Positive earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon helped the S&P 500 recoup its post tariff losses and push a 9 day win streak. The S&P 500 notched its first back-to-back weekly advances since January and the index ending the week on a nine-day streak of gains (the longest since November 2004). The S&P is now back to levels above the early April drop following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Big tech was mostly higher. Other out performers included software, semis, banks, credit cards, IBs, asset managers, insurers, exchanges, transports, machinery, building products, and China tech.Most-shorted names also rallied this week. To the downside, managed care, pharma, HPCs, paper/packaging, and energy were among the laggards.
Treasuries were weaker across the curve, reversing some Monday/Tuesday weakness as solid economic data helped trim the market’s rate-cut expectations. As expected, Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement made no change to issuance plans and continued to assert these are unlikely to change for the next several quarters. The dollar was better on the major crosses, paring some of its WTD gains on Friday. Gold declined 1.7%, its second consecutive weekly drop. Oil was notably weaker, with WTI dropping 7.5% and ending the week back below the $60/barrel mark (Saudi Arabia indicated this week it could live with lower prices for some time).
The market mood was helped by further signs of deescalating trade/tariff tensions. On Tuesday, President Trump signed an order confirming some expected temporary relief for US automakers. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick this week both talked up ongoing negotiations, with the latter telling CNBC one trade deal was done and just awaiting final approval. Mexico’s Sheinbaum said she had a very positive conversation with Trump and that work on improving her country’s trade relationship with the US will continue. And while the are they/aren’t they debate about US-China talks continued to play out,China said it was “evaluating” recent US overtures, and media reports Friday suggested Beijing may be considering opening talks on fentanyl as a way to jump-start broader negotiations.
It was one of the peak weeks of the Q1 earnings season, with multiple Mag 7 names reporting. Apple’s report showed iPhone revenue was a bright spot, though Services missed and growth guidance underwhelmed. Microsoft reported broad-based strength, with some focus on Azure growth acceleration and increasing AI contribution. Amazon revenue was largely in line, though analysts flagged AWS deceleration and tariffs tempering the profitability outlook. Meta revenue was a strong beat, with takeaways focused on the company’s AI roadmap, improved AI monetization/engagement, and upwardly revised capex guidance. This week we get Q1 earnings reports on 92 S&P constituents though we are now past most of the megacap names; NVDA, will be the last of the Mag 7 names to report, but wont release until May 28th.
It was a big week of largely better-than-feared economic data. April nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected (though the previous two months were revised down). ISM manufacturing was firmer than consensus. March core PCE was cooler, and March pending-home sales printed at their strongest since 2023. The market even looked past the first q/q decline in GDP since Q1’22, with the headline seeing a big impact from a huge surge of imports from those front-running tariffs. Nevertheless, April’s consumer confidence report continued to reflect unease, printing at its lowest level since spring 2020; initial and continuing jobless claims also moved higher.
Overall, the week’s bullish mood was helped by continued signs of tariff-tension off-ramps and prospects for further progress. Moreover, the Q1 earnings season continued to outperform expectations, with the blended EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 now sitting at 12.8% (in contrast to the 7.2% expected on 30-Mar). Corporate commentary has also been constructive, helping to illustrate consumer resilience, tariff-mitigation efforts, and a still robust AI secular growth theme. And while “soft” data such as sentiment and regional manufacturing surveys continue to suggest anxieties and uncertainty, these have not yet translated into a slowdown in many hard-data releases. All that said, some corporate reports have underwhelmed, Trump has continued to lob criticism at the Fed, Republicans’ tax-cut bill still faces a complicated path forward, and some commentators believe it is only a matter of time before uncertainty translates into an economic downturn.
The Fed will hold its May FOMC meeting this week, though there are broad expectations that rates will remain unchanged. Fedspeak will restart after the blackout, with NY Fed’s Williams set to deliver remarks on Friday while Governor Cook and regional presidents Musalem and Hammack will participate in a panel discussion. It will be a fairly light week on the economic front, with the big reports April ISM Services; March US trade balance; and weekly jobless claims and Q1 productivity.
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 3 last week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 21 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 5/2/2025 – The US Economyadded 177k nonfarm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents to $36.06. Hiring highlights include +51k Healthcare, +8k Social Assistance, +14k Financial Activities, and +29k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents/0.2% to $36.06.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.6%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 5/1/2025 – In the week ending April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,000 an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 4/29/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2025 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, 0.3 percent lower compared to March. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 60th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in contraction territory, registering 47.2 percent, 2.0 percentage points higher than the 45.2 percent recorded in March. The April reading of the Production Index (44.0 percent) is 4.3 percentage points lower than March’s figure of 48.3 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/1/2025 – Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, down 0.5 percent from the February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of $2,135.8 billion.
