In episode 44 of The Market Enthusiast, Noah Brooks and Chris Needs connect the dots between history, today’s highs, and the innovations shaping tomorrow’s economy:
Welcome back everybody to another installment of the market enthusiast.
Of course I’m Noah Brooks and with me is Chris needs. Hello everyone. I’m going to sound like a broken record right now, but we are again at all time highs in the stock market. Dow’s at all time highs, S and P 500s at all time highs. I mean, it just keeps moving. How did we get here? There’s lots of good themes. We haven’t had the normal August, September seasonality. ⁓ You know, it’s been a nice course since that rapid recovery from April. And while Q3 has slowed down in that ascent, it has still been low volatility. time we were sitting in here doing this, we were talking about Nvidia reporting. And since then, we’ve had some blowout reports and some news that have kind of changed things on the tech side. Yesterday was Oracle, right? Huge report. Yeah, Larry Ellison temporarily apparently for a few hours moved ahead of Elon Musk for world richest man, but they reported 77 % year over year cloud growth in terms of revenue 383 % increase year over year in contracted revenue. 383 % growth. saw the stock up as much as 42 % the next day after earnings. They were already I think the 12th largest company in SMP 500. It was it was a big day. I would love to see Ellison and Musk in a celebrity boxing match. I think that would be great. The two of the world’s richest guys just duking it out. And his son and Larry Ellison son David is now making a push, I guess, for Warner Brothers as well. is that right? The whole paramount deal that they just closed out. Make a moves. Maybe you got a little loan from daddy. Yeah, maybe. But you know, it’s interesting, though, when you look at the the market caps of these two companies, Oracle is significantly smaller. I think it’s like six hundred and ⁓ ninety billion dollar market cap where Tesla’s three point four trillion and when you say when you think about it from a perspective of okay these guys were the same wealth over time. Ellison owns so much more of 43 % I think I saw. Yeah. But how old is Oracle? It’s like 90s late 80s 80s. I think Larry Ellison started himself in late 70s. Wow. Yeah, I’m pretty sure. Pretty sure. But yeah, I mean, that is just one of the reasons why we’re at an all time high today. Certainly there’s others. ⁓ the Nvidia report seemed to be pretty good. I mean, the reaction wasn’t strong, but the report was good. It affirmed the AI story, which was of course what everyone was waiting on. And the numbers were still big. didn’t beat by leaps and bounds, you know, like two or three years ago they might have, and the stock sort of temporarily reacted as such, but It was a good report. Yeah. Um, what else is driving some of this market? mean, right now we have growth that’s up about 14 % for the year value. I know it’s still behind a little bit, but your dividend payers, they’re up around 11%. Um, small caps are starting to get involved. We’ve been talking about that for a while. Uh, they’re up close to 5%, uh, depending on which, which index you look at the Russell 2000 is up almost 10. Yes. And P 600 small cap is up almost five. And mid caps are up six and a quarter. mean, everything seems to be working. And then you have the bond market. Yeah, we were talking about that a little bit earlier. You had some 10 year yields dropped down a little bit. They were, I think they cracked below 4%. ⁓ But that’s why because just seemed like a month ago, we were riding much higher towards 5%. Yeah, I definitely thought the 10 was going to hit five before it hit four. Yeah, right. I mean, that was just in the cards. We got some weak data points. And then yields reacted as they do in ⁓ employment and claims and things like that are cool, we’ll say. Yeah, we’ll we’ll cover some of that stuff. ⁓ Was there anything else company wise that you were you were looking at? We did have the big report a couple weeks ago. ⁓ Alphabet won their court case will say they don’t have to divest Chrome and ⁓ Android. So they get to keep the business together. We’ll chalk that up as a win for them. Sure. They have, rallied. mean, yeah, they were out, think 7 % the day after that ruling. Um, so we’ll chalk that up as a win for them. And they have three or they have five business units earning over $30 billion in revenue. So you could say those would all be S and P 500 companies. they’re a conglomerate. There may be a little bit of discount and, Coincidentally, I’m reading Titan, Life of John D Rockefeller. And we all know his story, right? Sure. Standard oil. Standard oil. 1890 Sherman Antitrust Act broke him up in 1911. he went from being worth about 300 million at that time, and they broke him up. Obviously, that’s a bad thing, right? You would think so. But it wasn’t. Tripled his wealth in the next two years. everyone who doesn’t know Standard Oil was a basket of valuable assets that clearly had a huge conglomerate discount because of what happened after he went from being worth 300 million in 1911 to 900 million in 1913. So think of Exxon, ConocoPhillips. US arm of BP, who am I missing? There’s a couple others in there. mean, Marathon is one of them. mean, they were Chevron, Chevron, right? They were broken up into, think, over 30 different companies. There was like Standard Oil of Ohio and ⁓ Richfield, I think Atlantic Richfield, which which actually was Standard Oil of Ohio, but there was 30 different companies. And then over time, they just they merged into other companies. And you have the these big majors now. Exxon itself was the most valuable company in the world for over the years since that time, maybe 17 some years, at least since the late eight mid late. I remember the nineties in the top 10 in the S and P 500. There was Affleck GE Exxon and they always volleyed for, you know, the top three top four at that point in time. Um, and now it’s kind of, I mean, you know, the, the energy we talk about electricity and things here. but energy is such a small portion of the S and P 500. I think it’s less than 4 % right at the moment where tech is obviously a much larger portion than energy is. Uh, I don’t know that that’s ever gonna really change. I mean, it doesn’t like it right now. No, no, it doesn’t look like it. So what did you make of that? The book on, um, the breakup or anything. It just goes through his whole life. his beginning wife life was rough. Apologies. ⁓ You know, he was introverted. You know, his father was in and out of the house for weeks and months at a time. His mother basically raised him. And I would say maybe introverted is the way he was. So ⁓ big analysis geek, you know, down to the scent. was maybe a home bookkeeper. for the family finances. he use Excel? ⁓ Don’t think he did. But he got his start in commodities trading. And then ⁓ that naturally evolved in Titusville, Pennsylvania, when your discovery of oil and its potential uses came about. He was in the Cleveland area at the time, and slowly shifted into the oil game, started buying up refineries, and spitballed from there. Yeah. Did you finish the book? I’m not through the book yet. I’m about 250 pages in on about a 700 page book. We’ll get there. Yeah, I have time. I did just get a new book I want to read though. Da Vinci Da Vinci Code author Dan Brown, one of my favorite authors just had a new book come out on the ninth secret of secrets. So we’ll see. Yeah, I might have to pause my John D Rockefeller reading. So I didn’t finish the book yet. Hefty book. It’s about 700 pages. So ⁓ I was reading a little bit last night and then the wife wanted to put on a show. we watched, we’ve already watched it, but started rewatching scandal. I wasn’t too into it, you put down your book to rewatch scandal. did. I didn’t really look at the, I didn’t read the book. I put it down, but then end up, you know, two screening and are so many better shit. Well, I have not seen scandal, maybe one or two episodes, but there’s so many good things on right now. ⁓ what was the thing that we watched a few weeks ago? Mickey 17. It’s about, ⁓ it’s about bio printing and essentially they tap into your brain. They take all of your data and then as your body dies, they can give you a new body and you don’t even remember the, you might remember it, but so it’s about moving through outer space and moving to different, you know, the civil as a taking the civilization with you and moving to a new planet. And they just print bodies. Carbon copies. Yeah, carbon copies. That’s that’s Mickey 17. Highly recommend it. Oh, the other one and we were a little bit late on this but people are talking about it. The unknown number the high school catfish. Did you hear about it? I’ve heard of that. That’s creepy. It is strange. Yeah, if you I won’t give any spoilers but If you have an opportunity to watch it, it’s about this young girl in high school. I think she was 13 when it started and she started getting texts, really crazy stuff. And essentially someone was stalking her and it turns out in the end, ⁓ you can’t even imagine how the end is. It’s, really nutty. I would, I would definitely check that out. ⁓ and then we just came on, ⁓ the 20 year anniversary of hurricane Katrina. That’s on Netflix. I think it’s come hell or high water. You start thinking about it. Do where were you for Katrina? Do remember? mean, I just remember through the guys of football and like how, how, you know, they had to not play there obviously. And everybody was in the superdome. That was sort of the refuge, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. Ailish and I, think it was my first trip out of the country. We’re in Italy and we were in a hotel and watching I CNN international or something or Fox international. And they’re showing these pictures of, you know, the devastation. So we go and we watch this on Netflix for, you know, a 20 year marker, if you will. And the thing that I didn’t remember about it was so it was a hurricane. It was a category five hurricane that came through and it did a lot of damage to the area. And I think there were some deaths with just the, you know, the, wind speed. ⁓ trees falling, your house is being damaged, but it wasn’t all that bad. And it wasn’t until a day or two after the hurricane left was all well on shore, hundreds of miles and sure. Yeah. And the levees broke, right? That is, ⁓ that’s when the water came in. That’s where the flooding happened. That’s where people were trapped at the superdome, ⁓ trapped at the convention center. So, You know, most of the cities below sea level too. So it probably just sat there. Well, the thing that, that, you know, as you’re watching this, it brings back memories of the storm and watching it for sure. But the thing that kind of freaked me out is what I didn’t remember was a lot of people died in their attic. And you say that and you’re like, well, why would people die in your attic? But if there’s water coming into your house, I think the natural reaction is to move to higher ground. Yeah. And there’s a lot of people that couldn’t necessarily get to their roof. So they’re going to go up into their attic, but the water just kept coming and coming and coming. Um, so it details some of that stuff. And I, can you imagine being trapped in the attic, the water rising? And if you’re an older person, you don’t have a chainsaw or any type of a breaker bar, break your way out, your way out. mean, you’re, trapped in the attic. Uh, it’s just, it’s incredible. So I would forget the scandal. Yeah. mean, we’re living in the golden age of television and you’re rewatching something from 10. I’m not opposed. Yeah. Sorry, Lex. I would be remiss. mean, we’re talking about 20 years from, uh, from Katrina, but we are 24 years and I think we’re, people are going to be hearing this the day after nine 11. Um, so I always like to take a moment to talk about that. Where were you for nine 11? You remember? Fifth grade, Mr. Belletta’s social studies class. Yeah. I was a new advisor, fairly new advisor, a few years in the industry, ⁓ at Prudential securities in Allentown, Pennsylvania. And I just, I mean, obviously the whole situation happened. The stock exchange closed down and I remember leaving the office probably at like 11 o’clock, maybe noon and just looking up and it was this clear, gorgeous September day with these big, puffy, Simpsons-like clouds. And it’s something that I don’t think I’ll ever forget that. I mean, there’s lots of things we can talk about, 9-11. But that, for me, is really the one memory that just resonates over and over and over again. I won’t go down a rabbit hole on this, but we don’t get attacked. from external forces all that often. ⁓ it certainly does happen. Sometimes we get attacked by internal forces like, Oklahoma city bombing or something. ⁓ but Osama bin Laden, his stated goal was to, to draw us into an endless war and essentially to bankrupt us. And we’re, we’re, you know, depending on who you talk to, we’re not bankrupt at the moment. ⁓ but the cost of those wars, mean, he definitely, helped run up our debt. Some of the estimates out there up until 2022, the cost of all of that stuff, like the direct war, having men fighting in the desert, the homeland security, the veterans care, interest on the spending. I mean, it’s upwards of $6 trillion. And I just think to myself, what would this country look like? It probably looks similar, but you don’t really know what would be different if that hadn’t have happened. And you could say, well, it would have happened at a later date or some other situation would have happened. But I mean, that really changed the course of history pretty dramatically. And our perceptions of safety, like you said, the homeland doesn’t get attacked, you know? Yeah. Well, that’s all I’m going to say about that today. ⁓ Let’s flip back to economics for a little bit. We were here a few days. before the jobs report came out. last Friday jobs report came out. Not so great. Yeah. 22,000 jobs. We revised June back to negative. So it was a negative month. Um, and then we had right on the back of that, the BLS annual revisions from March of 24 to March of 25, 911,000 jobs that weren’t really there. That sort of just disappeared. You know, we, we did talk about this and you and I debated all the time. So these job numbers that the BLS comes out with are done on a survey basis. But so now they go back in this revision, they’re going back and getting the state, ⁓ tax data to line up with their jobs numbers. And you know, based on that state tax data, how many people, an employee is excuse me, an employer is paying state taxes on. And I think to myself, well, why do we have to go backwards? Why can’t that be a monthly number that they’re getting? have the technology, don’t we? I mean, you can see, I’m telling you, when I was in school, I worked at Staples, I’m talking 1993. And so however many years like 3032 years ago, They could tell you up to the moment on their system in 1993, how much was being sold, what the margin for the day was, what the average sale for the day was. And we can’t tell how many people get jobs. probably