Small and mid-caps outperformed their much larger brethren in November. The S&P 500 was essentially flat after trading down more than 4.5%. The S&P 600 small caps rallied 2.5% while mid caps gained 1.9% for the month. Value also reigned in November, gaining over 2.5% while growth fell almost 2%. AI, retail favorites, unprofitable tech, crypto and quantum computing were some of the notable themes that underperformed in November. The bulk of the Mag 7 names were weaker with only Alphabet and Apple bucking the trend with the former helped by the Gemini 3 launch excitement/AI leadership shakeup trade.
Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve steepening. The yield on the 2-year note fell ~10 bp to 3.50%. The yield on the 10-year note fell ~7 bp to 4.02%. The dollar index was down 0.3% after a 2%+ rally in October. Gold gained more than 5%, its fifth straight monthly advance. Bitcoin futures fell nearly 20%. WTI crude fell over 3.5%, its fourth straight monthly decline.
The notable developments in November revolved around the big swing in December Fed easing expectations, traction behind the AI scrutiny theme, momentum unwinds/thematic basket volatility and big/broad-based bounce in equities over the last week or so of the month. Amid a lot of moving pieces beneath the surface, the bullish fundamental narrative surrounding double-digit earnings growth, a solid macro backdrop, elevated hyperscaler AI capex, heightened retail impulse, corporate buybacks, favorable seasonality and looming fiscal impulse seemed to remain largely intact.
In terms of the AI scrutiny theme, the usual suspects were in focus. These included concerns over the sustainability and quality of spend commitments, hyperscaler AI capex>FCF/buybacks, ROI/productivity uncertainty, vendor financing/circularity and China competition. OpenAI remained in the crosshairs ($1.4T in spend commitments vs $13B in revenue, government backstop comments), while the financial press highlighted the increasing use of complex debt financing options.
On the Fed front, spillover from Fed Chair Powell’s late-October FOMC press conference comments that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion (“farfrom it”), hawkish Fedspeak and October FOMC minutes that noted “many” Fed officials suggested it would likely be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year pushed the probability of a December rate cut below 30% at one point. However, dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams on Nov 21st triggered a meaningful reversal, with December rate odds accelerating further to above 80% in the final week of the month.
The ramp in December Fed easing expectations drove the big bounce over the last five days of November, with some help from cleaner positioning following the momentum unwind. There was also plenty of support over the course of the month for a largely intact fundamental narrative. Earnings remained the big bullish talking point with a nearly complete Q3 earnings season delivering growth of 13.5%, well above the 7.9% expected at the end of the Q. In addition, the earnings beat rate was 83%, nicely above the 78% five-year average. Despite all the AI scrutiny, there was no shortage of evidence about the insatiable demand for AI compute. This was best highlighted by Nvidia, which beat Q3 revenue by $2B and guided Q4 revenue nearly $3B above consensus. It also highlighted upside to its widely touted $500B Blackwell/Rubin pipeline and pushed back against useful life of chip concerns.
A number of other bullish talking points remained in play in November. The solid macro backdrop theme was supported by the Atlanta Fed’s +3.9% Q3 GDP estimate. Despite the widely discussed cracks, retail earnings tended to support the broader consumer resilience theme (and some names discussed a good November start). Flow dynamics were another positive as Citadel noted retail buying remained elevated (despite some “retail is selling” chatter), US equities saw an 11th straight week of inflows for the final period of the month and BofA pointed out that US equity inflows are annualizing at their second-highest level of all time.
Fixed Income – Yields drifted lower across the curve as softer economic data and a mild downtick in inflation expectations helped ease yields, particularly in the 5–10 year range. The decline was not dramatic, but enough to push total returns into positive territory.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 10 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 38 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold may be off its all time highs from October but its still up 62.73% from its 52-week low of $2592.20 hit Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024 – Across the board precious metals rose on the combination of softer USD, steadier yields, and moderating macro anxiety. While Industrial metals gained on global growth stabilization and improving sentiment indicators
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 11/26/2025 – In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 220,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 224,250 to 224,75
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousingand in federal government.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Producer Price Index– Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/19/2025 – August – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit–Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 48, 2025
Small and mid-caps outperformed their much larger brethren in November. The S&P 500 was essentially flat after trading down more than 4.5%. The S&P 600 small caps rallied 2.5% while mid caps gained 1.9% for the month. Value also reigned in November, gaining over 2.5% while growth fell almost 2%. AI, retail favorites, unprofitable tech, crypto and quantum computing were some of the notable themes that underperformed in November. The bulk of the Mag 7 names were weaker with only Alphabet and Apple bucking the trend with the former helped by the Gemini 3 launch excitement/AI leadership shakeup trade.
Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve steepening. The yield on the 2-year note fell ~10 bp to 3.50%. The yield on the 10-year note fell ~7 bp to 4.02%. The dollar index was down 0.3% after a 2%+ rally in October. Gold gained more than 5%, its fifth straight monthly advance. Bitcoin futures fell nearly 20%. WTI crude fell over 3.5%, its fourth straight monthly decline.
The notable developments in November revolved around the big swing in December Fed easing expectations, traction behind the AI scrutiny theme, momentum unwinds/thematic basket volatility and big/broad-based bounce in equities over the last week or so of the month. Amid a lot of moving pieces beneath the surface, the bullish fundamental narrative surrounding double-digit earnings growth, a solid macro backdrop, elevated hyperscaler AI capex, heightened retail impulse, corporate buybacks, favorable seasonality and looming fiscal impulse seemed to remain largely intact.
In terms of the AI scrutiny theme, the usual suspects were in focus. These included concerns over the sustainability and quality of spend commitments, hyperscaler AI capex>FCF/buybacks, ROI/productivity uncertainty, vendor financing/circularity and China competition. OpenAI remained in the crosshairs ($1.4T in spend commitments vs $13B in revenue, government backstop comments), while the financial press highlighted the increasing use of complex debt financing options.
On the Fed front, spillover from Fed Chair Powell’s late-October FOMC press conference comments that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion (“farfrom it”), hawkish Fedspeak and October FOMC minutes that noted “many” Fed officials suggested it would likely be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year pushed the probability of a December rate cut below 30% at one point. However, dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams on Nov 21st triggered a meaningful reversal, with December rate odds accelerating further to above 80% in the final week of the month.
The ramp in December Fed easing expectations drove the big bounce over the last five days of November, with some help from cleaner positioning following the momentum unwind. There was also plenty of support over the course of the month for a largely intact fundamental narrative. Earnings remained the big bullish talking point with a nearly complete Q3 earnings season delivering growth of 13.5%, well above the 7.9% expected at the end of the Q. In addition, the earnings beat rate was 83%, nicely above the 78% five-year average. Despite all the AI scrutiny, there was no shortage of evidence about the insatiable demand for AI compute. This was best highlighted by Nvidia, which beat Q3 revenue by $2B and guided Q4 revenue nearly $3B above consensus. It also highlighted upside to its widely touted $500B Blackwell/Rubin pipeline and pushed back against useful life of chip concerns.
A number of other bullish talking points remained in play in November. The solid macro backdrop theme was supported by the Atlanta Fed’s +3.9% Q3 GDP estimate. Despite the widely discussed cracks, retail earnings tended to support the broader consumer resilience theme (and some names discussed a good November start). Flow dynamics were another positive as Citadel noted retail buying remained elevated (despite some “retail is selling” chatter), US equities saw an 11th straight week of inflows for the final period of the month and BofA pointed out that US equity inflows are annualizing at their second-highest level of all time.
Fixed Income – Yields drifted lower across the curve as softer economic data and a mild downtick in inflation expectations helped ease yields, particularly in the 5–10 year range. The decline was not dramatic, but enough to push total returns into positive territory.
October FOMC Statement October Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 10 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 38 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold may be off its all time highs from October but its still up 62.73% from its 52-week low of $2592.20 hit Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024 – Across the board precious metals rose on the combination of softer USD, steadier yields, and moderating macro anxiety. While Industrial metals gained on global growth stabilization and improving sentiment indicators
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 11/26/2025 – In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 220,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 224,250 to 224,75
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousingand in federal government.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Producer Price Index – Released 11/26/2025 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in September, Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and rose 0.8 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in September. Note that September PPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations. The September advance in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9 percent.
Durable Goods – Released 11/26/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up two consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $313.7 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $110.7 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up nine of the last ten months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $307.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Machinery, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $39.4 billion
Retail Sales– Released 11/25/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2025, adjusted for seasonality, were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024. Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/19/2025 – August – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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