Chicago PMI– Released 4/30/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April and fell to 44.6 from 47.6 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 17th successive month in April.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.833 million units in March.
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2025 – Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 4/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/29/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 92.9 to 86.0 in April. The Present Situation Index which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 0.9 points to 133.5. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up three consecutive months, increased $26.6 billion or 9.2% to $315.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.9% February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4%. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $26.5 billion or 27.0% to $124.6 billion.
Existing Home Sales –Released 4/24/2025 –Existing home sales in March decreased 5.9% from February and decreased 2.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.02 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $403,700, up 2.7% from one year ago.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.4 percent above the revised February rate of 674,000 and is 6.0 percent above the March 2024 estimate of 683,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $403,600. The average sales price was $497,700.
Housing Starts– Released 4/17/2025 – March housing starts came in at 1,324,000, 11.4% below the February estimate but is 1.9% above the March 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.6% above the February rate at $1,482,000 but is 0.2% below the March 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 4/16/2025 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in March after rising 0.7% in February. Industrial Production increased 5.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Manufacturing increased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 5.8%. Mining increased 0.6%. Total industrial production in March was 1.3% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in March, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/16/2025– Headline retail sales exceeded expectations and were up 1.4% in March and are up 4.6% above March 2024.
Producer Price Index– Released 4/11/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased by 0.4 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index–Released 4/10/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 4/7/2025 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 4/3/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January. February exports were $278.5 billion, $8.0 billion more than January exports. February imports were $401.1 billion, $0.1 billion less than January imports. The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.8 billion to $147.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.8 billion to $24.3 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 4/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the ninth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent 2.7 percent lower than February’s reading of 53.5 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, and Consumer Credit.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 18, 2025
Positive earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon helped the S&P 500 recoup its post tariff losses and push a 9 day win streak. The S&P 500 notched its first back-to-back weekly advances since January and the index ending the week on a nine-day streak of gains (the longest since November 2004). The S&P is now back to levels above the early April drop following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Big tech was mostly higher. Other out performers included software, semis, banks, credit cards, IBs, asset managers, insurers, exchanges, transports, machinery, building products, and China tech. Most-shorted names also rallied this week. To the downside, managed care, pharma, HPCs, paper/packaging, and energy were among the laggards.
Treasuries were weaker across the curve, reversing some Monday/Tuesday weakness as solid economic data helped trim the market’s rate-cut expectations. As expected, Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement made no change to issuance plans and continued to assert these are unlikely to change for the next several quarters. The dollar was better on the major crosses, paring some of its WTD gains on Friday. Gold declined 1.7%, its second consecutive weekly drop. Oil was notably weaker, with WTI dropping 7.5% and ending the week back below the $60/barrel mark (Saudi Arabia indicated this week it could live with lower prices for some time).
The market mood was helped by further signs of deescalating trade/tariff tensions. On Tuesday, President Trump signed an order confirming some expected temporary relief for US automakers. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick this week both talked up ongoing negotiations, with the latter telling CNBC one trade deal was done and just awaiting final approval. Mexico’s Sheinbaum said she had a very positive conversation with Trump and that work on improving her country’s trade relationship with the US will continue. And while the are they/aren’t they debate about US-China talks continued to play out, China said it was “evaluating” recent US overtures, and media reports Friday suggested Beijing may be considering opening talks on fentanyl as a way to jump-start broader negotiations.
It was one of the peak weeks of the Q1 earnings season, with multiple Mag 7 names reporting. Apple’s report showed iPhone revenue was a bright spot, though Services missed and growth guidance underwhelmed. Microsoft reported broad-based strength, with some focus on Azure growth acceleration and increasing AI contribution. Amazon revenue was largely in line, though analysts flagged AWS deceleration and tariffs tempering the profitability outlook. Meta revenue was a strong beat, with takeaways focused on the company’s AI roadmap, improved AI monetization/engagement, and upwardly revised capex guidance. This week we get Q1 earnings reports on 92 S&P constituents though we are now past most of the megacap names; NVDA, will be the last of the Mag 7 names to report, but wont release until May 28th.
It was a big week of largely better-than-feared economic data. April nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected (though the previous two months were revised down). ISM manufacturing was firmer than consensus. March core PCE was cooler, and March pending-home sales printed at their strongest since 2023. The market even looked past the first q/q decline in GDP since Q1’22, with the headline seeing a big impact from a huge surge of imports from those front-running tariffs. Nevertheless, April’s consumer confidence report continued to reflect unease, printing at its lowest level since spring 2020; initial and continuing jobless claims also moved higher.
Overall, the week’s bullish mood was helped by continued signs of tariff-tension off-ramps and prospects for further progress. Moreover, the Q1 earnings season continued to outperform expectations, with the blended EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 now sitting at 12.8% (in contrast to the 7.2% expected on 30-Mar). Corporate commentary has also been constructive, helping to illustrate consumer resilience, tariff-mitigation efforts, and a still robust AI secular growth theme. And while “soft” data such as sentiment and regional manufacturing surveys continue to suggest anxieties and uncertainty, these have not yet translated into a slowdown in many hard-data releases. All that said, some corporate reports have underwhelmed, Trump has continued to lob criticism at the Fed, Republicans’ tax-cut bill still faces a complicated path forward, and some commentators believe it is only a matter of time before uncertainty translates into an economic downturn.
The Fed will hold its May FOMC meeting this week, though there are broad expectations that rates will remain unchanged. Fedspeak will restart after the blackout, with NY Fed’s Williams set to deliver remarks on Friday while Governor Cook and regional presidents Musalem and Hammack will participate in a panel discussion. It will be a fairly light week on the economic front, with the big reports April ISM Services; March US trade balance; and weekly jobless claims and Q1 productivity.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve
March FOMC Statement January Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex
The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 3 last week. There are 584 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 21 from last year.
Metals Complex
Employment Picture –
April Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/2/2025 – The US Economyadded 177k nonfarm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents to $36.06. Hiring highlights include +51k Healthcare, +8k Social Assistance, +14k Financial Activities, and +29k Transportation and Warehousing.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/1/2025 – In the week ending April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,000 an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 4/29/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2025 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, 0.3 percent lower compared to March. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 60th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in contraction territory, registering 47.2 percent, 2.0 percentage points higher than the 45.2 percent recorded in March. The April reading of the Production Index (44.0 percent) is 4.3 percentage points lower than March’s figure of 48.3 percent.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/1/2025 – Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, down 0.5 percent from the February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of $2,135.8 billion.
Chicago PMI – Released 4/30/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April and fell to 44.6 from 47.6 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 17th successive month in April.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.833 million units in March.
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2025 – Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent).
Advance Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 4/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/29/2025 – Consumer Confidence decreased from 92.9 to 86.0 in April. The Present Situation Index which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 0.9 points to 133.5. The Expectations Index which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 4/24/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up three consecutive months, increased $26.6 billion or 9.2% to $315.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.9% February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4%. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $26.5 billion or 27.0% to $124.6 billion.
Existing Home Sales – Released 4/24/2025 – Existing home sales in March decreased 5.9% from February and decreased 2.4% year over year. Existing home sales decreased to 4.02 million in March seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to $403,700, up 2.7% from one year ago.
New Residential Sales – Released 4/23/2025 – Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.4 percent above the revised February rate of 674,000 and is 6.0 percent above the March 2024 estimate of 683,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $403,600. The average sales price was $497,700.
Housing Starts– Released 4/17/2025 – March housing starts came in at 1,324,000, 11.4% below the February estimate but is 1.9% above the March 2024 rate. Building permits were 1.6% above the February rate at $1,482,000 but is 0.2% below the March 2024 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 4/16/2025 – Industrial production decreased 0.3% in March after rising 0.7% in February. Industrial Production increased 5.5% in the first quarter of 2025. Manufacturing increased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 5.8%. Mining increased 0.6%. Total industrial production in March was 1.3% above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in March, a rate that is 1.8% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales– Released 4/16/2025 – Headline retail sales exceeded expectations and were up 1.4% in March and are up 4.6% above March 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 4/11/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased by 0.4 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.1 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
Consumer Price Index – Released 4/10/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 4/7/2025 – Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2 percent in February. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/3/2025 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January. February exports were $278.5 billion, $8.0 billion more than January exports. February imports were $401.1 billion, $0.1 billion less than January imports. The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.8 billion to $147.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.8 billion to $24.3 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the ninth consecutive month. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent 2.7 percent lower than February’s reading of 53.5 percent.
This week we get data on Services PMI, U.S. Trade Balance, and Consumer Credit.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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