The major averages were mostly higher this month, with the S&P 500 up for a fourth-straight month. Nasdaq underperformed but still posted a modest monthly gain. Small caps underperformed, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) outpaced the cap-weighted index and hit a fresh record high. Treasuries were notably firmer, with the 2Y yield down over 30 bp to the lowest levels since early 2023. The dollar index was down 2.3%, off for a second-straight month and touching the lowest level since Jul-23. Gold was 2.2%, hitting a fresh record high this month. Bitcoin futures were down 10%. WTI crude was down 5.6%.
Mid and small caps have come back significantly since the early August tumble but haven’t been able to clear new highs. Interestingly, neither have mega-caps. The S&P 100 and 500 were both unable to claim prior highs but large value and equal weight large cap made new highs last Friday. For the month, equal weight was up 2.49% in August and set new all-times highs on the last day of the month. The cap weighted S&P 500 was also up 2.28% but mega cap growth wasn’t able to claim new highs again. On the other hand, the Russell 1000 value was up 2.66% for the month and able to make new all-time highs- The R1kG was only up 2.02%
This month started with a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 shedding more than 6% in the first three trading days of August and Magnificent Seven off nearly 10% in the first week of the month. The selloff was driven by growth fears after the July payrolls miss raised concerns that the Fed is behind the curve. July nonfarm payrolls of 114K came in well below consensus for 175K and down from June’s downwardly revised 179K (was 206K). The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3% vs consensus 4.1%, triggering the recession-predicting Sahm Rule. Following the report, Fed rate cut expectations spiked, with the market pricing in a ~70% chance of a 50 bp cut in September at one point given hard landing concerns. The market impact was also amplified by an unwinding of the yen carry trade given the divergence in Fed and BoJ policy expectations (FT), while the VIX spiked above 65 in early August in the biggest intraday jump on record.
However, the market rebounded and erased the early-month declines as soft landing odds rose over the course of the month and the Fed essentially confirmed it would cut in September as recession risks remain low. July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21. Following the data, Fed Chair Powell confirmed the Fed’s shift in focus to the labor market in his speech in Jackson Hole. Powell said upside risks to inflation have diminished, and downside risks to inflation have cooled, and that the Fed will do everything it can to support a strong labor market.
Rate cut optimism was a key piece of this month’s bullish sentiment, with Evercore ISI strategists noting that Fed rate cuts in a non-recession scenario historically push the S&P 500 higher by 18% in the year after a rate cut (and just 2% if cuts come amid recession). As growth fears eased, Fed rate cut expectations also came down, with the market now pricing in just a ~30% chance of a 50 bp cut in September, and around 100 bp of cuts by year-end. Other pieces of the bullish narrative this month included buybacks and seasonality, and more support from the AI secular growth theme despite the Nvidia selloff after earnings as the company beat and raised. This Friday’s August payrolls report is the key datapoint ahead of the September FOMC decision.
Treasuries rallied sharply this month for a fourth-straight monthly advance, the longest since 2020. The yield curve also nearly fully uninverted this month as well, with the 2Y/10Y spread falling as low as -2 near the end of the month, though some flagged that as a cautionary signal suggesting rising recession odds.
Fixed Income:
The average 30 year mortgage is still trending downward since hitting 7.75% last year. Currently sitting at 6.35%
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 583 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 48 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/29/2024 – In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 231,500 a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report –BLS Summary –Released 8/2/2024 – The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents/0.2% to $35.07.
U3 unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.4% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
Average work week declined 0.1 to 34.2 hours.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 8/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in August but increased to 46.1 points up from 45.3 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in August. The marginal upward movement was driven by new orders, followed by production and supplier deliveries.
Personal Income – Released 8/30/2024 – Personal income increased $75.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in July. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Second Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 8/29/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The update primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence – Released 8/27/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 101.9 to 103.3 in August. The expectations index improved from 81.1 to 82.5. Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $26.1 billion or 9.9 percent to $289.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $26.4 billion or 34.8 percent to $102.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $3.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $291.1 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent June increase. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $3.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $99.2 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
New Residential Sales –Released 8/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 10.6 percent above the revised June rate of 668,000 and is 5.6 percent above the July 2023 estimate of 700,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2024 was $429,800. The average sales price was $514,800.
Existing Home Sales – Released 8/22/2024 – Existing home sales in July increased 1.3% from June but fell 2.5% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.95 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $422,600.
Housing Starts – Released 8/16/2024 – July housing starts came in at 1,238,000, 6.8% below the June estimate but is 16.0% below the July 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.0% below the June rate at $1,454,000 and is 7.0% below the July 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.6% in July. Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3%. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 3.7%. Mining was flat. Total industrial production in July was 0.2% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in July, a rate that is 1.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales –Released 8/15/2024 – Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/14/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1% in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index –Released 8/13/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter and increased at 2.1 percent in June. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance –Released 8/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May. June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $97.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the second time in four months. The Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 2.6 percentage higher than June’s reading of 48.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/2/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.817 million units in July.
U.S. Construction Spending –Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
This week we get data on Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, JOLTS, and the July Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 35, 2024
The major averages were mostly higher this month, with the S&P 500 up for a fourth-straight month. Nasdaq underperformed but still posted a modest monthly gain. Small caps underperformed, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) outpaced the cap-weighted index and hit a fresh record high. Treasuries were notably firmer, with the 2Y yield down over 30 bp to the lowest levels since early 2023. The dollar index was down 2.3%, off for a second-straight month and touching the lowest level since Jul-23. Gold was 2.2%, hitting a fresh record high this month. Bitcoin futures were down 10%. WTI crude was down 5.6%.
Mid and small caps have come back significantly since the early August tumble but haven’t been able to clear new highs. Interestingly, neither have mega-caps. The S&P 100 and 500 were both unable to claim prior highs but large value and equal weight large cap made new highs last Friday. For the month, equal weight was up 2.49% in August and set new all-times highs on the last day of the month. The cap weighted S&P 500 was also up 2.28% but mega cap growth wasn’t able to claim new highs again. On the other hand, the Russell 1000 value was up 2.66% for the month and able to make new all-time highs- The R1kG was only up 2.02%
This month started with a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 shedding more than 6% in the first three trading days of August and Magnificent Seven off nearly 10% in the first week of the month. The selloff was driven by growth fears after the July payrolls miss raised concerns that the Fed is behind the curve. July nonfarm payrolls of 114K came in well below consensus for 175K and down from June’s downwardly revised 179K (was 206K). The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3% vs consensus 4.1%, triggering the recession-predicting Sahm Rule. Following the report, Fed rate cut expectations spiked, with the market pricing in a ~70% chance of a 50 bp cut in September at one point given hard landing concerns. The market impact was also amplified by an unwinding of the yen carry trade given the divergence in Fed and BoJ policy expectations (FT), while the VIX spiked above 65 in early August in the biggest intraday jump on record.
However, the market rebounded and erased the early-month declines as soft landing odds rose over the course of the month and the Fed essentially confirmed it would cut in September as recession risks remain low. July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21. Following the data, Fed Chair Powell confirmed the Fed’s shift in focus to the labor market in his speech in Jackson Hole. Powell said upside risks to inflation have diminished, and downside risks to inflation have cooled, and that the Fed will do everything it can to support a strong labor market.
Rate cut optimism was a key piece of this month’s bullish sentiment, with Evercore ISI strategists noting that Fed rate cuts in a non-recession scenario historically push the S&P 500 higher by 18% in the year after a rate cut (and just 2% if cuts come amid recession). As growth fears eased, Fed rate cut expectations also came down, with the market now pricing in just a ~30% chance of a 50 bp cut in September, and around 100 bp of cuts by year-end. Other pieces of the bullish narrative this month included buybacks and seasonality, and more support from the AI secular growth theme despite the Nvidia selloff after earnings as the company beat and raised. This Friday’s August payrolls report is the key datapoint ahead of the September FOMC decision.
Treasuries rallied sharply this month for a fourth-straight monthly advance, the longest since 2020. The yield curve also nearly fully uninverted this month as well, with the 2Y/10Y spread falling as low as -2 near the end of the month, though some flagged that as a cautionary signal suggesting rising recession odds.
Fixed Income:
The average 30 year mortgage is still trending downward since hitting 7.75% last year. Currently sitting at 6.35%
Yield Curve:
July FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex-
The Baker Hughes rig count was down 2 this week. There are 583 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 48 from last year.
Metals Complex-
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/29/2024 – In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 231,500 a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 8/2/2024 – The US Economyadded 114k nonfarm jobs in July and the Unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings increased 8 cents to $35.07. Hiring highlights include +55k Healthcare, +25k Construction, and +14k Transportation and Warehousing.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2024 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in June 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefit costs increased 1.0% from March 2024. The 12-month period ending in June 2024 saw compensation costs increase by 4.1. The 12-month period ending June 2023 increased 4.5%. Wages and salaries increased 4.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2024 and increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period ending June 2024 and increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/30/2024 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data – Blue links take you to data source
Chicago PMI – Released 8/30/2024 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in August but increased to 46.1 points up from 45.3 points in June. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in August. The marginal upward movement was driven by new orders, followed by production and supplier deliveries.
Personal Income – Released 8/30/2024 – Personal income increased $75.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in July. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $54.8 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.8 billion (0.5 percent).
Second Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 GDP – Released 8/29/2024 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The update primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Consumer Confidence – Released 8/27/2024 – Consumer Confidence increased from 101.9 to 103.3 in August. The expectations index improved from 81.1 to 82.5. Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2024 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $26.1 billion or 9.9 percent to $289.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $26.4 billion or 34.8 percent to $102.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $3.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $291.1 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent June increase. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $3.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $99.2 billion.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
New Residential Sales – Released 8/23/2024 – Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 10.6 percent above the revised June rate of 668,000 and is 5.6 percent above the July 2023 estimate of 700,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2024 was $429,800. The average sales price was $514,800.
Existing Home Sales – Released 8/22/2024 – Existing home sales in July increased 1.3% from June but fell 2.5% year over year. Existing home sales increased to 3.95 million in June seasonally adjusted. The median price of existing homes for sale increased to a record high of $422,600.
Housing Starts – Released 8/16/2024 – July housing starts came in at 1,238,000, 6.8% below the June estimate but is 16.0% below the July 2023 rate. Building permits were 4.0% below the June rate at $1,454,000 and is 7.0% below the July 2023 rate.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/2024 – Industrial production decreased 0.6% in July. Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3%. Manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Utilities output decreased 3.7%. Mining was flat. Total industrial production in July was 0.2% lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization decreased to 77.8% in July, a rate that is 1.9% below its long-run average.
Retail Sales – Released 8/15/2024 – Headline retail sales exceeded expectations, up 1.0% in July and are up 2.7% above July 2023.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/14/2024 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1% in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Producer Price Index – Released 8/13/2024 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2024 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter and increased at 2.1 percent in June. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 8/6/2024 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May. June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports. The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an decrease in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $97.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.2 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/5/2024 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July for the second time in four months. The Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 2.6 percentage higher than June’s reading of 48.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales – Released 8/2/2024 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.817 million units in July.
U.S. Construction Spending – Released 8/1/2024 – Construction spending during June 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,148.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,154.8 billion. The June figure is 6.2 percent above the June 2023 estimate of $2,023.0 billion.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2024 – The July Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent, down 1.7 percent from 48.5 percent in June. The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.3 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 45.9 percent is a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to June’s figure of 48.5 percent.
This week we get data on Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, Services PMI, the U.S. Trade Balance, JOLTS, and the July Jobs Report.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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