Good Life Advisors Market Commentary | Week 17
Peace Talks Stalled
U.S.-Iran headlines remained noisy this week, but markets largely continued to operate under the assumption of a continued ceasefire and uneven progress toward some type of agreement. While geopolitical developments created some knee-jerk reactions, investors appeared eager to refocus on earnings, economic data, and the ongoing AI demand and infrastructure buildout theme.
The robust first-quarter earnings season was a major story, with blended earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents topping 15%. Companies continued to beat earnings estimates at an above-average pace, although the market has rewarded those beats less than in recent periods.
Economic updates were relatively light, but March retail sales were stronger than expected, pending-home sales improved, and flash PMI readings beat expectations for both services and manufacturing. Initial jobless claims remained contained, although continuing claims moved slightly higher. Consumer sentiment improved from its preliminary April reading but remained historically weak.
Market Overview
Overall, markets continued to lean into a generally bullish narrative supported by strong earnings, resilient consumer activity, and AI-related investment. At the same time, investors remain focused on risks tied to geopolitical tensions, elevated capital spending, and the potential impact of higher input costs.
Domestic Equity Benchmarks
| Index |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
| DJ Industrial Average TR USD |
-0.41% |
2.93% |
24.88% |
15.39% |
9.74% |
| NASDAQ Composite TR USD |
1.50% |
6.86% |
44.68% |
27.31% |
12.12% |
| S&P 500 TR USD |
0.56% |
5.05% |
32.26% |
21.76% |
13.01% |
| Russell 2000 TR USD |
0.37% |
12.67% |
44.24% |
17.57% |
5.60% |
Source: Morningstar Direct. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
| Sector |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
| Energy |
3.49% |
28.12% |
42.44% |
| Technology |
3.85% |
11.48% |
56.85% |
| Consumer Staples |
0.95% |
7.77% |
5.53% |
| Health Care |
-3.07% |
-6.44% |
6.83% |
| Financials |
-1.88% |
-5.56% |
8.27% |
Fixed Income
Yields were firmer across the curve, pushing many fixed income benchmarks lower for the week. TIPS were an outlier as inflation expectations rose.
| Benchmark |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
| BBgBarc US Agg Bond TR USD |
-0.26% |
0.57% |
5.46% |
| BBgBarc US Corp TR USD |
-0.23% |
0.75% |
7.52% |
| BofAML US HY Master II TR USD |
-0.19% |
1.26% |
9.04% |
| BBgBarc US TIPs TR USD |
0.33% |
1.75% |
4.37% |
Foreign Exchange
The U.S. dollar held firm this week. Early safe-haven demand related to geopolitical tensions proved more durable than in prior periods, while the higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop and relative U.S. economic resilience continued to support the dollar.
Energy Complex
Oil moved sharply higher this week. Brent crude rose more than 16%, while WTI crude increased more than 11%. The Baker Hughes rig count increased by one, bringing the total number of active U.S. rigs to 544, down 43 from a year ago.
| Commodity |
Spot Price |
Last Week |
Weekly Change |
| Brent Crude Oil |
$105.33/bbl |
$90.38 |
16.54% |
| WTI Crude Oil |
$95.76/bbl |
$85.91 |
11.47% |
| Natural Gas |
$2.52/million BTUs |
$2.67 |
-5.65% |
| Unleaded Gas |
$3.13/gallon |
$3.03 |
3.26% |
Employment Picture
For the week ending April 18, initial unemployment claims were 214,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average was 210,750.
March nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%. Job gains occurred in health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing.
- U-3 unemployment rate: 4.3%
- U-6 underemployment rate: 8.0%
- Labor force participation rate: 61.9%
- Average work week: 34.2 hours
- Average hourly earnings: $37.38
Economic Data
March retail sales increased 1.7% from the previous month and were up 4.0% from March 2025. Industrial production declined 0.5% in March but increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter. The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in March, while the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% for the month and 3.3% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.
Existing-home sales declined 3.6% in March, while consumer confidence edged higher to 91.8. Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 52.7% in March.
Graphs
Employment Picture
Economic Data Chart
Market Chart
“Long-term investors must be careful not to learn too much from recent experience.”
Ben Graham
“It’s human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation.”
William Bernstein
“There are two times when investors forget their principles: at the top of the market and at the bottom.”
Philip A. Lowe
Please excuse any typos. See disclaimers and data sources below.
Noah Brooks, CMT, CIPM
Chief Market Strategist
Director of Investments
Good Life Companies
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC are separate entities from LPL Financial.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency, or CFD contract. Economic and performance information referenced is historical, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Good Life Advisors Market Commentary | Week 17
Peace Talks Stalled
U.S.-Iran headlines remained noisy this week, but markets largely continued to operate under the assumption of a continued ceasefire and uneven progress toward some type of agreement. While geopolitical developments created some knee-jerk reactions, investors appeared eager to refocus on earnings, economic data, and the ongoing AI demand and infrastructure buildout theme.
The robust first-quarter earnings season was a major story, with blended earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents topping 15%. Companies continued to beat earnings estimates at an above-average pace, although the market has rewarded those beats less than in recent periods.
Economic updates were relatively light, but March retail sales were stronger than expected, pending-home sales improved, and flash PMI readings beat expectations for both services and manufacturing. Initial jobless claims remained contained, although continuing claims moved slightly higher. Consumer sentiment improved from its preliminary April reading but remained historically weak.
Market Overview
Overall, markets continued to lean into a generally bullish narrative supported by strong earnings, resilient consumer activity, and AI-related investment. At the same time, investors remain focused on risks tied to geopolitical tensions, elevated capital spending, and the potential impact of higher input costs.
Domestic Equity Benchmarks
Source: Morningstar Direct. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Fixed Income
Yields were firmer across the curve, pushing many fixed income benchmarks lower for the week. TIPS were an outlier as inflation expectations rose.
Foreign Exchange
The U.S. dollar held firm this week. Early safe-haven demand related to geopolitical tensions proved more durable than in prior periods, while the higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop and relative U.S. economic resilience continued to support the dollar.
Energy Complex
Oil moved sharply higher this week. Brent crude rose more than 16%, while WTI crude increased more than 11%. The Baker Hughes rig count increased by one, bringing the total number of active U.S. rigs to 544, down 43 from a year ago.
Employment Picture
For the week ending April 18, initial unemployment claims were 214,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average was 210,750.
March nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%. Job gains occurred in health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing.
Economic Data
March retail sales increased 1.7% from the previous month and were up 4.0% from March 2025. Industrial production declined 0.5% in March but increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter. The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in March, while the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% for the month and 3.3% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.
Existing-home sales declined 3.6% in March, while consumer confidence edged higher to 91.8. Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 52.7% in March.
Graphs
Employment Picture
Economic Data Chart
Market Chart
Please excuse any typos. See disclaimers and data sources below.
Noah Brooks, CMT, CIPM
Chief Market Strategist
Director of Investments
Good Life Companies
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC are separate entities from LPL Financial.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency, or CFD contract. Economic and performance information referenced is historical, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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