It only took 90 trading days for the market to make a full round trip from mid-February. From it’s intra day high on February 19th the S&P500 fell 21.1% in 34 days, the closing was on April 8th (-18.9%). It then took just 55 days to climb back to new all-time highs.
As markets head higher, valuations are still elevated.
Easing geopolitical tensions were a key tailwind this week. The US military strikes last weekend against Iranian nuclear development sites were met with an underwhelming response by Iran when it targeted US assets in the region. Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, putting Iran tensions on the backburner. Oil weakness was a further tailwind as WTI gave back all of gains made since Israel’s strikes two weeks ago and ended the week back at early June levels.
Trade updates were also a key tailwind this week. On Thursday, Trump said the US and China signed a trade deal. Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified it was a codification of the terms laid out in the Geneva talks last month, and also said that deals are imminent with 10 trading partners. Reports this week also said the EU may lower tariffs on US imports to secure a deal before the July 9th deadline. The White House press secretary and Treasury Secretary Bessent also suggested trade negotiation timelines could be extended. However, Trump said Friday he’s cutting off trade talks with Canada and may impose a fresh tariff next week.
However, the reconciliation bill remains a key market overhang. Senate GOP leadership may put the bill to a vote as soon as this Sunday night. Timing remains uncertain, particularly after the Senate parliamentarian rejection of a slew of major provisions in the bill. House Speaker Johnson said Friday there is a tentative deal on SALT, though also earlier opened the door to a delay past the self-imposed 4-Jul deadline.
This week’s dovish repricing around the Fed rate path was tabbed in part to a report that said Trump may be getting ready to name a Chair nominee as soon as this summer, who is likely to pursue a more dovish path than Powell. However, heightened shadow Fed chair speculation is also seen as a growing market risk, which some say could have consequences around trust in Fed independence and credibility.
Fedspeak last week continued to show the emerging split between hawkish and dovish camps. Fed Vice Chair Bowman said it would be appropriate to consider lowering the policy rate as soon as next month if data cooperate. However, Fed Chair reiterated in his prepared remarks to Congress this week that policy remains well positioned to wait and watch before adjusting rates. Markets are now pricing in around 64 bp of cuts through year-end, up from ~50 bp a week ago.
A steeper rate cut path was also driven in part by weaker economic data. June Consumer Confidence missed, housing starts and permits were both weaker than expected, which some economists said could be reaching levels that signal recession. May core PCE was hotter than expected, while both May personal spending and personal income posted surprise declines. June flash PMIs were mixed, but the biggest focus was on input and output prices, which jumped to the highest level in over two years.
Data next week include the Chicago PMI followed by ISM Manufacturing and May JOLTS on Tuesday. Data Wednesday include June ADP private payrolls, which is expected to jump to 120K from last month’s 37K. June nonfarm payrolls are out Thursday. Headline payrolls are expected to slow to 125K from May’s 140K. Average hourly earnings are expected to tick down 0.1 pp m/m to 0.3%, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up 0.1 pp to 4.3%, which would be the highest since Jul-24.
Fixed Income: – Yields fell across the curve this week but the 2 year fell the most at 16 bps since last week. This all helped give bonds some upside.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 547 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 34 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 6/6/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in health care (62k), leisure and hospitality(42k), and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.4%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.15, a 0.4% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 6/26/2025 – In the week ending June 14th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 245,500, an increase of just 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 6/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales –Released 6/23/2025 –Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 6/18/2025 – Housing starts in May showed an annual rate of 1,256,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 924,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from May 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/17/25- Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.1 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.9 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.4 percent, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index– Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index–Released 6/11/2025– The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 6/5/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $138.3 billion in March (revised) to $61.6 billion in April, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $75.2 billion in April to $87.4 billion. The services surplus increased $1.5 billion in April to $25.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in May, the first time since June 2024, The Services PMI® indicated slight contraction at 49.9 percent, below the 50-percent breakeven point for only the fourth time in 60 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. In May, the Services PMI® registered 49.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the April figure of 51.6 percent. The Business Activity Index was ‘unchanged’ in May, registering 50 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent recorded in April. This is the index’s first month out of expansion territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/2/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/2/2025 – Construction spending during April 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.4 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,162.0 billion. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. During the first four months of this year, construction spending amounted to $660.2 billion, 1.4 percent above the $651.3 billion for the same period in 2024.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 25, 2025
It only took 90 trading days for the market to make a full round trip from mid-February. From it’s intra day high on February 19th the S&P500 fell 21.1% in 34 days, the closing was on April 8th (-18.9%). It then took just 55 days to climb back to new all-time highs.