have different systems between the states and the federal system. the federal is a survey versus the quote unquote hard data. When you get it from the states on the tax data that I guess feeds through to what determines this revision number. But yeah, I don’t think there’s a good excuse either. think ⁓ there should be a way to link those up in more real time. I mean, you should be able to see by the day how many people are laid off or added. And maybe not today, maybe the week. Shoot, if Staples could do it in 1993 for the store, come on guys. is, this is just, this is silly. ⁓ like the survey thing, I think it’s good to ask the employers, but don’t we want the hard data? Yeah. Don’t the economists, doesn’t the Fed itself want the hard data? They would make much better decisions instead of going backwards and saying, well, you we’re actually going to lower the monthly jobs from a, instead of being 170,000 created, it’s actually only 95,000 a month we were created. that what we lose? were loosely calculating it out and ended up being 75,000 jobs a month were actually not created. Yeah. So in 24, in 2024, was monthly number was 170,000 jobs. remember last year, it was in August, I think the quote unquote some rule indicator was triggered just for one month. And you know how that’s a herald of a potential recession on the horizon previously was a perfect indicator. And if we had known those revisions then we would have been way above the summer. Yeah. So I don’t know, we’ve been operating under this perception that the labor markets, I guess, a little bit tighter than it actually has been. We had the Jolt report come out a couple weeks ago. think it was 7.18 million jobs open versus 7.37 ⁓ jobs were expected to be open in the job openings report. So for the first time in a while, we have more unemployed people then there is job openings. my concern on that is back in 21 and 22, it was essentially there was two open jobs for every one person looking. And so it became a situation where the people, it was essentially an employee’s market demanding higher wages because they could pick between a couple of absolutely right. And that’s where a lot of the wage inflation comes in. I’m not saying we shouldn’t, you know, people shouldn’t be compensated fairly anything like that, but that’s where a lot of the inflation. inflation numbers come from the job quits were high because they’re just job hopping. Everybody was job hopping. Now we’re in this situation where the hopping is I don’t want to say it’s dead, but it is really calmed down pretty dramatically instead of it being two jobs open for every one person looking it’s more like one job open for every person looking but this Joel job open and labor turnover survey is using are they using good data? Yeah, what if it turns out that there’s only a half a job open? for everybody looking. Now the we heard back when there were that huge out number of job openings per person that some of these weren’t real jobs. They’re like teasers out there where they were literally looking for like the optimal person they didn’t need to fill a seat imminently. So like how true is that of a job opening if you’re just waiting for the perfect candidate and you could wait two years to get them sure. ⁓ Maybe that shouldn’t show up. So just keeping but they can filter that job. the requisition open right just indefinitely exactly and counting that when the person they’re not actually looking to hire someone it’s kind of like well if this perfect person falls in my lap yeah we’re hiring them and that’s that’s a little bit concerning because you would think if the Federal Reserve had this type of data real time that maybe they would have maybe they would have lowered a lot they might have kept cutting after yeah I mean so the last cut was December we haven’t seen anything I think with these revisions, you know, and I still say that the Federal Reserve is stuck in a really bad spot because inflation has been ramping up a little bit and we’ll cover wholesale inflation. had some numbers come out this week. ⁓ Inflation is, you know, it’s not at their 2 % target rate. It doesn’t look like it’s going to get there anytime soon. So naturally they’re not in a position where they want to cut, but then you have this job situation where ⁓ they may need to cut. always have to remind myself that the Federal Reserve is okay with the economy having a little bit of pain. Yeah, right. They were okay with it. And rightly so raising interest rates to to cut inflation. I do think they were late to the game on that. And they probably are a little bit late in lowering. And I say a little bit. I mean, I don’t think they’re a year late or anything like that. But they probably could have lowered in July, they probably could have done it a month or two prior to it. But now you have this massive revision. I’m not saying that they have egg on their face, but they might have some egg on their face. We talked about just before the last monthly jobs report, pal said two days prior, how strong it was. Yeah. And then we got this awful jobs report and we’re like, how did he not have insight into that? And I mean, this is just furthering that point. Yeah. Well, the, white house and the certainly the administration, I don’t want to say they’re going to have a field day with it, but I mean, they’re already, say, I told you so. Right. Yeah. There’s, there’s no question about it. ⁓ so while we’re talking about jobs, the BLS actually did come out with a report. Now we can make fun of the BLS. I hope this report is accurate. I, seems like it could be more accurate, ⁓ cause it’s not hard data. It’s, it’s more, what the expectation is, but they came out with a report of, ⁓ the, the type of jobs that are going to be in demand. for the next, let’s say five or six years. ⁓ And what the percentage growth of these jobs are. Now, this is a trick question, because I know you know the answer. What’s the number one job growth at a 50 % annualized rate? I’m thinking of it more of in a sectors perspective. I’m looking at tech. Obviously, we’re in the midst of an AI boom. And they’re probably very highly compensated. I don’t know the answer of what your yours actually has. did my own separate research, but tech healthcare, we do have aging ⁓ people and then still you’re going to have skilled labor that can’t be replaced by computers. Yeah. No, no question about it. You’re plumbers, right? You’re HVAC laborers. Yeah. Like me. ⁓ people who, people who replace your windshield, I needed to go into a safe flight to get my windshield fixed recently. You don’t think that could be done with a robot? Definitely could be it is probably done by a robot in the actual shops. Yeah, yeah, no question about it. So the number one job expectation of job growth, and it may be not aggregate, but as a percentage is wind turbine service tech, they’re expecting an annualized growth rate up until 3034 2034 of a 50 % annualized number. So renewable tech. Well, that one. Yeah, that, that is definitely renewable. but the second one and it falls to your, your sector is a photovoltaic installer, like solar installers. I mean, doesn’t that tell us something about where we’re headed? You know, I, I, when COVID happened, ⁓ we talked about, ⁓ change happens slow and then it happens fast. And obviously there’s electric cars out there. and they’re coming online and you’re starting to see them. And yeah, everybody’s like, maybe I’ll get one or maybe I won’t, or maybe I’ll have a half a one, you know, in my, in my garage, not half a car, but you know, some of the car is, but at some point they’re going to drop on us a car that could be charged in three minutes that has 1500 miles of range. And you’re going to be like, hi, how can I beat that? Yeah. Right. So You know, this is an investment advice, but these jobs out there are definitely in the renewables. Uh, now as far as sectors, what else do you think? Healthcare, healthcare, right? Nurse practitioners, uh, annualized rate of 40 % until 34 in terms of job growth. So not so much in doctors, but you need those people that are like a doctor, they can write a prescription. whether it’s a minute clinic or at a doctor’s office. Yeah. And I mean, that’s that’s where the job growth is. Yeah. Now you did another ⁓ you didn’t look at the BLS numbers. But you looked at some numbers based on what would happen and what the change that would occur as the ⁓ robotization and as AI took over some of the jobs. What do you have on yours? So yeah, I looked at post AI revolution. So the results may have been slightly skewed, but it was, I think eight out of 10 were tech jobs and it’s varying levels of data scientists probably combing through the LLM data and prepping it or altering it so that it’s readable and high quality for the system to read and give a reliable output. ⁓ You had software engineers, know, all those types of jobs, but then the other one was healthcare that was represented even in that one. Yeah. I was I saw something the other day where one of the hotel chains and it wasn’t a high end. wasn’t like a Marriott or a Hilton, but it wasn’t a super low, like a super eight or something. It was kind of the mid mid tier hotel chain was experimenting with check-ins where you were talking to a screen. You’re talking to a big iPad and a person in this particular case, they were offshore, but you would go into the motel hotel and you would check in and you’re person wasn’t a person while they were a person that is not in front of you. I mean, that makes sense. I mean, at some of the hotels I’ve been recently, you can check in on your phone and you can opt into using your phone as a key if they have the right, you know, sure stuff there. You bypass checking completely just like with my car, my phone would be my key to get into my room. Yeah. Well think about it at the airport and I don’t think they’re ever going to go to this at the airport. But I mean, nowadays it’s facial recognition that’s going to get you in and out. And I guess at the airport, I’m, I’m great with that. If it saves me a few minutes walking through the TSA line or the someone throw a fit that it’s like, not letting it take my photo. not letting that happen. You’re worried about them taking a photo. already have airport. already have you a million times over. Yeah. Every possible piece of information that you have is out there probably available for sale. I have seen it relatively recently. A lady in front of us was yeah, she wasn’t having it and the she was allowed to opt out of it. I saw someone freak out about it too. And the guy was just like, Okay, go ahead. I they got the full pat down. Now. I was gonna call her a Karen. But I do know some Karens out there and they are getting tired of people calling them Karen. That’s their name. How about the Karen Ballsteeler from the other day, the Phillies. yeah, that was real awkward. I felt bad for that kid. But then the dad’s reaction was really bizarre, too. He was like, Yeah, it was strange. He was scared that she came over and took it back. That was really weird. Come on. You’re an adult at a baseball game. What do you need that ball for? Isn’t now? I have never caught a ball at a game, but I’ve been to some Phillies games where you’re out. you know, in left field and a ball flies. And it’s basically every man for themselves at that point or woman. It’ll hit off at three, four people before someone gets it. But apparently this lady thought because it hit her seat that somehow she was entitled to this ball. Uh, I don’t know if you’ve seen first time in a baseball game. Yeah, that’s exactly what it seems like. I don’t know if her name’s Karen, but she’s definitely a Karen. Uh, did you see the memes that they made of her? I saw a few. where she turns around after taking the ball from the guy and she still slowly starts to morph into a golem. Yeah. Right. ⁓ man. And so I actually heard the guy, cause he’s a Philadelphia native. I heard him speak on one of the news shows and he, he asked for everybody to calm down and not to take it out on her. He specifically said, I don’t want anybody to go into her house and rough her up. my and I thought that seems weird. Are you actually telling us that you do want that to happen? The kid made out anyway though you see he got like a signed bat and got to me. ⁓ whoever hit the homerun I forget this. mean if you’re sitting and I’m not talking about your kid but if you’re at a game and a ball comes to you and there’s a kid next to you and you get it. Are you obliged to give that little kid the ball? I would. I mean it’s a baseball. Unless it’s like Barry bonds is 760 second home run where you’re going to get like 30, you know, some crazy dollar amount for it. Yeah. If it’s a home run ball at a random game or like a fly, even worse, a foul ball. You give that ball away, right? Give it to the kid. I don’t think this lady did herself any good. ⁓ if you haven’t seen it, ⁓ take a look at it. I I felt really bad. earlier this year we took Nolan to his first baseball game. It was just the rank Phillies right in town here. And a ball went foul is going way behind us. But the crazy smell of the ball came right back. I had Livia right next to me. And I said to Lex cover Livia because it’s coming back. And I went to catch it. Elbow to Lex are right in the head getting my left arm over because I had it around Livia. And I went Elbow to right in the didn’t get the ball just crushed my hand and bounced away and I didn’t go run over and demand it hit my hand right. I have a son over here. If you if it comes to you and you get it, it’s yours. If you want to give it to a kid, do it. But you can’t hunt the ball back down and say it touched my seat. Definitely not. But no one says to me right after when I didn’t catch you said, Dad, I thought you were good at football. I’m like, football? What? He’s a you’re killing me two ways over here. Yeah. But back to these jobs. ⁓ You know, one of the things that we saw in the last inflation report was that fruits and veg had gone up by close to 40%. It was like 39%. And you think about it, most of those, I don’t want to say picking, but most of the jobs are labor intensive, depending on what it Agricultural labor intensive jobs. Yeah, actually picking strawberries is very labor intensive. That is going to be robotized at some point in the future. I mean, there is no question about it. I saw over the last two weeks, John Deere, bought a robotic spraying company that uses artificial intelligence to track where it goes. So now, now we can have a whole debate about what we put on our foods. I think that’s a, that that’s worthy of a debate. I don’t know that we’ll have it on this. don’t have the scientific know how to speak eloquently. should get somebody on here to do that. Um, but they, they’re investing a lot of money in technology that will allow farmers. They’re going to buy this thing from John Deere, they’re gonna put it out in their field, it’s gonna do all the work, and there’s not gonna be a single person there except to maybe put fuel in the tractor and maintain it, right, once it does its job. It’ll have photovoltaic wafers on there and solar panels, it’ll just keep right itself. I don’t know about that one. That would require a lot of PV right on the machine. But I mean, anything, I don’t care if it’s driving a bus, driving a plane, ⁓ taxi. mean all of these jobs where you’re basically just especially in the field you have a guy or a gal just driving this tractor back and forth. Why can’t that be done automated? Why can’t that be automated? It’s gonna be. So this company was called Gus, G-U-S-S and apparently they’ve been working testing some of their ⁓ automated sprayers for Which look like cyber trucks. do look like a giant cyber, right? Yeah. Um, so they’ve been tested it for a while and now they’ve actually went in and bought a hundred percent of the company. And you know, Caterpillar is another one that I suspect you’re going to see some of that robotization and artificial intelligence. Uh, years ago, some of the GPS manufacturers were on fire because you started to see them on bulldozers and earth moving equipment. And it was really helpful when you’re building. to know exactly where you are. If you have a large plot, I’m not talking like a little one acre plot, but a large plot, like you need to know where you are. And they can pinpoint that stuff down to the foot with those GPS, ⁓ on, on the tops of the machines. it’s just really kind of crazy. What’s, what’s going on in this world? ⁓ it brings me to, it brings me to something else here. So a lot of times people say, you know, I go, how are you going to get to the city or what are you doing? And I wind up saying, I took an Uber chopper. And they look at me like Uber has choppers. Like, no, I’m just, I’m just kidding. Turns out there’s a company that does that. Well in, in New York city, and obviously we don’t, we don’t live there. We’re closer to Philadelphia, but in New York and in London, there’s a company called blade. They have a spot in midtown that they pick you up by the river. I think it’s 34th street. I’ve never done it. ⁓ turns out Well, so these, this blade will take you to the airports, right? It will take you to JFK or LaCuardia or EWR. And it’s like a seven minute trip. And I think it’s $200 a seat. If you live in the city, actually doesn’t sound like a bad deal, right? And it’s a little extra for luggage, but you can take your luggage with you on the helicopter. Well, it turns out Uber bought blade and now Uber has Uber chopper and you’re going to be able to hit the button for Uber. and get a chopper and not anywhere but like at designated locations. They’re also partnering with the aviation company, Joby, that makes ⁓ electric vertical and takeoff. You want to call them hovercraft. They’re not choppers per se, but they’re going to be doing it where and again, I don’t know if they’re going to have a pilot, but it’s going to be just food, all electric, seven minutes to the airport. And man, I hope it comes to Philadelphia, right? Taking it from the train station to right to the airport. Yeah, shoot. I hope it comes to Redding. I think that’d be phenomenal. I would pay up for it. Joby stock was going wild for a bit there. Yeah. I’m not surprised that there was some takeover interest. Joby Archer. Another Archer is another one. These aviation startups. mean, I don’t know that our future, at least in the next, let’s say, you five years is going to be filled with flying cars. But in 10 or 20, where this battery tech is able to finally get the Jetsons. Yeah, predicted. No, no nuclear cars, just electric batteries. Yeah. Interesting stuff. Interesting stuff. ⁓ How do we want to close up today? Any, any stats out there that we should ⁓ relay? I think just reiterating, you know, We had those inflation numbers out. PPI came in really cool. So you had called into where we’re at with the BLS and the data. You saw that PPI number is like, uh-oh, maybe there is a finger on the data. And that came in really cool. 2.6 versus 3.3 expected year over year. A over a month was negative. Negative 0.1. And it’s, I’m like, Oh boy, that seems. interesting. That could be a good or a bad thing. for the record, it’s not just good that it was low. ⁓ But then CPI came in. Wasn’t hot. It was we’ll call it warm. Yeah, point four versus point three, month over month. And I think the market was mostly happy was mostly up today on that we’re talking on Wednesday. At least when we came in here, it was up a little bit. So I think they’re happy it wasn’t a larger increase based on you know, where we’ve seen trends. beef, ⁓ coffee were a couple of the hotter areas you had already minted fruits they weren’t as much as up as much as they were previously but they were still up and I would say the biggest ⁓ negative component would be gasoline was still coming in later and pulling down the CPI number a little bit I’m loving the gas numbers yeah I’m at well I put premium in this thing so it’s like $3.99 I’m feeling the love man ⁓ I definitely handle. Exactly. Exactly. ⁓ well listen, all of this stuff in the end, I think the, the leading indicator that you can count on of course is the market and stock market as we’re standing here talking today is at all time highs, ⁓ Dow’s at all time highs. Not that that means all that much, but the S and P is, ⁓ mid caps are small caps are a lot of sectors are. And so at least in the short term, doesn’t I mean, there’s there’s lots of reasons to be concerned. But right now, all of the data is pointing to the market moving higher, right? AI boom looks early ending still. Yeah. And we have a couple other pieces. We were joking about this the other day. Think about if that large number several trillions of dollars of foreign investment comes in, that would be a nice boon. Yeah. To keep the economy going. Maybe there’s some wealth effects. Not only do we have trillions of dollars in money markets that could come in if rates go lower upon these rate cuts that we expect. know, wealth effect from stock market at all time highs. And then additionally, maybe we can get some money out of our houses because it’s been locked up there, appreciated homes. ⁓ We’ve talked about that at length, how it’s kind of stalled out and it’s getting a little cooler in the ⁓ existing sales arena. there’s a lot of- Rates are coming down. Yeah, they are coming down. but there’s a lot of money in appreciated houses. I know I refied in 2021 and I’m not going to move anytime soon because of the rate I got, but there’s other people who may be itching to get some money out of their home, maybe do some additions or something like that. Some more money that could maybe come into the system. the average 10 year was close to a seven three at one point, uh, two years ago and we’re at six three today. My, I guess my thought would be when it starts with a five, right? When you get a five handle on a 30 year mortgage, it starts to be tenable and people start thinking about moving again. Yeah. You know, even if you have a lower rate, I mean you have a three and a half and you know, you go to a five, seven, five, it’s a big difference. But if you’ve been waiting and chomping at the bit to move out of your house or to get something bigger, ⁓ not necessarily to move to another state. Most of those people probably did that, but you start getting into that, that mid five range or upper end fives and people will start to move. No question about it. All right. Well, that’s what we’ll end it here today. Everybody. Thank you so much for listening. Comments, questions. ⁓ please send them in to us at market enthusiast at goodlifefa.com for everybody at good life. I’m Noah Brooks and Chris needs don’t bet against America. Anybody see you next time.
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but history shows innovation and adaptability drive wealth creation over time. Today’s rally rests on both strong corporate earnings and shaky labor data, leaving the Fed in a bind. For investors, the lesson is to stay diversified, keep an eye on long-term innovation themes, and remember that—just as Standard Oil’s breakup created value—periods of disruption can open up opportunity. Betting against American markets and ingenuity has never been a winning strategy.
Have questions about how this impacts your investment strategy? Reach out to your advisor or email us at marketenthusiast@goodlifefa.com.
The opinions voiced in this podcast are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecast set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
In episode 44 of The Market Enthusiast, Noah Brooks and Chris Needs connect the dots between history, today’s highs, and the innovations shaping tomorrow’s economy:
From Rockefellers to Robots — What the Standard Oil breakup reveals about conglomerates, antitrust, and how tech giants may follow similar patterns. Plus, how automation, robotics, and renewables are creating the fastest-growing jobs of the future.
All-Time Highs Across the Market — The Dow, S&P 500, and mid-caps are back at records. Noah and Chris unpack Oracle’s blowout results, Nvidia’s reaffirmed AI story, and Alphabet’s antitrust victory.
Labor Market Revisions & the Fed — With nearly one million jobs revised away by the BLS and inflation cooling unevenly, the Federal Reserve faces a tough balancing act between easing policy and keeping inflation under control.
Key Topics Covered in This Episode
History Meets Today’s Market
Lessons from John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil, and how “conglomerate discounts” can apply to modern megacaps like Alphabet.
Market Momentum
Why breadth is improving across growth, dividend payers, small caps, and mid-caps—and why that matters for investors.
Oracle, Nvidia & AI Influence
Oracle’s 77% cloud growth, Nvidia’s AI momentum, and what blockbuster tech earnings mean for the broader market.
Federal Reserve Outlook
Weak jobs data, massive labor revisions, and Powell’s policy dilemma with inflation still above target.
Robots, Renewables & the Future of Work
Growth in renewable energy jobs, healthcare demand, and AI-driven automation in industries from farming to transportation.
Investor Takeaways
Listen to the Full Episode
Full Episode Transcript
Welcome back everybody to another installment of the market enthusiast.
Of course I’m Noah Brooks and with me is Chris needs. Hello everyone. I’m going to sound like a broken record right now, but we are again at all time highs in the stock market. Dow’s at all time highs, S and P 500s at all time highs. I mean, it just keeps moving. How did we get here? There’s lots of good themes. We haven’t had the normal August, September seasonality. ⁓ You know, it’s been a nice course since that rapid recovery from April. And while Q3 has slowed down in that ascent, it has still been low volatility. time we were sitting in here doing this, we were talking about Nvidia reporting. And since then, we’ve had some blowout reports and some news that have kind of changed things on the tech side. Yesterday was Oracle, right? Huge report. Yeah, Larry Ellison temporarily apparently for a few hours moved ahead of Elon Musk for world richest man, but they reported 77 % year over year cloud growth in terms of revenue 383 % increase year over year in contracted revenue. 383 % growth. saw the stock up as much as 42 % the next day after earnings. They were already I think the 12th largest company in SMP 500. It was it was a big day. I would love to see Ellison and Musk in a celebrity boxing match. I think that would be great. The two of the world’s richest guys just duking it out. And his son and Larry Ellison son David is now making a push, I guess, for Warner Brothers as well. is that right? The whole paramount deal that they just closed out. Make a moves. Maybe you got a little loan from daddy. Yeah, maybe. But you know, it’s interesting, though, when you look at the the market caps of these two companies, Oracle is significantly smaller. I think it’s like six hundred and ⁓ ninety billion dollar market cap where Tesla’s three point four trillion and when you say when you think about it from a perspective of okay these guys were the same wealth over time. Ellison owns so much more of 43 % I think I saw. Yeah. But how old is Oracle? It’s like 90s late 80s 80s. I think Larry Ellison started himself in late 70s. Wow. Yeah, I’m pretty sure. Pretty sure. But yeah, I mean, that is just one of the reasons why we’re at an all time high today. Certainly there’s others. ⁓ the Nvidia report seemed to be pretty good. I mean, the reaction wasn’t strong, but the report was good. It affirmed the AI story, which was of course what everyone was waiting on. And the numbers were still big. didn’t beat by leaps and bounds, you know, like two or three years ago they might have, and the stock sort of temporarily reacted as such, but It was a good report. Yeah. Um, what else is driving some of this market? mean, right now we have growth that’s up about 14 % for the year value. I know it’s still behind a little bit, but your dividend payers, they’re up around 11%. Um, small caps are starting to get involved. We’ve been talking about that for a while. Uh, they’re up close to 5%, uh, depending on which, which index you look at the Russell 2000 is up almost 10. Yes. And P 600 small cap is up almost five. And mid caps are up six and a quarter. mean, everything seems to be working. And then you have the bond market. Yeah, we were talking about that a little bit earlier. You had some 10 year yields dropped down a little bit. They were, I think they cracked below 4%. ⁓ But that’s why because just seemed like a month ago, we were riding much higher towards 5%. Yeah, I definitely thought the 10 was going to hit five before it hit four. Yeah, right. I mean, that was just in the cards. We got some weak data points. And then yields reacted as they do in ⁓ employment and claims and things like that are cool, we’ll say. Yeah, we’ll we’ll cover some of that stuff. ⁓ Was there anything else company wise that you were you were looking at? We did have the big report a couple weeks ago. ⁓ Alphabet won their court case will say they don’t have to divest Chrome and ⁓ Android. So they get to keep the business together. We’ll chalk that up as a win for them. Sure. They have, rallied. mean, yeah, they were out, think 7 % the day after that ruling. Um, so we’ll chalk that up as a win for them. And they have three or they have five business units earning over $30 billion in revenue. So you could say those would all be S and P 500 companies. they’re a conglomerate. There may be a little bit of discount and, Coincidentally, I’m reading Titan, Life of John D Rockefeller. And we all know his story, right? Sure. Standard oil. Standard oil. 1890 Sherman Antitrust Act broke him up in 1911. he went from being worth about 300 million at that time, and they broke him up. Obviously, that’s a bad thing, right? You would think so. But it wasn’t. Tripled his wealth in the next two years. everyone who doesn’t know Standard Oil was a basket of valuable assets that clearly had a huge conglomerate discount because of what happened after he went from being worth 300 million in 1911 to 900 million in 1913. So think of Exxon, ConocoPhillips. US arm of BP, who am I missing? There’s a couple others in there. mean, Marathon is one of them. mean, they were Chevron, Chevron, right? They were broken up into, think, over 30 different companies. There was like Standard Oil of Ohio and ⁓ Richfield, I think Atlantic Richfield, which which actually was Standard Oil of Ohio, but there was 30 different companies. And then over time, they just they merged into other companies. And you have the these big majors now. Exxon itself was the most valuable company in the world for over the years since that time, maybe 17 some years, at least since the late eight mid late. I remember the nineties in the top 10 in the S and P 500. There was Affleck GE Exxon and they always volleyed for, you know, the top three top four at that point in time. Um, and now it’s kind of, I mean, you know, the, the energy we talk about electricity and things here. but energy is such a small portion of the S and P 500. I think it’s less than 4 % right at the moment where tech is obviously a much larger portion than energy is. Uh, I don’t know that that’s ever gonna really change. I mean, it doesn’t like it right now. No, no, it doesn’t look like it. So what did you make of that? The book on, um, the breakup or anything. It just goes through his whole life. his beginning wife life was rough. Apologies. ⁓ You know, he was introverted. You know, his father was in and out of the house for weeks and months at a time. His mother basically raised him. And I would say maybe introverted is the way he was. So ⁓ big analysis geek, you know, down to the scent. was maybe a home bookkeeper. for the family finances. he use Excel? ⁓ Don’t think he did. But he got his start in commodities trading. And then ⁓ that naturally evolved in Titusville, Pennsylvania, when your discovery of oil and its potential uses came about. He was in the Cleveland area at the time, and slowly shifted into the oil game, started buying up refineries, and spitballed from there. Yeah. Did you finish the book? I’m not through the book yet. I’m about 250 pages in on about a 700 page book. We’ll get there. Yeah, I have time. I did just get a new book I want to read though. Da Vinci Da Vinci Code author Dan Brown, one of my favorite authors just had a new book come out on the ninth secret of secrets. So we’ll see. Yeah, I might have to pause my John D Rockefeller reading. So I didn’t finish the book yet. Hefty book. It’s about 700 pages. So ⁓ I was reading a little bit last night and then the wife wanted to put on a show. we watched, we’ve already watched it, but started rewatching scandal. I wasn’t too into it, you put down your book to rewatch scandal. did. I didn’t really look at the, I didn’t read the book. I put it down, but then end up, you know, two screening and are so many better shit. Well, I have not seen scandal, maybe one or two episodes, but there’s so many good things on right now. ⁓ what was the thing that we watched a few weeks ago? Mickey 17. It’s about, ⁓ it’s about bio printing and essentially they tap into your brain. They take all of your data and then as your body dies, they can give you a new body and you don’t even remember the, you might remember it, but so it’s about moving through outer space and moving to different, you know, the civil as a taking the civilization with you and moving to a new planet. And they just print bodies. Carbon copies. Yeah, carbon copies. That’s that’s Mickey 17. Highly recommend it. Oh, the other one and we were a little bit late on this but people are talking about it. The unknown number the high school catfish. Did you hear about it? I’ve heard of that. That’s creepy. It is strange. Yeah, if you I won’t give any spoilers but If you have an opportunity to watch it, it’s about this young girl in high school. I think she was 13 when it started and she started getting texts, really crazy stuff. And essentially someone was stalking her and it turns out in the end, ⁓ you can’t even imagine how the end is. It’s, really nutty. I would, I would definitely check that out. ⁓ and then we just came on, ⁓ the 20 year anniversary of hurricane Katrina. That’s on Netflix. I think it’s come hell or high water. You start thinking about it. Do where were you for Katrina? Do remember? mean, I just remember through the guys of football and like how, how, you know, they had to not play there obviously. And everybody was in the superdome. That was sort of the refuge, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. Ailish and I, think it was my first trip out of the country. We’re in Italy and we were in a hotel and watching I CNN international or something or Fox international. And they’re showing these pictures of, you know, the devastation. So we go and we watch this on Netflix for, you know, a 20 year marker, if you will. And the thing that I didn’t remember about it was so it was a hurricane. It was a category five hurricane that came through and it did a lot of damage to the area. And I think there were some deaths with just the, you know, the, wind speed. ⁓ trees falling, your house is being damaged, but it wasn’t all that bad. And it wasn’t until a day or two after the hurricane left was all well on shore, hundreds of miles and sure. Yeah. And the levees broke, right? That is, ⁓ that’s when the water came in. That’s where the flooding happened. That’s where people were trapped at the superdome, ⁓ trapped at the convention center. So, You know, most of the cities below sea level too. So it probably just sat there. Well, the thing that, that, you know, as you’re watching this, it brings back memories of the storm and watching it for sure. But the thing that kind of freaked me out is what I didn’t remember was a lot of people died in their attic. And you say that and you’re like, well, why would people die in your attic? But if there’s water coming into your house, I think the natural reaction is to move to higher ground. Yeah. And there’s a lot of people that couldn’t necessarily get to their roof. So they’re going to go up into their attic, but the water just kept coming and coming and coming. Um, so it details some of that stuff. And I, can you imagine being trapped in the attic, the water rising? And if you’re an older person, you don’t have a chainsaw or any type of a breaker bar, break your way out, your way out. mean, you’re, trapped in the attic. Uh, it’s just, it’s incredible. So I would forget the scandal. Yeah. mean, we’re living in the golden age of television and you’re rewatching something from 10. I’m not opposed. Yeah. Sorry, Lex. I would be remiss. mean, we’re talking about 20 years from, uh, from Katrina, but we are 24 years and I think we’re, people are going to be hearing this the day after nine 11. Um, so I always like to take a moment to talk about that. Where were you for nine 11? You remember? Fifth grade, Mr. Belletta’s social studies class. Yeah. I was a new advisor, fairly new advisor, a few years in the industry, ⁓ at Prudential securities in Allentown, Pennsylvania. And I just, I mean, obviously the whole situation happened. The stock exchange closed down and I remember leaving the office probably at like 11 o’clock, maybe noon and just looking up and it was this clear, gorgeous September day with these big, puffy, Simpsons-like clouds. And it’s something that I don’t think I’ll ever forget that. I mean, there’s lots of things we can talk about, 9-11. But