Everyone knows a Buffett quote or two. They’ve become part of the cultural fabric of investing — “be fearful when others are greedy,” “price is what you pay, value is what you get,” But what makes Buffett remarkable isn’t just the quotes; it’s the decades of lived experience and perspective behind them. Warren Buffet put out his “Going Quiet” letter this month. He is stepping back and passing full leadership of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel. Beyond the succession update, the letter is one of Buffett’s most personal reflections on aging, legacy, philanthropy, and long-term investing. It’s packed with lessons that translate directly into advisor-client conversations: staying disciplined through market cycles, planning for multigenerational wealth, choosing the right heroes, and approaching life with humility and purpose. I strongly recommend taking 10 minutes to read it — both as professionals and as humans.
The S&P 500 fell almost 2% this week and is now down 3.5% in November. The Nasdaq fell 2.7% and is now down 6% for the month. AI scrutiny/skepticism was a key story, with a focus on capital constraints and capex sustainability, credit spread widening, circularity, ROI uncertainty, and upheaval from Google’s Gemini 3 release Other pieces of the bearish narrative included the latest Bitcoin rout, lofty valuations, and an uptick in the VIX. Technicals were also in focus as the S&P touched the 100 MVA on Friday.
Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that wasn’t enough to offset broader AI fears. CEO Huang highlighted accelerating compute demand, while analysts also highlighted potential upside to previous Data Center revenue forecasts through 2026, imminent Rubin launch in 2026, and commentary that it sees longer lifespans for its past generation GPUs than expected.
This week saw some whiplash in Fed rate cut pricing. December rate cut odds fell after the BLS confirmed it would not release an October payrolls report and that the November release would be released 16-Dec, after the December FOMC meeting. The BLS also announced November CPI would be delayed to 18-Dec. October FOMC meeting minutes takeaways were also hawkish, with many officials saying they did not think the Fed should cut in December, arguing cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched.
However, December cut odds jumped after long-awaited labor market data added to lingering growth fears. September headline payrolls were better than expected, but downward revisions took August to a 4K contraction, wage growth was weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest level since Oct 21’. Continuing jobless claims were also the highest since Nov 21’. December odds rose further after Friday comments from New York’s Williams, who noted room for near-term policy adjustments.
Fixed Income – A slight easing in yields supported total returns. Treasury yields drifted lower across parts of the curve as investors rotated into high-quality bonds amid softer economic signals and renewed interest in risk-off positioning. Even modest yield declines provided a tailwind for intermediated-duration core bonds. Market remains in “data watching mode.” With mixed economic prints and the Fed largely in a holding pattern, yields stabilized, supporting performance across investment grade corporates, agency MBS, and the broader core bond universe.
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar remained relatively strong, though there were signs of pressure from market participants hoping for eventual Fed rate cuts amid economic softness.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 5 this week. There are now 554 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 29 from last year. Oil markets continued to price in softer global demand expectations as economic data reflected slower industrial activity and uncertainty around global growth. Heating oil and natty rose slightly on colder than expected weather.
Metals Complex – A firmer USD created headwinds across all metals. Softer global macro sentiment hit industrial metals also as investors reassessed global growth conditions.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 11/20/2025 – In the week ending November 15, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 8.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/19/2025 – August – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit–Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer:This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 47, 2025
Everyone knows a Buffett quote or two. They’ve become part of the cultural fabric of investing — “be fearful when others are greedy,” “price is what you pay, value is what you get,” But what makes Buffett remarkable isn’t just the quotes; it’s the decades of lived experience and perspective behind them. Warren Buffet put out his “Going Quiet” letter this month. He is stepping back and passing full leadership of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel. Beyond the succession update, the letter is one of Buffett’s most personal reflections on aging, legacy, philanthropy, and long-term investing. It’s packed with lessons that translate directly into advisor-client conversations: staying disciplined through market cycles, planning for multigenerational wealth, choosing the right heroes, and approaching life with humility and purpose. I strongly recommend taking 10 minutes to read it — both as professionals and as humans.
The S&P 500 fell almost 2% this week and is now down 3.5% in November. The Nasdaq fell 2.7% and is now down 6% for the month. AI scrutiny/skepticism was a key story, with a focus on capital constraints and capex sustainability, credit spread widening, circularity, ROI uncertainty, and upheaval from Google’s Gemini 3 release Other pieces of the bearish narrative included the latest Bitcoin rout, lofty valuations, and an uptick in the VIX. Technicals were also in focus as the S&P touched the 100 MVA on Friday.
Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that wasn’t enough to offset broader AI fears. CEO Huang highlighted accelerating compute demand, while analysts also highlighted potential upside to previous Data Center revenue forecasts through 2026, imminent Rubin launch in 2026, and commentary that it sees longer lifespans for its past generation GPUs than expected.
This week saw some whiplash in Fed rate cut pricing. December rate cut odds fell after the BLS confirmed it would not release an October payrolls report and that the November release would be released 16-Dec, after the December FOMC meeting. The BLS also announced November CPI would be delayed to 18-Dec. October FOMC meeting minutes takeaways were also hawkish, with many officials saying they did not think the Fed should cut in December, arguing cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched.
However, December cut odds jumped after long-awaited labor market data added to lingering growth fears. September headline payrolls were better than expected, but downward revisions took August to a 4K contraction, wage growth was weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest level since Oct 21’. Continuing jobless claims were also the highest since Nov 21’. December odds rose further after Friday comments from New York’s Williams, who noted room for near-term policy adjustments.
Fixed Income – A slight easing in yields supported total returns. Treasury yields drifted lower across parts of the curve as investors rotated into high-quality bonds amid softer economic signals and renewed interest in risk-off positioning. Even modest yield declines provided a tailwind for intermediated-duration core bonds. Market remains in “data watching mode.” With mixed economic prints and the Fed largely in a holding pattern, yields stabilized, supporting performance across investment grade corporates, agency MBS, and the broader core bond universe.
October FOMC Statement October Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar remained relatively strong, though there were signs of pressure from market participants hoping for eventual Fed rate cuts amid economic softness.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 5 this week. There are now 554 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 29 from last year. Oil markets continued to price in softer global demand expectations as economic data reflected slower industrial activity and uncertainty around global growth. Heating oil and natty rose slightly on colder than expected weather.
Metals Complex – A firmer USD created headwinds across all metals. Softer global macro sentiment hit industrial metals also as investors reassessed global growth conditions.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
September Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 11/20/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 11/20/2025 – In the week ending November 15, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 8.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 11/20/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 1.2% in October, Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, showed no change in the Northeast, and fell in the West. Year-over-year sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and decreased in the West.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/19/2025 – August – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit – Released 11/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 11/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025. This is 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 11/4/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 10/28/2025 – The Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025.
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending.
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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