U.S. equity markets finished mostly lower this week as rising Treasury yields and another sharp increase in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. While economic data continued to point to a resilient economy—with encouraging readings from manufacturing and housing—the prospect of higher energy costs and their potential impact on inflation prompted investors to take a more cautious stance.
Markets spent the week balancing strong AI enthusiasm against rising geopolitical and macro headwinds. Momentum stocks rebounded early in the week before fading some after mixed Mag 7 earnings (against very high bar), while investors largely looked through escalating Middle East tensions despite oil remaining elevated. Higher Treasury yields, driven by oil, fiscal concerns and shifting Fed expectations, also emerged as a modest headwind, though market focus increasingly turned toward next week’s heavy slate of Mag 7 earnings
Energy was one of the week’s standout performers as crude oil extended last week’s rally amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The move higher in oil contributed to rising Treasury yields, as investors grew increasingly concerned that higher energy prices could slow progress on inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer than previously expected.
Despite the pullback in equities, the week’s economic data remained generally constructive. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey pointed to improving business activity, while new home sales and housing starts suggested the housing market continues to stabilize, albeit at a subdued pace. Precious metals were little changed as higher yields and a firmer U.S. dollar offset continued safe-haven demand.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, a busy calendar of mega-cap technology earnings, and several key economic reports that could influence the outlook for interest rates and market leadership heading into August.
Fixed Income –
Treasury yields moved higher again this week as investors continued to price in resilient economic growth, firm inflation, and rising energy prices. The bond market is sending a clear message: the economy remains resilient, but inflation risks have re-emerged. Stronger economic data, combined with higher energy prices, caused investors to push Treasury yields higher this week. While the Fed is still widely expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, markets have become less confident that additional rate cuts are imminent. As a result, fixed-income returns were modestly negative this week, particularly for longer-duration bonds.
Energy Complex – Oil has now posted back-to-back weeks of strong gains, reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium rather than a sudden improvement in global demand. While current prices remain manageable for the broader economy, continued disruptions to Middle East shipping lanes could keep energy markets volatile and sustain upward pressure on inflation in the months ahead.
Metals Complex – Precious metals remain in a consolidation phase. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets, but higher interest rates and a resilient U.S. dollar are limiting further gains. Until investors receive greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, gold and silver are likely to remain range-bound
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 7/23/2026 – In the week ending July 18, initial claims were 187,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000. The4-week moving average was 207,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 214,250 to 214,750.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/2/2026 – Hiring slowed significantly in June, employers added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half of expectations. April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate improved for the “wrong” reason. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but this wasn’t because hiring accelerated.
Instead, approximately 720,000 people left the labor force. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years. In other words, fewer people were actively looking for work, which mathematically lowered the unemployment rate.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/30/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.6 million in May. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2026 – New Home Sales rose 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 units, ending a two-month decline. Despite the monthly improvement, sales remain 5.6% below June 2025 levels. The June report suggests the new home market is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Sales improved modestly, but demand remains constrained by elevated borrowing costs. Encouragingly, softer home prices and ample inventory are helping improve affordability at the margin, which could support sales if mortgage rates begin to ease. For now, housing continues to reflect an economy that is slowing modestly rather than contracting.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 7/17/2026 – June housing starts report was stronger than expected at first glance, with total housing starts jumping 19.0% to an annualized rate of 1.427 million units. The headline increase in housing starts was encouraging, but the underlying trend remains mixed. The sharp gain was fueled by a rebound in multifamily projects, while the more economically significant single-family market continues to struggle under the weight of elevated mortgage rates, higher construction costs, and softer buyer demand. The decline in building permits also suggests builders remain cautious about the outlook, indicating residential construction is likely to remain a modest headwind to economic growth over the near term.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/26 – June industrial production edged higher, extending the recovery in U.S. manufacturing. While factory output was flat during the month, second-quarter manufacturing grew at its strongest pace in roughly five years, supported by continued investment in AI infrastructure and technology. Capacity utilization remained steady at 76.1%, well below historical averages, suggesting the industrial economy continues to expand without creating significant inflationary pressure
Philly Fed Index – Released 7/16/26 – The June Philadelphia Fed survey suggests the manufacturing sector is firming after several uneven months. Improvements in activity, new orders, shipments, and employment indicate demand is strengthening, while elevated input costs show inflation pressures have not fully subsided. Overall, the report supports the view that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, though persistent price pressures may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about easing monetary policy.
Retail Sales – Released 7/16/26 – June retail sales increased 0.2%, extending the streak of positive consumer spending, though growth moderated from May’s exceptionally strong pace. Beneath the surface, the report was stronger than the headline suggests. Lower gasoline prices reduced receipts at service stations, while auto sales and online shopping remained robust. The closely watched retail control group rose 0.5%, indicating consumers continue to support economic growth despite a softer labor market and ongoing inflation concerns.
Producer Price Index – Released – 7/15/2026 – The June Producer Price Index reinforced the cooling inflation story. Wholesale prices fell 0.3% during the month, the largest decline in more than a year, driven primarily by a sharp drop in energy prices. Goods prices posted their biggest monthly decline since 2022, while services inflation remained modestly positive. Together with the June CPI report, the data suggests inflation pressures continue to ease, although higher oil prices since month-end remain a risk for future reports.
Consumer Price Index –Released 7/14/2026 – June’s CPI report was a welcome surprise. Headline inflation fell to 3.5% year-over-year, while core inflation eased to 2.6% and was flat on the month. Much of the improvement came from lower gasoline prices, but the lack of acceleration in core inflation was equally encouraging. While inflation hasn’t been defeated, the report supports the view that underlying price pressures continue to moderate and gives the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient
Consumer Credit –Released 7/8/2026 – In May, total consumer credit was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/7/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2026 from $54.6 billion in April to $77.6 billion, as exports decreased and imports increased. The goods deficit increased $23.6 billion in May to $106.5 billion. The services surplus increased $0.6 billion in May to $28.9 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/3/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.523 million units in June. This made for one of the strongest monthly sales rates of the year.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/2/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2026 – The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, although the pace of growth moderated slightly. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3, down from 54.0 in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion after a prolonged period of contraction in 2025. While the headline reading came in just below expectations, it remains consistent with an economy that continues to grow at a healthy pace. Based on historical relationships, the June reading is consistent with roughly 2% annualized real GDP growth.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2026 – Construction spending during May 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,210.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $2,207.1 billion. The May figure is 1.5 percent below the May 2025 estimate of $2,244.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending was down 2.7 percent for the same period in 2025.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 7/1/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% in May 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West, and fell in the Northeast.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/30/2026 – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged higher in June, rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May. While the increase marked the first improvement in two months, the reading came in below economists’ expectations, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite easing gasoline prices and a resilient economy.
Durable Goods – Released 6/25/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion. This followed an 8.5 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $18.5 billion or 14.0 percent to $113.5 billion.
Personal Income – Released 6/25/2026 – Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $159.9 billion in May. Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.0 percent
GDP, 1st Q, 3rd Est. – Released 6/25/26 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were increases in investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 6/25/2026 – The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation moved higher in May, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, marking the fastest annual pace since April 2023. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, Core PCE rose 0.3% during the month and 3.4% year over year, indicating that underlying inflation also remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target
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Week 30 Talking Points – Tempered Optimism on Higher Energy Prices and Rising Yields
U.S. equity markets finished mostly lower this week as rising Treasury yields and another sharp increase in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. While economic data continued to point to a resilient economy—with encouraging readings from manufacturing and housing—the prospect of higher energy costs and their potential impact on inflation prompted investors to take a more cautious stance.
Markets spent the week balancing strong AI enthusiasm against rising geopolitical and macro headwinds. Momentum stocks rebounded early in the week before fading some after mixed Mag 7 earnings (against very high bar), while investors largely looked through escalating Middle East tensions despite oil remaining elevated. Higher Treasury yields, driven by oil, fiscal concerns and shifting Fed expectations, also emerged as a modest headwind, though market focus increasingly turned toward next week’s heavy slate of Mag 7 earnings
Energy was one of the week’s standout performers as crude oil extended last week’s rally amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The move higher in oil contributed to rising Treasury yields, as investors grew increasingly concerned that higher energy prices could slow progress on inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer than previously expected.
Despite the pullback in equities, the week’s economic data remained generally constructive. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey pointed to improving business activity, while new home sales and housing starts suggested the housing market continues to stabilize, albeit at a subdued pace. Precious metals were little changed as higher yields and a firmer U.S. dollar offset continued safe-haven demand.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, a busy calendar of mega-cap technology earnings, and several key economic reports that could influence the outlook for interest rates and market leadership heading into August.
Fixed Income –
Treasury yields moved higher again this week as investors continued to price in resilient economic growth, firm inflation, and rising energy prices. The bond market is sending a clear message: the economy remains resilient, but inflation risks have re-emerged. Stronger economic data, combined with higher energy prices, caused investors to push Treasury yields higher this week. While the Fed is still widely expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, markets have become less confident that additional rate cuts are imminent. As a result, fixed-income returns were modestly negative this week, particularly for longer-duration bonds.
June FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Energy Complex – Oil has now posted back-to-back weeks of strong gains, reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium rather than a sudden improvement in global demand. While current prices remain manageable for the broader economy, continued disruptions to Middle East shipping lanes could keep energy markets volatile and sustain upward pressure on inflation in the months ahead.
Metals Complex – Precious metals remain in a consolidation phase. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets, but higher interest rates and a resilient U.S. dollar are limiting further gains. Until investors receive greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, gold and silver are likely to remain range-bound
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 7/23/2026 – In the week ending July 18, initial claims were 187,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000. The4-week moving average was 207,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 214,250 to 214,750.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/2/2026 – Hiring slowed significantly in June, employers added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half of expectations. April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate improved for the “wrong” reason. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but this wasn’t because hiring accelerated.