As markets head higher, valuations are still elevated.
Easing geopolitical tensions were a key tailwind this week. The US military strikes last weekend against Iranian nuclear development sites were met with an underwhelming response by Iran when it targeted US assets in the region. Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, putting Iran tensions on the backburner. Oil weakness was a further tailwind as WTI gave back all of gains made since Israel’s strikes two weeks ago and ended the week back at early June levels.
Trade updates were also a key tailwind this week. On Thursday, Trump said the US and China signed a trade deal. Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified it was a codification of the terms laid out in the Geneva talks last month, and also said that deals are imminent with 10 trading partners. Reports this week also said the EU may lower tariffs on US imports to secure a deal before the July 9th deadline. The White House press secretary and Treasury Secretary Bessent also suggested trade negotiation timelines could be extended. However, Trump said Friday he’s cutting off trade talks with Canada and may impose a fresh tariff next week.
However, the reconciliation bill remains a key market overhang. Senate GOP leadership may put the bill to a vote as soon as this Sunday night. Timing remains uncertain, particularly after the Senate parliamentarian rejection of a slew of major provisions in the bill. House Speaker Johnson said Friday there is a tentative deal on SALT, though also earlier opened the door to a delay past the self-imposed 4-Jul deadline.
This week’s dovish repricing around the Fed rate path was tabbed in part to a report that said Trump may be getting ready to name a Chair nominee as soon as this summer, who is likely to pursue a more dovish path than Powell. However, heightened shadow Fed chair speculation is also seen as a growing market risk, which some say could have consequences around trust in Fed independence and credibility.
Fedspeak last week continued to show the emerging split between hawkish and dovish camps. Fed Vice Chair Bowman said it would be appropriate to consider lowering the policy rate as soon as next month if data cooperate. However, Fed Chair reiterated in his prepared remarks to Congress this week that policy remains well positioned to wait and watch before adjusting rates. Markets are now pricing in around 64 bp of cuts through year-end, up from ~50 bp a week ago.
A steeper rate cut path was also driven in part by weaker economic data. June Consumer Confidence missed, housing starts and permits were both weaker than expected, which some economists said could be reaching levels that signal recession. May core PCE was hotter than expected, while both May personal spending and personal income posted surprise declines. June flash PMIs were mixed, but the biggest focus was on input and output prices, which jumped to the highest level in over two years.
Data next week include the Chicago PMI followed by ISM Manufacturing and May JOLTS on Tuesday. Data Wednesday include June ADP private payrolls, which is expected to jump to 120K from last month’s 37K. June nonfarm payrolls are out Thursday. Headline payrolls are expected to slow to 125K from May’s 140K. Average hourly earnings are expected to tick down 0.1 pp m/m to 0.3%, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up 0.1 pp to 4.3%, which would be the highest since Jul-24.
Fixed Income: – Yields fell across the curve this week but the 2 year fell the most at 16 bps since last week. This all helped give bonds some upside.
June FOMC Statement May Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 1 last week. There are 547 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 34 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 6/6/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in health care (62k), leisure and hospitality(42k), and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 6/26/2025 – In the week ending June 14th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 245,500, an increase of just 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales – Released 6/23/2025 – Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 6/18/2025 – Housing starts in May showed an annual rate of 1,256,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 924,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from May 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/17/25- Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.1 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.9 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.4 percent, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index – Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index – Released 6/11/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/5/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $138.3 billion in March (revised) to $61.6 billion in April, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $75.2 billion in April to $87.4 billion. The services surplus increased $1.5 billion in April to $25.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in May, the first time since June 2024, The Services PMI® indicated slight contraction at 49.9 percent, below the 50-percent breakeven point for only the fourth time in 60 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. In May, the Services PMI® registered 49.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the April figure of 51.6 percent. The Business Activity Index was ‘unchanged’ in May, registering 50 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent recorded in April. This is the index’s first month out of expansion territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/2/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/2/2025 – Construction spending during April 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.4 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,162.0 billion. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. During the first four months of this year, construction spending amounted to $660.2 billion, 1.4 percent above the $651.3 billion for the same period in 2024.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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