May’s impressive rally in Tech (+19%) helped drive the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. This followed April’s extremely strong index gains. This week saw new all-time highs on Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Russell 200 and the S&P 600. Semiconductors and memory companies continued their strength, with Micron becoming the latest $1T+ market-cap stock as the memory space racked up huge gains. The software space also continued its recovery (+8.1%). Other outperformers included airlines, tech hardware, networking/communications, industrial metals, life sciences, and quantum computing.
Treasuries were mostly weaker in May, with the 2Y yield rising 12 bp. The bond was a bit firmer; the 30Y yield touched 5.22% on May 19th before coming back below the 5% level by month’s end. The dollar was stronger, Gold was slightly lower, settling down 0.8%; silver rose 2.4%. Bitcoin futures dropped 3.8%. WTI crude ended down 16.9%, back below $90/barrel. Amid the current talk of a US-Iran MOU, the December WTI contract ended the month below $79/barrel.
AI tailwinds continued to blow: The market continued to see strong tailwinds from AI amid intense compute demand and expansive capex plans. But investors (and policymakers) also continued to debate monetization prospects and extent/timeline of ROI and productivity benefits.
Possible US-Iran MOU on the horizon: The US-Iran conflict remained in an uneasy status quo for much of the month, with several flare-ups failing to disrupt expectations for an eventual negotiated settlement. Developments near month-end suggested the sides could be close to a memorandum of understanding leading to a 60-day ceasefire extension and more detailed negotiations.
Inflation worries persist: Price pressures remained evident in May amid elevated energy prices and some hotter data readings (including higher April core CPI). Affordability remained a key element in depressed consumer sentiment, while several Fed policymakers cited untamed inflation and uncertain war/energy impacts as keeping the door open to tighter policy.
Concerns about consumer stress: Consumer resilience has been a big bullish talking point this year, but there was increased focus recently on pressures from rising prices and a widening K-shaped gap (with lower-income households’ spending more energy-intensive). Corporate commentary continued to show resilient spending overall, but also increased buyer caution.
Big Q1 earnings season: First-quarter earnings reports largely came to a close in May, with S&P 500 constituents posting blended earnings growth of nearly 29%, the best since Q4’21. The +17.1% magnitude of these beats was also the highest since Q1’21. However, there remained a big divergence in earnings growth between the Mag 7 names (~+63%) vs the remaining 493 (~+17%).
Fed leadership changeover: Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell as Fed chair, though analysts noted he may find it challenging to fulfill dove’s hopes given the inflation backdrop and policymakers’ concerns. Trump seemed to give him some cover, saying “I’m going to let him do what he wants to do” but also saying “we don’t want to stop greatness.”
Fixed Income – Treasury yields moved modestly lower this week as falling energy prices reduced inflation concerns. Credit spreads tightened across both investment-grade and high-yield markets as investors rotated back toward risk assets following improving ceasefire developments
Energy Complex – Energy was the week’s biggest reversal trade. The market moved from pricing a potential supply shock to pricing a gradual normalization of Middle East exports. Despite falling inventories, oil declined sharply as traders unwound the geopolitical premium. The key question for June is whether the ceasefire holds and whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to something resembling normal operations.
Metals Complex – Gold rebounded from early-week weakness as lower oil prices and a softer dollar offset reduced geopolitical concerns. Silver was little changed.
Employment Picture –
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 5/28/2026 – In the week ending May 23, initial claims were 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 202,500 to 202,750.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separationschanged little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Durable Goods – Released 5/28/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.
Personal Income – Released 5/28/2026 – Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $114.0 billion in April. Personal saving was $611.7 billion in April, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.6 percent.
GDP, 1st Q, 2nd Est. – Released 5/28/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were exports, investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/26/2026 – Consumer Confidence dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 3.2 points.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 5/21/2026 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised March rate of 1,363,000, but is 0.2 percent below the April 2025 rate of 1,445,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 872,000; this is 2.6 percent below the revised March figure of 895,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 514,000 in April.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.92 million units in April.
Philly Fed Index – Released 5/21/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell sharply this month. The employment index ticked up but remained negative, continuing to suggest overall declines in employment. Both price indexes declined this month but remained elevated.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/21/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent.
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail sales were up 0.5 percent month over month. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index–Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the 2 preceding months.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-yearbasis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit–Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
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Week 22 Talking Points – What a Quarter
May’s impressive rally in Tech (+19%) helped drive the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. This followed April’s extremely strong index gains. This week saw new all-time highs on Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Russell 200 and the S&P 600. Semiconductors and memory companies continued their strength, with Micron becoming the latest $1T+ market-cap stock as the memory space racked up huge gains. The software space also continued its recovery (+8.1%). Other outperformers included airlines, tech hardware, networking/communications, industrial metals, life sciences, and quantum computing.
Treasuries were mostly weaker in May, with the 2Y yield rising 12 bp. The bond was a bit firmer; the 30Y yield touched 5.22% on May 19th before coming back below the 5% level by month’s end. The dollar was stronger, Gold was slightly lower, settling down 0.8%; silver rose 2.4%. Bitcoin futures dropped 3.8%. WTI crude ended down 16.9%, back below $90/barrel. Amid the current talk of a US-Iran MOU, the December WTI contract ended the month below $79/barrel.
AI tailwinds continued to blow: The market continued to see strong tailwinds from AI amid intense compute demand and expansive capex plans. But investors (and policymakers) also continued to debate monetization prospects and extent/timeline of ROI and productivity benefits.
Possible US-Iran MOU on the horizon: The US-Iran conflict remained in an uneasy status quo for much of the month, with several flare-ups failing to disrupt expectations for an eventual negotiated settlement. Developments near month-end suggested the sides could be close to a memorandum of understanding leading to a 60-day ceasefire extension and more detailed negotiations.
Inflation worries persist: Price pressures remained evident in May amid elevated energy prices and some hotter data readings (including higher April core CPI). Affordability remained a key element in depressed consumer sentiment, while several Fed policymakers cited untamed inflation and uncertain war/energy impacts as keeping the door open to tighter policy.
Concerns about consumer stress: Consumer resilience has been a big bullish talking point this year, but there was increased focus recently on pressures from rising prices and a widening K-shaped gap (with lower-income households’ spending more energy-intensive). Corporate commentary continued to show resilient spending overall, but also increased buyer caution.
Big Q1 earnings season: First-quarter earnings reports largely came to a close in May, with S&P 500 constituents posting blended earnings growth of nearly 29%, the best since Q4’21. The +17.1% magnitude of these beats was also the highest since Q1’21. However, there remained a big divergence in earnings growth between the Mag 7 names (~+63%) vs the remaining 493 (~+17%).
Fed leadership changeover: Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell as Fed chair, though analysts noted he may find it challenging to fulfill dove’s hopes given the inflation backdrop and policymakers’ concerns. Trump seemed to give him some cover, saying “I’m going to let him do what he wants to do” but also saying “we don’t want to stop greatness.”
Fixed Income – Treasury yields moved modestly lower this week as falling energy prices reduced inflation concerns. Credit spreads tightened across both investment-grade and high-yield markets as investors rotated back toward risk assets following improving ceasefire developments
April FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Energy Complex – Energy was the week’s biggest reversal trade. The market moved from pricing a potential supply shock to pricing a gradual normalization of Middle East exports. Despite falling inventories, oil declined sharply as traders unwound the geopolitical premium. The key question for June is whether the ceasefire holds and whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to something resembling normal operations.
Metals Complex – Gold rebounded from early-week weakness as lower oil prices and a softer dollar offset reduced geopolitical concerns. Silver was little changed.
Employment Picture –
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 5/28/2026 – In the week ending May 23, initial claims were 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 202,500 to 202,750.
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/8/2026
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separationschanged little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Durable Goods – Released 5/28/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.
Personal Income – Released 5/28/2026 – Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $114.0 billion in April. Personal saving was $611.7 billion in April, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 2.6 percent.
GDP, 1st Q, 2nd Est. – Released 5/28/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were exports, investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/26/2026 – Consumer Confidence dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 3.2 points.
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 5/21/2026 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised March rate of 1,363,000, but is 0.2 percent below the April 2025 rate of 1,445,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 872,000; this is 2.6 percent below the revised March figure of 895,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 514,000 in April.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 5/28/2026 – From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.92 million units in April.
Philly Fed Index – Released 5/21/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell sharply this month. The employment index ticked up but remained negative, continuing to suggest overall declines in employment. Both price indexes declined this month but remained elevated.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/21/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent.
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail sales were up 0.5 percent month over month. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. Core CPI rose 0.4 percent in April, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the 2 preceding months.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-yearbasis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit – Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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