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A Conversation on Market Trends, Inflation, Energy, and What Comes Next
We recently hosted a Q4 Market Outlook webinar with Noah Brooks and Chris Needs from our Portfolio Solutions team. In this discussion, they walked through the major forces shaping markets as we close out the year — and what it all means for long-term investors.
If you missed it live, you can watch the full replay below:
Key Themes from the Conversation
1. This isn’t a bubble — it’s a bull market on trend.
Despite headlines suggesting otherwise, long-term charts of the Nasdaq show we’re trading near historical trendlines, not at dot-com-era extremes. That doesn’t mean markets can’t pull back, but it’s not bubble territory today.
2. Leadership is broadening beyond mega caps.
Large growth companies remain influential, but sector performance shows a healthier bull market. Industrials, tech, and consumer discretionary are strong, while defensive areas like staples and health care are lagging — a normal sign of risk-on market behavior.
3. International markets are showing strength.
Developed and emerging markets are outpacing the U.S. so far this year. A softer dollar and renewed infrastructure spending are supporting international equities, adding a healthy layer of diversification.
4. The 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback.
After a tough stretch for fixed income, core bonds and investment-grade corporates are positive year-to-date, bringing balance back to diversified portfolios.
5. The Fed faces a balancing act.
With inflation easing but still above target, and labor markets softening at the margins, the Fed is walking a fine line between controlling prices and supporting growth.
6. Geopolitics, tariffs, and energy are in focus.
Tariff activity, rare earth materials, and global trade shifts are contributing to inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, rising data-center energy demand is fueling renewed interest in nuclear and energy infrastructure.
Outlook for the Months Ahead
Markets are priced for strong execution, and leadership remains concentrated — but productivity gains, earnings growth, and global rotation offer constructive signs. We expect a positive year-end with normal volatility, reinforcing the importance of diversification and long-term planning.
Disclaimer
This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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