the tariff overhang, data this week continued to reflected economic resilience. Initial jobless claims, June retail sales, June industrial production, housing starts and permits, and the Philly Fed and Empire indexes all came in better than expected. Friday’s Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment also beat, with 1Y and 5Y inflation expectations continuing to come down after the post-Liberation Day spike, though both remain above Dec 24’ levels.
The AI secular growth narrative boosted this week by TSM, which said it sees strong structural demand from customers. Semis and other AI-adjacent names also rallied after Nvidia announced on Monday that it received assurances from the Trump administration that it can resume selling its H20 AI chip in China. However, ASML pulled its 2026 growth outlook due to increasing macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
A big week of earnings coming up with 112 companies in the S&P 500 set to report. Economic date this week includes the Richmond Fed Index, existing home sales, Flash Markit PMIs, new home sales, and durable goods.
Fixed Income: The 30 year yield continues to dance around the 5% level as inflation and tariff anxieties persist.
Energy Complex: The Baker Hughes rig count added 7 last week. There are 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 42 from last year. WTI crude dropped around 1%, ending near $67.34/barrel amid mixed demand signals and rising EU sanctions on Russia
Metals Complex: A recent copper spike—bouncing almost 20% in a single session—signals how U.S. tariff threats can shake commodities like infrastructure and EV metals
Employment Picture:
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
U3 unemployment rate was fell 0.1% to at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.4%.
Average work week was fell slightly at 34.2 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.08, a 0.2% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 7/3/2025 – In the week ending July 17th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $720.1 billion, up 0.6% from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from June 2024.
Producer Price Index– Released 7/16/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in June. Final demand prices increased 0.3% June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index–Released 7/15/2025– The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy (core cpi) rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May and increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 7/5/2025 – In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM®Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales –Released 6/23/2025 –Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer:This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 29, 2025
US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs on Thursday. Big tech was mostly higher with Tesla and Nvidia the standouts. Other outperformers included China tech, online brokers, auto suppliers, software, E&Cs, moneycenter banks, and airlines. Laggards included MCOs, homebuilders, trucking, copper and aluminum, chemicals, energy, parcels and logistics, and credit cards. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening; the 30Y ended the week around the 5% level, though a bit off worst levels. The dollar index was up 0.6%. Gold was down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures were down 0.7%. WTI crude was down 1.6%, breaking two-straight weekly gains.
The modest upside in equities came despite the market pricing a flatter rate cut path, which fell this week to 42 bp of cuts through year-end, down from 50 bp a week ago. Despite the repricing, equities saw a tailwind from rate stabilization after the sizable Treasury selloff in recent weeks. The front end of the curve was a bit firmer, though the longer-end of the curve saw some a modest weakness, with the 30Y yield back above 5.0% amid lingering concerns around Fed independence, debt and deficits
Trump’s attacks on the Fed escalated this week after reports said administration officials had discussed firing Fed Chair Powell. However, Trump later denied the reports, saying he is unlikely to fire Powell unless there is cause. This week also saw a ramp in attacks over cost overruns at the Fed’s headquarters, which is seen by some as a pretext for trying to remove Powell. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Waller said he believes it makes sense to cut by 25 bp at 23-30 Jul FOMC meeting, citing tame inflation and a weakening labor market. Reports this week also said White House economist Hassett may be the frontrunner to replace Powell.
This week featured a lot of headline noise around trade. UBS analysts noted markets may be underestimating tariffs, with its US tariff fear gauge at zero. That dynamic plays into concerns around TACO meme leading to complacency despite the approaching 1-Aug deadline for another increase in tariffs. There was also little movement this week on key trade deals (China, EU, Japan, India). However, Trump threatened 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico this week, while reported Friday that Trump is pushing for a minimal tariff of 15-20% in any trade deal with the EU. The June 0.1% increase in import prices was below consensus, but analysts noted it is measured pre-tariff, suggesting domestic companies and individuals paying for tariffs.
Despite the tariff overhang, data this week continued to reflected economic resilience. Initial jobless claims, June retail sales, June industrial production, housing starts and permits, and the Philly Fed and Empire indexes all came in better than expected. Friday’s Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment also beat, with 1Y and 5Y inflation expectations continuing to come down after the post-Liberation Day spike, though both remain above Dec 24’ levels.
The AI secular growth narrative boosted this week by TSM, which said it sees strong structural demand from customers. Semis and other AI-adjacent names also rallied after Nvidia announced on Monday that it received assurances from the Trump administration that it can resume selling its H20 AI chip in China. However, ASML pulled its 2026 growth outlook due to increasing macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
A big week of earnings coming up with 112 companies in the S&P 500 set to report. Economic date this week includes the Richmond Fed Index, existing home sales, Flash Markit PMIs, new home sales, and durable goods.
Fixed Income: The 30 year yield continues to dance around the 5% level as inflation and tariff anxieties persist.
June FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market:
Energy Complex: The Baker Hughes rig count added 7 last week. There are 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 42 from last year. WTI crude dropped around 1%, ending near $67.34/barrel amid mixed demand signals and rising EU sanctions on Russia
Metals Complex: A recent copper spike—bouncing almost 20% in a single session—signals how U.S. tariff threats can shake commodities like infrastructure and EV metals
Employment Picture:
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 7/3/2025 – In the week ending July 17th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $720.1 billion, up 0.6% from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from June 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 7/16/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in June. Final demand prices increased 0.3% June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/16/25- Industrial production (IP) increased 0.3% in June. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1%.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/15/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy (core cpi) rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May and increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 7/5/2025 – In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales – Released 6/23/2025 – Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: