Major US equity indices were mixed this week. After dropping last Friday, the S&P continued to slide Monday-Wednesday before gaining its footing to finish higher on Thursday and Friday.
Treasuries were stronger across the curve, with yields down 4-6 bp. The dollar was firmer against the major crosses, particularly vs the yen after the BoJ’s rate cut; DXY +0.3%. Gold was up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures dropped 2.4%, rebounding a bit on Friday after again testing post-April lows. WTI crude settled down 1.6% as concerns about oversupply in 2026 more than offset geopolitical concerns regarding Venezuela and Ukraine.
AI remained a very vital theme for the market this week. Major AI infrastructure names saw additional scrutiny after reports of stalled negotiations for a $10B Michigan datacenter. However, other AI headlines from the week were more upbeat, including a very well-received earnings report from Micron; takeaways were widely positive on memory cycle leverage to AI/datacenter demand. OpenAI is reportedly in talks with Amazon about making a $10B investment and a pledge to use its chips; also reports OpenAI holding a funding round to raise $100B and an $830B valuation.
It was a data-heavy week as government agencies continued to play catch-up after the government shutdown: November nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected, up 64K after an estimated 105K decline in October; August and September results were revised lower. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. However, analysts noted the mixed report did little to shift preexisting thoughts about a gradually cooling labor market.
November CPI was up 2.7% y/y, well below the 3.1% consensus; core prices were up 2.6% y/y (overall October figures were not computed due to data-collection gaps from the shutdown). While there were some questions about possible inaccuracies in the noisy report.
Elsewhere, November core retail sales beat. The December NY and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys both printed in contraction. Weekly jobless claims were lower than consensus. UMich final December consumer sentiment printed a bit weaker than the flash, though year-ahead inflation expectations also ticked down. November existing-home sales hit consensus.
It was a much less busy week of Fedspeak, though Governor Waller reiterated his preference for more cuts (telling CNBC policy is 50-100 bp above neutral),Governor Miran argued “phantom inflation” is pushing the Fed to keep policy unnecessarily tight, and NY Fed’s Williams said there is no urgency to act further right now.
There was more noise (but not much signal) in the headlines about Trump’s eventual Fed chair pick. Investors still see economic advisor Hassett as thefavorite, though there were two articles out this week suggesting administration insiders may have reservations about him. Warsh and Waller seem to remain in the mix, while BlackRock’s Rick Rieder may be interviewed in later this month.
Fixed Income – Treasury yields were rangebound but sensitive to data: Softer inflation initially lifted bonds, but uncertainty around data quality and labor market strength tempered aggressive moves. Yields broadly held within familiar ranges falling modestly.
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD rose slightly snapping a 3 week losing streak.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 6 this week. There are now 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Gasoline continued lower hitting prices last seen back in February 21’.
Metals Complex – Precious metals continued to attract flows and hold firm. Silver notched another all-time high on Friday
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 12/18/2025 In the week ending December 13, adjusted initial claims were 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 64k in November after falling the prior month. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index–Released 12/18/2025– The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/3/25 Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index– Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit–Released 12/5/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/25/2025 – Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months. Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer:This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 51, 2025
Major US equity indices were mixed this week. After dropping last Friday, the S&P continued to slide Monday-Wednesday before gaining its footing to finish higher on Thursday and Friday.
Treasuries were stronger across the curve, with yields down 4-6 bp. The dollar was firmer against the major crosses, particularly vs the yen after the BoJ’s rate cut; DXY +0.3%. Gold was up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures dropped 2.4%, rebounding a bit on Friday after again testing post-April lows. WTI crude settled down 1.6% as concerns about oversupply in 2026 more than offset geopolitical concerns regarding Venezuela and Ukraine.
AI remained a very vital theme for the market this week. Major AI infrastructure names saw additional scrutiny after reports of stalled negotiations for a $10B Michigan datacenter. However, other AI headlines from the week were more upbeat, including a very well-received earnings report from Micron; takeaways were widely positive on memory cycle leverage to AI/datacenter demand. OpenAI is reportedly in talks with Amazon about making a $10B investment and a pledge to use its chips; also reports OpenAI holding a funding round to raise $100B and an $830B valuation.
It was a data-heavy week as government agencies continued to play catch-up after the government shutdown: November nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected, up 64K after an estimated 105K decline in October; August and September results were revised lower. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. However, analysts noted the mixed report did little to shift preexisting thoughts about a gradually cooling labor market.
November CPI was up 2.7% y/y, well below the 3.1% consensus; core prices were up 2.6% y/y (overall October figures were not computed due to data-collection gaps from the shutdown). While there were some questions about possible inaccuracies in the noisy report.
Elsewhere, November core retail sales beat. The December NY and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys both printed in contraction. Weekly jobless claims were lower than consensus. UMich final December consumer sentiment printed a bit weaker than the flash, though year-ahead inflation expectations also ticked down. November existing-home sales hit consensus.
It was a much less busy week of Fedspeak, though Governor Waller reiterated his preference for more cuts (telling CNBC policy is 50-100 bp above neutral),Governor Miran argued “phantom inflation” is pushing the Fed to keep policy unnecessarily tight, and NY Fed’s Williams said there is no urgency to act further right now.
There was more noise (but not much signal) in the headlines about Trump’s eventual Fed chair pick. Investors still see economic advisor Hassett as thefavorite, though there were two articles out this week suggesting administration insiders may have reservations about him. Warsh and Waller seem to remain in the mix, while BlackRock’s Rick Rieder may be interviewed in later this month.
Fixed Income – Treasury yields were rangebound but sensitive to data: Softer inflation initially lifted bonds, but uncertainty around data quality and labor market strength tempered aggressive moves. Yields broadly held within familiar ranges falling modestly.
December FOMC Statement October Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD rose slightly snapping a 3 week losing streak.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 6 this week. There are now 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Gasoline continued lower hitting prices last seen back in February 21’.
Metals Complex – Precious metals continued to attract flows and hold firm. Silver notched another all-time high on Friday
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 12/18/2025 In the week ending December 13, adjusted initial claims were 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 64k in November after falling the prior month. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index – Released 12/18/2025 – The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/3/25 Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index – Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit – Released 12/5/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 11/25/2025 – Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months. Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
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Disclaimer: This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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