Instead, approximately 720,000 people left the labor force. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years. In other words, fewer people were actively looking for work, which mathematically lowered the unemployment rate.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/30/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.6 million in May. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2026 – New Home Sales rose 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 units, ending a two-month decline. Despite the monthly improvement, sales remain 5.6% below June 2025 levels. The June report suggests the new home market is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Sales improved modestly, but demand remains constrained by elevated borrowing costs. Encouragingly, softer home prices and ample inventory are helping improve affordability at the margin, which could support sales if mortgage rates begin to ease. For now, housing continues to reflect an economy that is slowing modestly rather than contracting.
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 7/17/2026 – June housing starts report was stronger than expected at first glance, with total housing starts jumping 19.0% to an annualized rate of 1.427 million units. The headline increase in housing starts was encouraging, but the underlying trend remains mixed. The sharp gain was fueled by a rebound in multifamily projects, while the more economically significant single-family market continues to struggle under the weight of elevated mortgage rates, higher construction costs, and softer buyer demand. The decline in building permits also suggests builders remain cautious about the outlook, indicating residential construction is likely to remain a modest headwind to economic growth over the near term.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/17/26 – June industrial production edged higher, extending the recovery in U.S. manufacturing. While factory output was flat during the month, second-quarter manufacturing grew at its strongest pace in roughly five years, supported by continued investment in AI infrastructure and technology. Capacity utilization remained steady at 76.1%, well below historical averages, suggesting the industrial economy continues to expand without creating significant inflationary pressure
Philly Fed Index – Released 7/16/26 – The June Philadelphia Fed survey suggests the manufacturing sector is firming after several uneven months. Improvements in activity, new orders, shipments, and employment indicate demand is strengthening, while elevated input costs show inflation pressures have not fully subsided. Overall, the report supports the view that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, though persistent price pressures may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about easing monetary policy.
Retail Sales – Released 7/16/26 – June retail sales increased 0.2%, extending the streak of positive consumer spending, though growth moderated from May’s exceptionally strong pace. Beneath the surface, the report was stronger than the headline suggests. Lower gasoline prices reduced receipts at service stations, while auto sales and online shopping remained robust. The closely watched retail control group rose 0.5%, indicating consumers continue to support economic growth despite a softer labor market and ongoing inflation concerns.
Producer Price Index – Released – 7/15/2026 – The June Producer Price Index reinforced the cooling inflation story. Wholesale prices fell 0.3% during the month, the largest decline in more than a year, driven primarily by a sharp drop in energy prices. Goods prices posted their biggest monthly decline since 2022, while services inflation remained modestly positive. Together with the June CPI report, the data suggests inflation pressures continue to ease, although higher oil prices since month-end remain a risk for future reports.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/14/2026 – June’s CPI report was a welcome surprise. Headline inflation fell to 3.5% year-over-year, while core inflation eased to 2.6% and was flat on the month. Much of the improvement came from lower gasoline prices, but the lack of acceleration in core inflation was equally encouraging. While inflation hasn’t been defeated, the report supports the view that underlying price pressures continue to moderate and gives the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient
Consumer Credit – Released 7/8/2026 – In May, total consumer credit was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/7/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2026 from $54.6 billion in April to $77.6 billion, as exports decreased and imports increased. The goods deficit increased $23.6 billion in May to $106.5 billion. The services surplus increased $0.6 billion in May to $28.9 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/3/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.523 million units in June. This made for one of the strongest monthly sales rates of the year.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2026 – The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, although the pace of growth moderated slightly. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3, down from 54.0 in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion after a prolonged period of contraction in 2025. While the headline reading came in just below expectations, it remains consistent with an economy that continues to grow at a healthy pace. Based on historical relationships, the June reading is consistent with roughly 2% annualized real GDP growth.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2026 – Construction spending during May 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,210.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $2,207.1 billion. The May figure is 1.5 percent below the May 2025 estimate of $2,244.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending was down 2.7 percent for the same period in 2025.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 7/1/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% in May 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West, and fell in the Northeast.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/30/2026 – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged higher in June, rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May. While the increase marked the first improvement in two months, the reading came in below economists’ expectations, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite easing gasoline prices and a resilient economy.
Durable Goods – Released 6/25/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion. This followed an 8.5 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $18.5 billion or 14.0 percent to $113.5 billion.
Personal Income – Released 6/25/2026 – Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $159.9 billion in May. Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.0 percent
GDP, 1st Q, 3rd Est. – Released 6/25/26 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were increases in investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 6/25/2026 – The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation moved higher in May, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, marking the fastest annual pace since April 2023. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, Core PCE rose 0.3% during the month and 3.4% year over year, indicating that underlying inflation also remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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