Major market indices were notably higher in Q2. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended shy of record levels, both indices logged their best quarters since Q2’20. Market strength was also fairly broad; the equal-weight S&P rose 10.9%, its best showing since Q4’23 (though note the RSP outperformed the S&P 500 by 482 bp in Q1).
There was a big tailwind from semis/memory, with SOX up 87.8% for Q2, its best quarter since its creation in 1993; memory firms were among the group’s standouts. Software was also stronger, partially rebounding from its sharp 24%+ decline in Q1. The Mag 7 complex was mostly higher, with GOOGL +24.28%, NVDA +14.7%, and AMZN +14.4% among the big-tech standouts; META (1.6%) saw a small decline. Other outperformers included networking/communications, managed care, airlines, E&Cs, and machinery. Retail-investor favorites continued their YTD strength. Laggards included energy, chemicals, exchanges, media, utilities, staples retailers, and food.
Treasuries were mostly weaker with the curve flattening; 2Y yields rose 35 bp amid increasing expectations for Fed tightening while the 30Y topped out near 5.18% in mid-May (briefly hitting its highest level since 2007) before easing into quarter-end. The dollar was stronger, with the DXY rising. Gold (13.7%) had its worst quarter since 2013 after rising across nine of the prior 10 quarters. Silver (20.0%) retreated after hitting record highs in Q1. Bitcoin futures (13.5%) notched their third consecutive quarterly drop, ending Q2 near levels last seen in late 2024. WTI crude (31.4%) slid sharply after Q1’s ~77% gain as a Mideast ceasefire moved jerkily toward a longer-term diplomatic solution.
AI remained the predominant theme in the market narrative, with no sign of slackening compute demand and robust capex. Big tech earnings reports highlighted these factors; MU +241.7% (and a new member of the $1T market-cap club) near quarter’s end beat and guided ahead, talking up expectations for persistent tight supply conditions and multiple strategic customer agreements. There was also continued attention on the picks-and-shovels aspect of the AI trade, benefiting groups involved in datacenter construction, cooling, and power production. All that said, the AI theme continued to come under scrutiny, with analysts flagging items including monetization/capex ROI, token commoditization, ongoing memory constraints, open-source/Chinese competition, and an uncertain regulatory backdrop. Concentration also made the space vulnerable to periodic unwinds during Q2.
The Mideast conflict spent most of the quarter stumbling toward a diplomatic solution. Military action between the US and Iran continued until an 8-Apr ceasefire, but sporadic fighting occurred in the weeks following and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained near a standstill. While the consensus was that the US and Iran would reach a memorandum of understanding and embark on deeper discussions of key issues, that did not materialize until June. While the conflict remains unresolved at quarter-end, the market had largely discounted the possibility of a return to kinetic action, and the renewed flow of some Hormuz tanker traffic helped push year-end WTI futures back below $70/barrel.
There was a notable shift away from expectations for further Fed easing; at quarter’s end, Fed funds futures were pricing in nearly a full 25 bp hike before the end of 2026. Numerous Fed officials made hawkish remarks across the quarter, voicing worries about above-target inflation (and concerns about higher energy prices) contrasting with signs of a stabilizing labor market. The June FOMC meeting was seen as decidedly hawkish despite the changeover at the chair to Trump’s pick Kevin Warsh, who offered no forward guidance but stressed the committee was unanimous about the importance of price stability.
The Q1 earnings season was very strong, with the S&P 500’s 28.6% y/y earnings growth well above the ~13% expected at the end of the quarter; overall growth was the highest since Q4’21. All S&P 500 sectors reported earnings growth, led by tech at 31.9% y/y. Sentiment for the coming Q2 earnings season remains positive, with strong results again expected against a solid economic backdrop and amid continued AI investment (though with higher energy input costs a factor).
April and May nonfarm payroll reports were both revised lower. The June number was 57k jobs which was half of expectations. Jobless claims remained at low levels despite a continued drumbeat of layoff announcements. Annualized core inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target, though there were limited signs higher energy prices were bleeding through into the core. Consumers continued to spend, as evidenced by ongoingstrength in the retail sales control group. Despite this, consumer sentiment remained depressed (UMich’s measure hit a series low in May), and consumers had increased worries about price levels and job availability.
Energy Complex – Both WTI crude and Brent crude traded near their lowest levels since before the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, as markets grew increasingly confident that oil supplies from the Middle East will continue to normalize. Brent finished the week near $72 per barrel, while WTI traded just below $69 per barrel, with both benchmarks posting a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Metals Complex – Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in over a month, climbing back above $4,100 per ounce, while silver outperformed, rising more than 2% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Both metals benefited from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar following the payrolls release.
Employment Picture – Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average –Released Thursday 7/2/2026 – In the week ending June 27, initial claims were 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,250 to 224,500
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/2/2026 – Hiring slowed significantly in June, employers added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half of expectations. April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate improved for the “wrong” reason. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but this wasn’t because hiring accelerated.
Instead, approximately 720,000 people left the labor force. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years. In other words, fewer people were actively looking for work, which mathematically lowered the unemployment rate.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/30/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.6 million in May. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/3/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.523 million units in June. This made for one of the strongest monthly sales rates of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2026 – The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, although the pace of growth moderated slightly. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3, down from 54.0 in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion after a prolonged period of contraction in 2025. While the headline reading came in just below expectations, it remains consistent with an economy that continues to grow at a healthy pace. Based on historical relationships, the June reading is consistent with roughly 2% annualized real GDP growth.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2026 – Construction spending during May 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,210.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $2,207.1 billion. The May figure is 1.5 percent below the May 2025 estimate of $2,244.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending was down 2.7 percent for the same period in 2025.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 7/1/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% in May 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West, and fell in the Northeast.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/30/2026 – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged higher in June, rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May. While the increase marked the first improvement in two months, the reading came in below economists’ expectations, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite easing gasoline prices and a resilient economy.
Durable Goods – Released 6/25/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion. This followed an 8.5 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $18.5 billion or 14.0 percent to $113.5 billion.
Personal Income – Released 6/25/2026 – Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $159.9 billion in May. Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.0 percent
GDP, 1st Q, 3rd Est. – Released 6/25/26 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were increases in investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 6/16/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 15.4 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,392,000 and is 8.7 percent (±8.2 percent) below the May 2025 rate of 1,289,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 882,000; this is 1.9 percent below the revised April figure of 899,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 284,000. – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,413,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised April rate of 1,423,000 and is 0.2 percent below the May 2025 rate of 1,416,000
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 6/25/2026 – The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation moved higher in May, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, marking the fastest annual pace since April 2023. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, Core PCE rose 0.3% during the month and 3.4% year over year, indicating that underlying inflation also remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target
New Residential Sales – Released 6/24/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 580,000. This is 7.3 percent below the April 2026 rate of 626,000, and is 6.8 percent below the May 2025 rate of 622,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 6/18/26 – The June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey pointed to a meaningful rebound in regional manufacturing activity after a brief slowdown in May. The survey’s General Business Activity Index increased to 10.3 from -0.4, returning to expansion territory and modestly exceeding expectations. The improvement suggests that manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region regained momentum despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy and global events.
Retail Sales – Released 6/17/26 – Retail Sales showed that consumer spending remained resilient in May, with retail and food services sales increasing 0.9% from the previous month, well above economists’ expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased 6.9%, highlighting that consumer demand continues to be a key driver of U.S. economic growth despite higher inflation and elevated energy prices.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/15/26 – Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing output was unchanged in May after increasing 0.7 percent in April. In May, the index for mining rose 1.3 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.4 percent. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.2 percent, a rate that is 3.2% below its long-run average.
Producer Price Index – Released – 6/11/2026 – The PPI report showed that wholesale inflation remained elevated in May, with final demand prices increasing 1.1% during the month and 6.5% from a year ago. Both readings exceeded expectations and marked the strongest annual producer inflation since late 2022, indicating that businesses continue to face meaningful cost pressures.
Consumer Price Index–Released 6/10/2026 – The CPI report showed that inflation accelerated in May, with headline CPI rising 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the past year—the fastest annual pace since April 2023. While the increase matched market expectations, it highlights that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target. Encouragingly, core CPI—which excludes the more volatile food and energy components—rose just 0.2% during the month and 2.9% year over year, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain considerably more contained than the headline figure.
Consumer Credit–Released 6/5/2026 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 6/9/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2026. The deficit decreased from $56.6 billion in March (revised) to $55.9 billion in April, as exports increased more than imports. The goods deficit decreased $2.4 billion in April to $83.7 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.7 billion in April to $27.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/3/2026 – The U.S. services sector regained momentum in May, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.5, its strongest reading since late 2024 and comfortably above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The improvement was driven by stronger business activity and new orders, signaling that demand across much of the service economy remained resilient despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates and trade policy.
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Week 27 Talking Points – 1st Half Volatile But Fruitful
Major market indices were notably higher in Q2. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended shy of record levels, both indices logged their best quarters since Q2’20. Market strength was also fairly broad; the equal-weight S&P rose 10.9%, its best showing since Q4’23 (though note the RSP outperformed the S&P 500 by 482 bp in Q1).
There was a big tailwind from semis/memory, with SOX up 87.8% for Q2, its best quarter since its creation in 1993; memory firms were among the group’s standouts. Software was also stronger, partially rebounding from its sharp 24%+ decline in Q1. The Mag 7 complex was mostly higher, with GOOGL +24.28%, NVDA +14.7%, and AMZN +14.4% among the big-tech standouts; META (1.6%) saw a small decline. Other outperformers included networking/communications, managed care, airlines, E&Cs, and machinery. Retail-investor favorites continued their YTD strength. Laggards included energy, chemicals, exchanges, media, utilities, staples retailers, and food.
Treasuries were mostly weaker with the curve flattening; 2Y yields rose 35 bp amid increasing expectations for Fed tightening while the 30Y topped out near 5.18% in mid-May (briefly hitting its highest level since 2007) before easing into quarter-end. The dollar was stronger, with the DXY rising. Gold (13.7%) had its worst quarter since 2013 after rising across nine of the prior 10 quarters. Silver (20.0%) retreated after hitting record highs in Q1. Bitcoin futures (13.5%) notched their third consecutive quarterly drop, ending Q2 near levels last seen in late 2024. WTI crude (31.4%) slid sharply after Q1’s ~77% gain as a Mideast ceasefire moved jerkily toward a longer-term diplomatic solution.
AI remained the predominant theme in the market narrative, with no sign of slackening compute demand and robust capex. Big tech earnings reports highlighted these factors; MU +241.7% (and a new member of the $1T market-cap club) near quarter’s end beat and guided ahead, talking up expectations for persistent tight supply conditions and multiple strategic customer agreements. There was also continued attention on the picks-and-shovels aspect of the AI trade, benefiting groups involved in datacenter construction, cooling, and power production. All that said, the AI theme continued to come under scrutiny, with analysts flagging items including monetization/capex ROI, token commoditization, ongoing memory constraints, open-source/Chinese competition, and an uncertain regulatory backdrop. Concentration also made the space vulnerable to periodic unwinds during Q2.
The Mideast conflict spent most of the quarter stumbling toward a diplomatic solution. Military action between the US and Iran continued until an 8-Apr ceasefire, but sporadic fighting occurred in the weeks following and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained near a standstill. While the consensus was that the US and Iran would reach a memorandum of understanding and embark on deeper discussions of key issues, that did not materialize until June. While the conflict remains unresolved at quarter-end, the market had largely discounted the possibility of a return to kinetic action, and the renewed flow of some Hormuz tanker traffic helped push year-end WTI futures back below $70/barrel.
There was a notable shift away from expectations for further Fed easing; at quarter’s end, Fed funds futures were pricing in nearly a full 25 bp hike before the end of 2026. Numerous Fed officials made hawkish remarks across the quarter, voicing worries about above-target inflation (and concerns about higher energy prices) contrasting with signs of a stabilizing labor market. The June FOMC meeting was seen as decidedly hawkish despite the changeover at the chair to Trump’s pick Kevin Warsh, who offered no forward guidance but stressed the committee was unanimous about the importance of price stability.
The Q1 earnings season was very strong, with the S&P 500’s 28.6% y/y earnings growth well above the ~13% expected at the end of the quarter; overall growth was the highest since Q4’21. All S&P 500 sectors reported earnings growth, led by tech at 31.9% y/y. Sentiment for the coming Q2 earnings season remains positive, with strong results again expected against a solid economic backdrop and amid continued AI investment (though with higher energy input costs a factor).
April and May nonfarm payroll reports were both revised lower. The June number was 57k jobs which was half of expectations. Jobless claims remained at low levels despite a continued drumbeat of layoff announcements. Annualized core inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target, though there were limited signs higher energy prices were bleeding through into the core. Consumers continued to spend, as evidenced by ongoingstrength in the retail sales control group. Despite this, consumer sentiment remained depressed (UMich’s measure hit a series low in May), and consumers had increased worries about price levels and job availability.
Fixed Income –
June FOMC Statement April Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Energy Complex – Both WTI crude and Brent crude traded near their lowest levels since before the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, as markets grew increasingly confident that oil supplies from the Middle East will continue to normalize. Brent finished the week near $72 per barrel, while WTI traded just below $69 per barrel, with both benchmarks posting a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Metals Complex – Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in over a month, climbing back above $4,100 per ounce, while silver outperformed, rising more than 2% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Both metals benefited from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar following the payrolls release.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 7/2/2026 – In the week ending June 27, initial claims were 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,250 to 224,500
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/2/2026 – Hiring slowed significantly in June, employers added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half of expectations. April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate improved for the “wrong” reason. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but this wasn’t because hiring accelerated.
Instead, approximately 720,000 people left the labor force. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years. In other words, fewer people were actively looking for work, which mathematically lowered the unemployment rate.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/30/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.6 million in May. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 7/3/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.523 million units in June. This made for one of the strongest monthly sales rates of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/1/2026 – The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, although the pace of growth moderated slightly. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3, down from 54.0 in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion after a prolonged period of contraction in 2025. While the headline reading came in just below expectations, it remains consistent with an economy that continues to grow at a healthy pace. Based on historical relationships, the June reading is consistent with roughly 2% annualized real GDP growth.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2026 – Construction spending during May 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,210.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $2,207.1 billion. The May figure is 1.5 percent below the May 2025 estimate of $2,244.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending was down 2.7 percent for the same period in 2025.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors SummaryReleased 7/1/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 3.2% in May 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and were unchanged in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West, and fell in the Northeast.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/30/2026 – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged higher in June, rising to 91.2 from a revised 90.6 in May. While the increase marked the first improvement in two months, the reading came in below economists’ expectations, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite easing gasoline prices and a resilient economy.
Durable Goods – Released 6/25/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion. This followed an 8.5 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $18.5 billion or 14.0 percent to $113.5 billion.
Personal Income – Released 6/25/2026 – Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $159.9 billion in May. Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.0 percent
GDP, 1st Q, 3rd Est. – Released 6/25/26 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were increases in investment, exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 6/16/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. This is 15.4 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,392,000 and is 8.7 percent (±8.2 percent) below the May 2025 rate of 1,289,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 882,000; this is 1.9 percent below the revised April figure of 899,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 284,000. – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,413,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised April rate of 1,423,000 and is 0.2 percent below the May 2025 rate of 1,416,000
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 6/25/2026 – The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation moved higher in May, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, marking the fastest annual pace since April 2023. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, Core PCE rose 0.3% during the month and 3.4% year over year, indicating that underlying inflation also remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target
New Residential Sales – Released 6/24/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 580,000. This is 7.3 percent below the April 2026 rate of 626,000, and is 6.8 percent below the May 2025 rate of 622,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 6/18/26 – The June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey pointed to a meaningful rebound in regional manufacturing activity after a brief slowdown in May. The survey’s General Business Activity Index increased to 10.3 from -0.4, returning to expansion territory and modestly exceeding expectations. The improvement suggests that manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region regained momentum despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy and global events.
Retail Sales – Released 6/17/26 – Retail Sales showed that consumer spending remained resilient in May, with retail and food services sales increasing 0.9% from the previous month, well above economists’ expectations of a 0.5% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased 6.9%, highlighting that consumer demand continues to be a key driver of U.S. economic growth despite higher inflation and elevated energy prices.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/15/26 – Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing output was unchanged in May after increasing 0.7 percent in April. In May, the index for mining rose 1.3 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.4 percent. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.2 percent, a rate that is 3.2% below its long-run average.
Producer Price Index – Released – 6/11/2026 – The PPI report showed that wholesale inflation remained elevated in May, with final demand prices increasing 1.1% during the month and 6.5% from a year ago. Both readings exceeded expectations and marked the strongest annual producer inflation since late 2022, indicating that businesses continue to face meaningful cost pressures.
Consumer Price Index – Released 6/10/2026 – The CPI report showed that inflation accelerated in May, with headline CPI rising 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the past year—the fastest annual pace since April 2023. While the increase matched market expectations, it highlights that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target. Encouragingly, core CPI—which excludes the more volatile food and energy components—rose just 0.2% during the month and 2.9% year over year, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain considerably more contained than the headline figure.
Consumer Credit – Released 6/5/2026 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/9/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2026. The deficit decreased from $56.6 billion in March (revised) to $55.9 billion in April, as exports increased more than imports. The goods deficit decreased $2.4 billion in April to $83.7 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.7 billion in April to $27.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2026 – The U.S. services sector regained momentum in May, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.5, its strongest reading since late 2024 and comfortably above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The improvement was driven by stronger business activity and new orders, signaling that demand across much of the service economy remained resilient despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates and trade policy.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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