A stronger-than-expected jobs report reignited rate concerns, driving a sharp rotation out of AI and growth stocks and into Energy, Health Care, and other defensive sectors. The S&P 500 declined 2.6% for the week, ending a nine-week winning streak. For the record, job growth isn’t bad BUT the “rates must come down crowd” just got some news not in their favor. With Job growth reaccelerating (payrolls up 172k JOLTS up 730k) the likelihood of a rate cut this year even farther into the distance.
The S&P broke a nine-week streak of gains, and the index had risen for nine straight sessions through Jun 2nd, when it set its most recent record high. That said, the Mag 7 group and larger-cap tech were among the key weak spots, and the equal-weight S&P was only down 0.5% for the week. Treasuries were weaker with some notable curve flattening. The rise in yields accelerated on Friday in the wake of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses; DXY +1.2%. Gold finished down 5.0%; silver lost 8.9% in its fourth-straight weekly decline. Bitcoin futures were down nearly 17% for the week, its worst since November 2022. WTI crude settled up 2.6% for the week in response to continued uncertainty about the path toward a negotiated agreement in the Mideast.
The big story this week was the dip in semis/memory and select AI names, accompanied by a rotation into defensives, financials, and healthcare. One of the sparks was Broadcom’s earnings report, which saw reiterated FY27 AI guidance falling short of very elevated expectations along with lingering worries about competitive concerns. There was also some attention on an Anthropic blog post discussing the potential attractiveness of slowing AI development and ongoing discussions about token costs. But these factors more dulled than derailed the AI tailwind, and came alongside further discussion of very extended momentum outperformance.
There was no real movement on the US-Iran conflict despite last week’s hopes a memorandum of understanding was close that could lead to a 60-day ceasefire and further negotiation on sticking points. In contrast, this week saw the US conducting more “self defense” strikes at targets in southern Iran while Gulf nations responded to inbound missile and drone attacks. There was some hope an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could help diplomatic efforts, but Hezbollah refused to sign on. Overall, expectations remain tilted more toward a negotiated settlement than a return to fighting, but the sides seem to remain far apart on key items including nuclear material, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of sanctions relief.
Among the other items of note this week, there were discussions around equity supply ahead of the looming mega-IPO wave that includes next week’s $75B SpaceX IPO. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish with comments from Hammack and Logan involving possible hikes to help contain inflation. Some press on new Fed Chair Warsh discussed the possibility he will begin dialing back forward guidance statements. And the Trump administration began rolling out new tariff proposals as it seeks to recover ground lost after the Supreme Court’s decision against IEEPA emergency tariffs.
Energy Complex – Energy prices finished higher for the week despite a late-week pullback. Crude oil was supported by ongoing Middle East supply concerns and reduced Iranian exports, though gains were trimmed as investors grew more optimistic about a potential ceasefire extension and easing tensions in the region. WTI gained approximately 2.75% while Brent advanced roughly 1.5% on the week
Metals Complex – Precious metals struggled this week as stronger-than-expected employment data pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. While easing Middle East tensions removed some safe-haven demand, the primary driver was the market’s reassessment of the interest-rate outlook. Gold declined over 4% while silver fell nearly 9.5%, reflecting silver’s typically higher volatility.
Employment Picture – Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 6/4/2026 – In the week ending May 30, initial claims were 225,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 3,000 from 215,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 750 from 209,000 to 208,250.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 6/5/2026 – The May employment report surprised to the upside as nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, nearly double expectations, while prior months were revised higher. Although wage growth remained contained at 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment held steady at 4.3%, the report reinforced the view that the labor market remains resilient. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher as investors reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing, weighing on interest-rate-sensitive assets including gold and silver
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 6/2/2026 – Jolts rocketed higher last month. Job openings grew by 733k. This week’s employment and JOLTS reports suggest the labor market remains one of the strongest areas of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected hiring, stable unemployment, and rising job openings reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve can remain patient on interest rates, contributing to higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Consumer Credit–Released 6/5/2026 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in May, The Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, the 23rd consecutive month in expansion territory. The 54.5 percent, was an increase of 0.9 percentage point compared to April’s figure of 53.6 percent. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory in May, increasing 1.8 percentage points to 57.7 percent from April’s reading of 55.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/1/2026 – Construction spending during April 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,172.4 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised March estimate of $2,164.5 billion. The April figure is 0.9 percent above the April 2025 estimate of $2,153.4 billion.
Durable Goods – Released 5/28/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.
Personal Income – Released 5/28/2026 – Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $114.0 billion in April. Personal saving was $611.7 billion in April, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.6 percent.
GDP, 1st Q, 2nd Est. – Released 5/28/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were exports, investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/28/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 622,000, This is 6.2 percent below the March 2026 rate of 663,000, and is 11.3 percent below the April 2025 rate of 701,00
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/26/2026 – Consumer Confidence dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 3.2 points.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 5/21/2026 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised March rate of 1,363,000, but is 0.2 percent below the April 2025 rate of 1,445,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 872,000; this is 2.6 percent below the revised March figure of 895,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 514,000 in April.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.92 million units in April.
Philly Fed Index – Released 5/21/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell sharply this month. The employment index ticked up but remained negative, continuing to suggest overall declines in employment. Both price indexes declined this month but remained elevated.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/21/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent.
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail sales were up 0.5 percent month over month. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index–Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the 2 preceding months.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
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Week 23 Talking Points – Job Growth is Bad?
A stronger-than-expected jobs report reignited rate concerns, driving a sharp rotation out of AI and growth stocks and into Energy, Health Care, and other defensive sectors. The S&P 500 declined 2.6% for the week, ending a nine-week winning streak. For the record, job growth isn’t bad BUT the “rates must come down crowd” just got some news not in their favor. With Job growth reaccelerating (payrolls up 172k JOLTS up 730k) the likelihood of a rate cut this year even farther into the distance.
The S&P broke a nine-week streak of gains, and the index had risen for nine straight sessions through Jun 2nd, when it set its most recent record high. That said, the Mag 7 group and larger-cap tech were among the key weak spots, and the equal-weight S&P was only down 0.5% for the week. Treasuries were weaker with some notable curve flattening. The rise in yields accelerated on Friday in the wake of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses; DXY +1.2%. Gold finished down 5.0%; silver lost 8.9% in its fourth-straight weekly decline. Bitcoin futures were down nearly 17% for the week, its worst since November 2022. WTI crude settled up 2.6% for the week in response to continued uncertainty about the path toward a negotiated agreement in the Mideast.
The big story this week was the dip in semis/memory and select AI names, accompanied by a rotation into defensives, financials, and healthcare. One of the sparks was Broadcom’s earnings report, which saw reiterated FY27 AI guidance falling short of very elevated expectations along with lingering worries about competitive concerns. There was also some attention on an Anthropic blog post discussing the potential attractiveness of slowing AI development and ongoing discussions about token costs. But these factors more dulled than derailed the AI tailwind, and came alongside further discussion of very extended momentum outperformance.
There was no real movement on the US-Iran conflict despite last week’s hopes a memorandum of understanding was close that could lead to a 60-day ceasefire and further negotiation on sticking points. In contrast, this week saw the US conducting more “self defense” strikes at targets in southern Iran while Gulf nations responded to inbound missile and drone attacks. There was some hope an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could help diplomatic efforts, but Hezbollah refused to sign on. Overall, expectations remain tilted more toward a negotiated settlement than a return to fighting, but the sides seem to remain far apart on key items including nuclear material, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of sanctions relief.
Among the other items of note this week, there were discussions around equity supply ahead of the looming mega-IPO wave that includes next week’s $75B SpaceX IPO. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish with comments from Hammack and Logan involving possible hikes to help contain inflation. Some press on new Fed Chair Warsh discussed the possibility he will begin dialing back forward guidance statements. And the Trump administration began rolling out new tariff proposals as it seeks to recover ground lost after the Supreme Court’s decision against IEEPA emergency tariffs.
Fixed Income –
April FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Energy Complex – Energy prices finished higher for the week despite a late-week pullback. Crude oil was supported by ongoing Middle East supply concerns and reduced Iranian exports, though gains were trimmed as investors grew more optimistic about a potential ceasefire extension and easing tensions in the region. WTI gained approximately 2.75% while Brent advanced roughly 1.5% on the week
Metals Complex – Precious metals struggled this week as stronger-than-expected employment data pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. While easing Middle East tensions removed some safe-haven demand, the primary driver was the market’s reassessment of the interest-rate outlook. Gold declined over 4% while silver fell nearly 9.5%, reflecting silver’s typically higher volatility.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 6/4/2026 – In the week ending May 30, initial claims were 225,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 3,000 from 215,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 750 from 209,000 to 208,250.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 6/5/2026 – The May employment report surprised to the upside as nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, nearly double expectations, while prior months were revised higher. Although wage growth remained contained at 3.4% year-over-year and unemployment held steady at 4.3%, the report reinforced the view that the labor market remains resilient. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher as investors reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing, weighing on interest-rate-sensitive assets including gold and silver
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/2/2026 – Jolts rocketed higher last month. Job openings grew by 733k. This week’s employment and JOLTS reports suggest the labor market remains one of the strongest areas of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected hiring, stable unemployment, and rising job openings reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve can remain patient on interest rates, contributing to higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Consumer Credit – Released 6/5/2026 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in May, The Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, the 23rd consecutive month in expansion territory. The 54.5 percent, was an increase of 0.9 percentage point compared to April’s figure of 53.6 percent. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory in May, increasing 1.8 percentage points to 57.7 percent from April’s reading of 55.9 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/1/2026 – Construction spending during April 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,172.4 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised March estimate of $2,164.5 billion. The April figure is 0.9 percent above the April 2025 estimate of $2,153.4 billion.
Durable Goods – Released 5/28/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.
Personal Income – Released 5/28/2026 – Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $114.0 billion in April. Personal saving was $611.7 billion in April, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.6 percent.
GDP, 1st Q, 2nd Est. – Released 5/28/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were exports, investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/28/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 622,000, This is 6.2 percent below the March 2026 rate of 663,000, and is 11.3 percent below the April 2025 rate of 701,00
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/26/2026 – Consumer Confidence dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 3.2 points.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 5/28/2026 – From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 5/21/2026 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised March rate of 1,363,000, but is 0.2 percent below the April 2025 rate of 1,445,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 872,000; this is 2.6 percent below the revised March figure of 895,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 514,000 in April.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.92 million units in April.
Philly Fed Index – Released 5/21/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell sharply this month. The employment index ticked up but remained negative, continuing to suggest overall declines in employment. Both price indexes declined this month but remained elevated.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/21/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent.
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail sales were up 0.5 percent month over month. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the 2 preceding months.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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