Investor sentiment swung dramatically over the course of last week. Early in the week, risk appetite was robust – markets were climbing a “wall of worry” as multiple concerns from earlier in the year (inflation, trade war) began to ease. The VIX fear index, which started the month above 20, plunged into the mid-teens by last Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels in weeks. This reflected growing complacency as equities kept reaching new highs and volatility sellers stepped in. Supporting this optimism, fund flows moved into risk assets: U.S. and global equity funds saw net inflows. Traders cited the “cooling inflation” narrative and hopes that the Fed would pivot to cuts as key reasons to dial up risk exposurereuters.com. Additionally, progress on the U.S.-China trade deal reduced one of the market’s major uncertainty overhangs, encouraging investors to rotate out of defensive havens. Overall US equities were lower on the week, with some moderate weekly gains for the major indices evaporating in Friday’s risk-off session amid the growing Israel-Iran conflict. Big tech was mixed, with Apple a laggard after an underwhelming WWDC.
Treasuries were stronger, with yields more than erasing the prior week’s increases. The market absorbed $119B in new Treasury issuance this week, with a $39B auction of 10s and a $22B sale of 30s both seeing strong demand. The dollar was down on the major crosses, with the DXY (1.0%) logging its third decline in the past four weeks and ending at its weakest point since early 2022 amid continued weakening of the American exceptionalism theme. Gold was up 3.2%. WTI crude rose 13.0% for the week, its largest weekly gain since October 2022, powered by a big Friday gain after Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Trade was once again a major thread in the narrative, with US-China talks in London reaching an agreement after more than two days of negotiation. However, the agreed framework largely confirmed the Geneva consensus, with China opening up exports of rare-earth products while allowing up to a 55% tariff on China’s imports to the US and allowing Chinese students back in US universities. For its part, China put a six-month limit on its rare-earth export licenses. All in all, the agreement did little but reset the table and open the path for more negotiations to come. However, with the 90-day reciprocal clock counting down there were multiple headlines about the difficulty of negotiations (reports US and Indian negotiators were hardening their positions in talks thought to offer an early win). In extemporaneous remarks Trump also hinted at the potential to ratchet auto tariffs higher, though he also hinted the July 9th reciprocal deadline could be extended.
Geopolitics seized the spotlight Thursday night into Friday after Israel launched a massive series of strikes against Iran, aimed at crippling its nuclear program and killing senior military commanders. The US characterized this as a unilateral action, though media reports suggested the White House had given the green light, and Trump has since expressed some support and called Tehran back to the bargaining table to conclude a nuclear deal. There were indications Israeli strikes could continue for some time. Iran’s initial retaliation with drones seemed to cause little damage but by Friday afternoon the IDF was reporting “all of Israel” was coming under fire. The unclear and evolving situation sparked a risk-off day in the markets and the largest single-day gain for crude since 2022.
On the economic front, headline and core May CPI came in below consensus, with limited signs of tariff impact; May PPI was similarly cool (both played into the narrative the Fed may have a freer hand to cut rates). Initial jobless claims were a touch above consensus while continuing claims printed at their highest since November 2021, though previews had suggested some seasonal factors may be at play. NFIB small-business optimism rose, breaking a four-month streak of declines, though the report continued to note elevated uncertainty. Finally, preliminary UMich consumer sentiment came in notably stronger than consensus, while inflation expectations at the one- and five-year time horizons moved lower.
Fixed Income: – Yields whipsawed by data and geopolitics but overall lower on the week, as investors balanced benign domestic data against an oil-driven inflation scare. The European Central Bank’s latest rate cut delivered its eighth consecutive cut, lowering the deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.00% as inflation nears the 2% targetajg.com. However, gains moderated later in the week after ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled the end of the easing cycle may be near, preparing markets for a possible pause in July.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 last week. There are 555 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 6/6/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in health care (62k), leisure and hospitality(42k), and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.4%.
Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.15, a 0.4% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 5/29/2025 – In the week ending June 7th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5000 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 6/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Producer Price Index– Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index–Released 6/11/2025– The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 6/5/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $138.3 billion in March (revised) to $61.6 billion in April, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $75.2 billion in April to $87.4 billion. The services surplus increased $1.5 billion in April to $25.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 6/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in May, the first time since June 2024, The Services PMI® indicated slight contraction at 49.9 percent, below the 50-percent breakeven point for only the fourth time in 60 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. In May, the Services PMI® registered 49.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the April figure of 51.6 percent. The Business Activity Index was ‘unchanged’ in May, registering 50 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent recorded in April. This is the index’s first month out of expansion territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/2/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/2/2025 – Construction spending during April 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.4 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,162.0 billion. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. During the first four months of this year, construction spending amounted to $660.2 billion, 1.4 percent above the $651.3 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/30/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.250 million units in April.
Personal Income – Released 5/30/2025 – Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April.
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 5/29/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/27/2025 – The economic mood has improved markedly after an earlier slump on trade-war fears, the Conference Board’s May survey of consumers showed. The survey’s headline index jumped to 98, up from 85.7 a month earlier, the first increase since November. Analysts had expected the gauge to hold steady from April. The turnaround accelerated after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce bilateral tariffs on May 12, said Stephanie Guichard, an economist at the Conference Board
Durable Goods – Released 5/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April were down following four consecutive monthly increases. New orders decreased $19.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $296.3 billion. This followed a 7.6 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $20.3 billion or 17.1 percent to $98.8 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/23/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in April 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 743,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent above the March 2025 rate of 670,000, and is 3.3 percent above the April 2024 rate of 719,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April 2025 was 504,000. This is 0.6 percent below the March 2025 estimate of 507,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in April 2025 was $518,400
Existing Home Sales –Released 5/22/2025 –Existing-home sales slid 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.00 million in April 2025. Year-over-year, sales retreated 2.0%.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2025 – March housing starts came in at 1,361,000, this ia 1.6% above the March rate. Building permits were 4.7% below the March.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/2025 – Industrial production was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 0.3 percent, and the index for utilities rose 3.3 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in April was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2025 – Headline retail sales, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 24, 2025
From Risk-On to Risk-Off:
Investor sentiment swung dramatically over the course of last week. Early in the week, risk appetite was robust – markets were climbing a “wall of worry” as multiple concerns from earlier in the year (inflation, trade war) began to ease. The VIX fear index, which started the month above 20, plunged into the mid-teens by last Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels in weeks. This reflected growing complacency as equities kept reaching new highs and volatility sellers stepped in. Supporting this optimism, fund flows moved into risk assets: U.S. and global equity funds saw net inflows. Traders cited the “cooling inflation” narrative and hopes that the Fed would pivot to cuts as key reasons to dial up risk exposurereuters.com. Additionally, progress on the U.S.-China trade deal reduced one of the market’s major uncertainty overhangs, encouraging investors to rotate out of defensive havens. Overall US equities were lower on the week, with some moderate weekly gains for the major indices evaporating in Friday’s risk-off session amid the growing Israel-Iran conflict. Big tech was mixed, with Apple a laggard after an underwhelming WWDC.
Treasuries were stronger, with yields more than erasing the prior week’s increases. The market absorbed $119B in new Treasury issuance this week, with a $39B auction of 10s and a $22B sale of 30s both seeing strong demand. The dollar was down on the major crosses, with the DXY (1.0%) logging its third decline in the past four weeks and ending at its weakest point since early 2022 amid continued weakening of the American exceptionalism theme. Gold was up 3.2%. WTI crude rose 13.0% for the week, its largest weekly gain since October 2022, powered by a big Friday gain after Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Trade was once again a major thread in the narrative, with US-China talks in London reaching an agreement after more than two days of negotiation. However, the agreed framework largely confirmed the Geneva consensus, with China opening up exports of rare-earth products while allowing up to a 55% tariff on China’s imports to the US and allowing Chinese students back in US universities. For its part, China put a six-month limit on its rare-earth export licenses. All in all, the agreement did little but reset the table and open the path for more negotiations to come. However, with the 90-day reciprocal clock counting down there were multiple headlines about the difficulty of negotiations (reports US and Indian negotiators were hardening their positions in talks thought to offer an early win). In extemporaneous remarks Trump also hinted at the potential to ratchet auto tariffs higher, though he also hinted the July 9th reciprocal deadline could be extended.
Geopolitics seized the spotlight Thursday night into Friday after Israel launched a massive series of strikes against Iran, aimed at crippling its nuclear program and killing senior military commanders. The US characterized this as a unilateral action, though media reports suggested the White House had given the green light, and Trump has since expressed some support and called Tehran back to the bargaining table to conclude a nuclear deal. There were indications Israeli strikes could continue for some time. Iran’s initial retaliation with drones seemed to cause little damage but by Friday afternoon the IDF was reporting “all of Israel” was coming under fire. The unclear and evolving situation sparked a risk-off day in the markets and the largest single-day gain for crude since 2022.
On the economic front, headline and core May CPI came in below consensus, with limited signs of tariff impact; May PPI was similarly cool (both played into the narrative the Fed may have a freer hand to cut rates). Initial jobless claims were a touch above consensus while continuing claims printed at their highest since November 2021, though previews had suggested some seasonal factors may be at play. NFIB small-business optimism rose, breaking a four-month streak of declines, though the report continued to note elevated uncertainty. Finally, preliminary UMich consumer sentiment came in notably stronger than consensus, while inflation expectations at the one- and five-year time horizons moved lower.
Fixed Income: – Yields whipsawed by data and geopolitics but overall lower on the week, as investors balanced benign domestic data against an oil-driven inflation scare. The European Central Bank’s latest rate cut delivered its eighth consecutive cut, lowering the deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.00% as inflation nears the 2% targetajg.com. However, gains moderated later in the week after ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled the end of the easing cycle may be near, preparing markets for a possible pause in July.
May FOMC Statement May Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 last week. There are 555 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 35 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
May Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 6/6/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued to trend up in health care (62k), leisure and hospitality(42k), and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/29/2025 – In the week ending June 7th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5000 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 6/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Producer Price Index – Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index – Released 6/11/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 6/5/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $138.3 billion in March (revised) to $61.6 billion in April, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $75.2 billion in April to $87.4 billion. The services surplus increased $1.5 billion in April to $25.8 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 6/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector contracted in May, the first time since June 2024, The Services PMI® indicated slight contraction at 49.9 percent, below the 50-percent breakeven point for only the fourth time in 60 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. In May, the Services PMI® registered 49.9 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the April figure of 51.6 percent. The Business Activity Index was ‘unchanged’ in May, registering 50 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent recorded in April. This is the index’s first month out of expansion territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 6/2/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 6/2/2025 – Construction spending during April 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.4 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,162.0 billion. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. During the first four months of this year, construction spending amounted to $660.2 billion, 1.4 percent above the $651.3 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/30/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.250 million units in April.
Personal Income – Released 5/30/2025 – Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April.
Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 5/29/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 5/27/2025 – The economic mood has improved markedly after an earlier slump on trade-war fears, the Conference Board’s May survey of consumers showed. The survey’s headline index jumped to 98, up from 85.7 a month earlier, the first increase since November. Analysts had expected the gauge to hold steady from April. The turnaround accelerated after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce bilateral tariffs on May 12, said Stephanie Guichard, an economist at the Conference Board
Durable Goods – Released 5/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April were down following four consecutive monthly increases. New orders decreased $19.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $296.3 billion. This followed a 7.6 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $20.3 billion or 17.1 percent to $98.8 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/23/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in April 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 743,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent above the March 2025 rate of 670,000, and is 3.3 percent above the April 2024 rate of 719,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April 2025 was 504,000. This is 0.6 percent below the March 2025 estimate of 507,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in April 2025 was $518,400
Existing Home Sales – Released 5/22/2025 – Existing-home sales slid 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.00 million in April 2025. Year-over-year, sales retreated 2.0%.
Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2025 – March housing starts came in at 1,361,000, this ia 1.6% above the March rate. Building permits were 4.7% below the March.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/2025 – Industrial production was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 0.3 percent, and the index for utilities rose 3.3 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in April was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average
Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2025 – Headline retail sales, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.
This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple Moving Average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
Categories:
Tags: