There was rotation under the surface as tech cooled and defensives were steadier. Value outperformed growth by 2.9% as the Nasdaq logged its worst week since May. S&P 600 small caps were actually positive for the week while the less profitable Russel 2000 index fell by 1.86% AI scrutiny remained a key focus this week, with attention on all the major narrative elements including cash burn, leverage, and circularity.
There was more discussion on the consumer bifurcation/K-shaped recovery theme. Bloomberg observed that the richest 10% of households are responsible for nearly half of total US spending, also observing multiple recent earnings reports (including from McDonalds) that cited increasing caution among lower-income consumers. National Association of Realtors also reported that the median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40, an all-time high. Recent anxieties about ramping layoffs are also playing into this theme, with the NY Fed’s latest consumer survey seeing depressed expectations of finding a new job if laid off. At the same time, some analyst notes argued the upper-income consumer continues to spend.
Market reaction was mixed to some (expected) skepticism by the Supreme Court in oral arguments on Trump’s use of emergency powers for some tariffs. A potential refund of collected tariffs could provide a short-term boost, but lower overall tariff revenue raises the possibility of higher federal deficits and debt issuance. And a ruling against the president could create notable trade uncertainty as the administrationsearches for new authorities to justify tariff policy.
Q3 earnings metrics continued to outperform. With 91% of S&P constituents now having reported, blended y/y earnings growth stands just above 13% vs the 7.9% expected at the end of the quarter. Some 82% of firms have issued a positive earnings surprise, topping one-, five-, and ten-year averages, though the magnitude of those beats has lagged longer-term averages. At the same time, the bar has remained high: the market has been rewarding beats less than average and punishing misses more severely.
Despite the lack of government data, there were several notable economic reports this week. October ISM manufacturing came in below consensus though the new-orders and employment components improved; respondent commentary remained guarded. By comparison, ISM services beat with new orders hitting a one-year high. On the employment front, October ADP private payrolls beat forecasts, printing positive after two monthly declines; hiring was concentrated in large firms while payrolls at small- and mid-sized businesses contracted. There was a lot of attention this week on the Challenger job-cuts report, which observed more than 150K layoffs in October, the most in more than two decades. Finally, preliminary November UMich consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined m/m to nearly the worst level on record, seeing deterioration among almost all groups except those with large equity investments.
Some thoughts about a possible negotiated end to the government shutdown waned after Democrats saw multiple election successes Tuesday night, emboldening party leaders to continue encouraging resistance. But impacts continue to pile up (including reduced SNAP benefits and stresses to air traffic controllers) and Trump grew more vocal in encouraging the GOP to reopen the government via eliminating the filibuster. Despite this, there seemed to be a bit of optimism Friday afternoon about a Democratic proposal to reopen the government in exchange for a one-year extension of expiring ACA tax credits. As of Sunday afternoon Axios is reporting that at least 10 Senate Democrats indicated they are ready to advance a package of bills that could end the government shutdown.
Fixed Income: Bonds are acting like growth is cooling but not collapsing; we’re in ‘cuts are possible, timing uncertain’ mode. Fed path: Futures still imply ~65–70% odds of a Dec cut after the Oct 29 cut; markets remain data-dependent, but the shutdown-driven data gap complicates the read-through.
Foreign Exchange Market – The US Dollar fell slightly as the euro firmed modestly and yen remained the preferred defensive hedge.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 2 this week. There are now 548 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year. Oil ended lower on the week despite a small Friday bounce; Demand worries and ample supply overshadowed geopolitics. Natural Gas has been strong M/M with early-winter risk and storage in a healthy spot.
Metals Complex – Gold eked out a minor gain this week as the USD eased and rate rose slightly.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Credit–Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 45, 2025
There was rotation under the surface as tech cooled and defensives were steadier. Value outperformed growth by 2.9% as the Nasdaq logged its worst week since May. S&P 600 small caps were actually positive for the week while the less profitable Russel 2000 index fell by 1.86% AI scrutiny remained a key focus this week, with attention on all the major narrative elements including cash burn, leverage, and circularity.
There was more discussion on the consumer bifurcation/K-shaped recovery theme. Bloomberg observed that the richest 10% of households are responsible for nearly half of total US spending, also observing multiple recent earnings reports (including from McDonalds) that cited increasing caution among lower-income consumers. National Association of Realtors also reported that the median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40, an all-time high. Recent anxieties about ramping layoffs are also playing into this theme, with the NY Fed’s latest consumer survey seeing depressed expectations of finding a new job if laid off. At the same time, some analyst notes argued the upper-income consumer continues to spend.
Market reaction was mixed to some (expected) skepticism by the Supreme Court in oral arguments on Trump’s use of emergency powers for some tariffs. A potential refund of collected tariffs could provide a short-term boost, but lower overall tariff revenue raises the possibility of higher federal deficits and debt issuance. And a ruling against the president could create notable trade uncertainty as the administrationsearches for new authorities to justify tariff policy.
Q3 earnings metrics continued to outperform. With 91% of S&P constituents now having reported, blended y/y earnings growth stands just above 13% vs the 7.9% expected at the end of the quarter. Some 82% of firms have issued a positive earnings surprise, topping one-, five-, and ten-year averages, though the magnitude of those beats has lagged longer-term averages. At the same time, the bar has remained high: the market has been rewarding beats less than average and punishing misses more severely.
Despite the lack of government data, there were several notable economic reports this week. October ISM manufacturing came in below consensus though the new-orders and employment components improved; respondent commentary remained guarded. By comparison, ISM services beat with new orders hitting a one-year high. On the employment front, October ADP private payrolls beat forecasts, printing positive after two monthly declines; hiring was concentrated in large firms while payrolls at small- and mid-sized businesses contracted. There was a lot of attention this week on the Challenger job-cuts report, which observed more than 150K layoffs in October, the most in more than two decades. Finally, preliminary November UMich consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined m/m to nearly the worst level on record, seeing deterioration among almost all groups except those with large equity investments.
Some thoughts about a possible negotiated end to the government shutdown waned after Democrats saw multiple election successes Tuesday night, emboldening party leaders to continue encouraging resistance. But impacts continue to pile up (including reduced SNAP benefits and stresses to air traffic controllers) and Trump grew more vocal in encouraging the GOP to reopen the government via eliminating the filibuster. Despite this, there seemed to be a bit of optimism Friday afternoon about a Democratic proposal to reopen the government in exchange for a one-year extension of expiring ACA tax credits. As of Sunday afternoon Axios is reporting that at least 10 Senate Democrats indicated they are ready to advance a package of bills that could end the government shutdown.
Fixed Income: Bonds are acting like growth is cooling but not collapsing; we’re in ‘cuts are possible, timing uncertain’ mode. Fed path: Futures still imply ~65–70% odds of a Dec cut after the Oct 29 cut; markets remain data-dependent, but the shutdown-driven data gap complicates the read-through.
September FOMC Statement September Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The US Dollar fell slightly as the euro firmed modestly and yen remained the preferred defensive hedge.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 2 this week. There are now 548 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year. Oil ended lower on the week despite a small Friday bounce; Demand worries and ample supply overshadowed geopolitics. Natural Gas has been strong M/M with early-winter risk and storage in a healthy spot.
Metals Complex – Gold eked out a minor gain this week as the USD eased and rate rose slightly.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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