Markets got a “relief rally” not in the normal sense of a big pop after a downtrend but rather, relief in what J. Powell didn’t say. Markets were bracing for Powell telling us that he was going to hold firm and he thought tariffs would lead to a prolonged inflation. He didn’t say anything like that.
His discussion on inflation and how he is characterizing the tariff impact provided the best clue on actions going forward. He spelled out a compelling case about why tariffs won’t cause an inflation crisis. Prices will go up but he thinks there wont be a lasting impact, more of a one period bump higher. This opens the door to why he feels comfortable cutting rates in the future. The fed is now betting that inflation stays manageable. Despite him essentially doing a 180 on the labor market and expressing concern around potential layoffs, markets are focused on rate cuts.
Markets responded –
US equities were mostly higher this week, as the S&P 500 edged out a slight gain to finish higher for a third-straight week, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq was lower for the first time in three weeks. Small caps also rallied again, outpacing the S&P 500 by over 3% and posting its best week since early July and the Dow hit a new all-time high Friday afternoon. This week’s S&P Global flash PMIs were stronger than expected, with manufacturing the highest in more than three years, while services ticked lower but came in better than expected. The report also noted hiring rose at the fastest pace in over three years. Some fears around debt and deficits were ameliorated by S&P reaffirming its US credit rating, noting tariff revenue is offsetting some of the deficit impact from OBBA, while CBO estimated tariffs could cut US deficits by $4T over the next decade, offsetting the $4.1T impact from the OBBA .
The latest batch of retail earnings also helped add support to the narratives around consumer resiliency and smaller-than-expected tariff impact. Retail earnings and consumer takeaways were the big corporate story of the week, with the latest updates broadly supporting the theme around consumer resilience and tariff mitigation, but cost pressures are expected to accelerate in 2H. Walmart revenue grew more than expected as management said it is keeping prices low by absorbing much of the tariff impact. Management said it has not seen a consumer pullback due to tariffs, but middle- and lower-income households have traded down.
However, the bearish narrative prevailed this week before Powell sparked a Friday rally. The week’s downside was tabbed to factors including some cautious labor market data (initial claims, continuing claims hitting a fresh high since Nov-21) and hotter inflation data (Philly Fed Index, August Flash PMIs), adding to latest fears around stagflation. Other pieces of the bearish narrative included some cracks in the AI story and fears over AI capex.
Regarding AI and Big Tech narrative – Stretched valuations remain the biggest overhang to the group, exacerbated by comments this week by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who said AI may been in a bubble. This week included China’s pushback against Nvidia H20 chips prompted by comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick and a report that the company told component suppliers to stop production related to H20 chips amid China’s push for greater use of homegrown chips. Other cautious AI headlines this week included an MIT study that offered cautious takeaways on corporate AI trends, Meta restructuring its AI division and freezing AI hiring, and more scrutiny on AI models following the recent disappointing performance of GPT-5 release.
However, stocks and Treasuries posted a sharp rally on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Powell said policy is in restrictive territory, and the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. Markets took the comment as cementing a September rate cut, with odds now over 90%, with 53 bp of cuts now priced in through year-end. That reversed some of the pullback earlier in the week after some hawkish Fedspeak from Cleveland’s Hammack and Kansas City’s Schmid, who expressed skepticism over a September rate cut given inflation trends.
Elsewhere, Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if Powell doesn’t over allegations of mortgage fraud. Axios noted that successfully ousting Cook would give Trump a majority over the Fed board, which some economists said could result in higher inflation expectations and longer-term yields if Fed policy is seen as politicized.
Data next week include Monday’s July new home sales; Tuesday’s July durable goods, August Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Fed Index; Thursday’s July pending home sales, and Friday’s July PCE. on Thursday.
Fixed Income: – Treasury yields fell across curve (notably 2y and 10y), sparking rallies in IG credit. Global yields were modestly lower or stable.
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar was on track for a modest gain of around 0.7–0.9% earlier, but the Powell’s (slightly) dovish pivot erased much of that strength on Friday
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 this week. There are 538 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. This week, oil prices edged up in part by falling inventories and a lingering geopolitical uncertainty -particularly the stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Natural gas plummeted for the fifth straight week, Bearish weather forecasts and abundant storage weighed heavily on prices.
Metals Complex- Gold and silver got a slight lift from the dollars’ slide on Friday – Copper is still digesting the late-July U.S. tariff twist (refined copper excluded; levies only on certain semis), which crushed the Comex premium and scrambled physical flows. Price action stabilized but sentiment remains fragile as the tariff trade unwinds.
Employment Picture:
July Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 8/1/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up 1/10th to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
U3 unemployment rate was fell 0.1% to at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2
percent since May 2024
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.2%.
Average work week was rose slightly to 34.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.12, a 0.3% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 8/21/2025 – In the week ending August 16th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 7/29/2025 – The number of job openings fell 400k at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales –Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
Housing Starts– Released 8/19/2025 – Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index– Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index–Released 8/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Consumer Credit–Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 8/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months.
In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 8/1/2025 – Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of $2,199.8 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,036.1 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,058.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 7/31/2025 – Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
1st Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 7/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.
Consumer Confidence– Released 7/29/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.ed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 34, 2025
Markets got a “relief rally” not in the normal sense of a big pop after a downtrend but rather, relief in what J. Powell didn’t say. Markets were bracing for Powell telling us that he was going to hold firm and he thought tariffs would lead to a prolonged inflation. He didn’t say anything like that.
His discussion on inflation and how he is characterizing the tariff impact provided the best clue on actions going forward. He spelled out a compelling case about why tariffs won’t cause an inflation crisis. Prices will go up but he thinks there wont be a lasting impact, more of a one period bump higher. This opens the door to why he feels comfortable cutting rates in the future. The fed is now betting that inflation stays manageable. Despite him essentially doing a 180 on the labor market and expressing concern around potential layoffs, markets are focused on rate cuts.
Markets responded –
US equities were mostly higher this week, as the S&P 500 edged out a slight gain to finish higher for a third-straight week, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq was lower for the first time in three weeks. Small caps also rallied again, outpacing the S&P 500 by over 3% and posting its best week since early July and the Dow hit a new all-time high Friday afternoon. This week’s S&P Global flash PMIs were stronger than expected, with manufacturing the highest in more than three years, while services ticked lower but came in better than expected. The report also noted hiring rose at the fastest pace in over three years. Some fears around debt and deficits were ameliorated by S&P reaffirming its US credit rating, noting tariff revenue is offsetting some of the deficit impact from OBBA, while CBO estimated tariffs could cut US deficits by $4T over the next decade, offsetting the $4.1T impact from the OBBA .
The latest batch of retail earnings also helped add support to the narratives around consumer resiliency and smaller-than-expected tariff impact. Retail earnings and consumer takeaways were the big corporate story of the week, with the latest updates broadly supporting the theme around consumer resilience and tariff mitigation, but cost pressures are expected to accelerate in 2H. Walmart revenue grew more than expected as management said it is keeping prices low by absorbing much of the tariff impact. Management said it has not seen a consumer pullback due to tariffs, but middle- and lower-income households have traded down.
However, the bearish narrative prevailed this week before Powell sparked a Friday rally. The week’s downside was tabbed to factors including some cautious labor market data (initial claims, continuing claims hitting a fresh high since Nov-21) and hotter inflation data (Philly Fed Index, August Flash PMIs), adding to latest fears around stagflation. Other pieces of the bearish narrative included some cracks in the AI story and fears over AI capex.
Regarding AI and Big Tech narrative – Stretched valuations remain the biggest overhang to the group, exacerbated by comments this week by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who said AI may been in a bubble. This week included China’s pushback against Nvidia H20 chips prompted by comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick and a report that the company told component suppliers to stop production related to H20 chips amid China’s push for greater use of homegrown chips. Other cautious AI headlines this week included an MIT study that offered cautious takeaways on corporate AI trends, Meta restructuring its AI division and freezing AI hiring, and more scrutiny on AI models following the recent disappointing performance of GPT-5 release.
However, stocks and Treasuries posted a sharp rally on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Powell said policy is in restrictive territory, and the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. Markets took the comment as cementing a September rate cut, with odds now over 90%, with 53 bp of cuts now priced in through year-end. That reversed some of the pullback earlier in the week after some hawkish Fedspeak from Cleveland’s Hammack and Kansas City’s Schmid, who expressed skepticism over a September rate cut given inflation trends.
Elsewhere, Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if Powell doesn’t over allegations of mortgage fraud. Axios noted that successfully ousting Cook would give Trump a majority over the Fed board, which some economists said could result in higher inflation expectations and longer-term yields if Fed policy is seen as politicized.
Data next week include Monday’s July new home sales; Tuesday’s July durable goods, August Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Fed Index; Thursday’s July pending home sales, and Friday’s July PCE. on Thursday.
Fixed Income: – Treasury yields fell across curve (notably 2y and 10y), sparking rallies in IG credit. Global yields were modestly lower or stable.
July FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar was on track for a modest gain of around 0.7–0.9% earlier, but the Powell’s (slightly) dovish pivot erased much of that strength on Friday
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 this week. There are 538 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. This week, oil prices edged up in part by falling inventories and a lingering geopolitical uncertainty -particularly the stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Natural gas plummeted for the fifth straight week, Bearish weather forecasts and abundant storage weighed heavily on prices.
Metals Complex- Gold and silver got a slight lift from the dollars’ slide on Friday – Copper is still digesting the late-July U.S. tariff twist (refined copper excluded; levies only on certain semis), which crushed the Comex premium and scrambled physical flows. Price action stabilized but sentiment remains fragile as the tariff trade unwinds.
Employment Picture:
July Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 8/1/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up 1/10th to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/21/2025 – In the week ending August 16th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/29/2025 – The number of job openings fell 400k at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Existing Home Sales – Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
Housing Starts– Released 8/19/2025 – Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index – Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months.
In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 8/1/2025 – Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of $2,199.8 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,036.1 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,058.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 7/31/2025 – Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
1st Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 7/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.
Consumer Confidence– Released 7/29/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.ed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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