that, for me, is really the one memory that just resonates over and over and over again. I won’t go down a rabbit hole on this, but we don’t get attacked. from external forces all that often. ⁓ it certainly does happen. Sometimes we get attacked by internal forces like, Oklahoma city bombing or something. ⁓ but Osama bin Laden, his stated goal was to, to draw us into an endless war and essentially to bankrupt us. And we’re, we’re, you know, depending on who you talk to, we’re not bankrupt at the moment. ⁓ but the cost of those wars, mean, he definitely, helped run up our debt. Some of the estimates out there up until 2022, the cost of all of that stuff, like the direct war, having men fighting in the desert, the homeland security, the veterans care, interest on the spending. I mean, it’s upwards of $6 trillion. And I just think to myself, what would this country look like? It probably looks similar, but you don’t really know what would be different if that hadn’t have happened. And you could say, well, it would have happened at a later date or some other situation would have happened. But I mean, that really changed the course of history pretty dramatically. And our perceptions of safety, like you said, the homeland doesn’t get attacked, you know? Yeah. Well, that’s all I’m going to say about that today. ⁓ Let’s flip back to economics for a little bit. We were here a few days. before the jobs report came out. last Friday jobs report came out. Not so great. Yeah. 22,000 jobs. We revised June back to negative. So it was a negative month. Um, and then we had right on the back of that, the BLS annual revisions from March of 24 to March of 25, 911,000 jobs that weren’t really there. That sort of just disappeared. You know, we, we did talk about this and you and I debated all the time. So these job numbers that the BLS comes out with are done on a survey basis. But so now they go back in this revision, they’re going back and getting the state, ⁓ tax data to line up with their jobs numbers. And you know, based on that state tax data, how many people, an employee is excuse me, an employer is paying state taxes on. And I think to myself, well, why do we have to go backwards? Why can’t that be a monthly number that they’re getting? have the technology, don’t we? I mean, you can see, I’m telling you, when I was in school, I worked at Staples, I’m talking 1993. And so however many years like 3032 years ago, They could tell you up to the moment on their system in 1993, how much was being sold, what the margin for the day was, what the average sale for the day was. And we can’t tell how many people get jobs. probably have different systems between the states and the federal system. the federal is a survey versus the quote unquote hard data. When you get it from the states on the tax data that I guess feeds through to what determines this revision number. But yeah, I don’t think there’s a good excuse either. think ⁓ there should be a way to link those up in more real time. I mean, you should be able to see by the day how many people are laid off or added. And maybe not today, maybe the week. Shoot, if Staples could do it in 1993 for the store, come on guys. is, this is just, this is silly. ⁓ like the survey thing, I think it’s good to ask the employers, but don’t we want the hard data? Yeah. Don’t the economists, doesn’t the Fed itself want the hard data? They would make much better decisions instead of going backwards and saying, well, you we’re actually going to lower the monthly jobs from a, instead of being 170,000 created, it’s actually only 95,000 a month we were created. that what we lose? were loosely calculating it out and ended up being 75,000 jobs a month were actually not created. Yeah. So in 24, in 2024, was monthly number was 170,000 jobs. remember last year, it was in August, I think the quote unquote some rule indicator was triggered just for one month. And you know how that’s a herald of a potential recession on the horizon previously was a perfect indicator. And if we had known those revisions then we would have been way above the summer. Yeah. So I don’t know, we’ve been operating under this perception that the labor markets, I guess, a little bit tighter than it actually has been. We had the Jolt report come out a couple weeks ago. think it was 7.18 million jobs open versus 7.37 ⁓ jobs were expected to be open in the job openings report. So for the first time in a while, we have more unemployed people then there is job openings. my concern on that is back in 21 and 22, it was essentially there was two open jobs for every one person looking. And so it became a situation where the people, it was essentially an employee’s market demanding higher wages because they could pick between a couple of absolutely right. And that’s where a lot of the wage inflation comes in. I’m not saying we shouldn’t, you know, people shouldn’t be compensated fairly anything like that, but that’s where a lot of the inflation. inflation numbers come from the job quits were high because they’re just job hopping. Everybody was job hopping. Now we’re in this situation where the hopping is I don’t want to say it’s dead, but it is really calmed down pretty dramatically instead of it being two jobs open for every one person looking it’s more like one job open for every person looking but this Joel job open and labor turnover survey is using are they using good data? Yeah, what if it turns out that there’s only a half a job open? for everybody looking. Now the we heard back when there were that huge out number of job openings per person that some of these weren’t real jobs. They’re like teasers out there where they were literally looking for like the optimal person they didn’t need to fill a seat imminently. So like how true is that of a job opening if you’re just waiting for the perfect candidate and you could wait two years to get them sure. ⁓ Maybe that shouldn’t show up. So just keeping but they can filter that job. the requisition open right just indefinitely exactly and counting that when the person they’re not actually looking to hire someone it’s kind of like well if this perfect person falls in my lap yeah we’re hiring them and that’s that’s a little bit concerning because you would think if the Federal Reserve had this type of data real time that maybe they would have maybe they would have lowered a lot they might have kept cutting after yeah I mean so the last cut was December we haven’t seen anything I think with these revisions, you know, and I still say that the Federal Reserve is stuck in a really bad spot because inflation has been ramping up a little bit and we’ll cover wholesale inflation. had some numbers come out this week. ⁓ Inflation is, you know, it’s not at their 2 % target rate. It doesn’t look like it’s going to get there anytime soon. So naturally they’re not in a position where they want to cut, but then you have this job situation where ⁓ they may need to cut. always have to remind myself that the Federal Reserve is okay with the economy having a little bit of pain. Yeah, right. They were okay with it. And rightly so raising interest rates to to cut inflation. I do think they were late to the game on that. And they probably are a little bit late in lowering. And I say a little bit. I mean, I don’t think they’re a year late or anything like that. But they probably could have lowered in July, they probably could have done it a month or two prior to it. But now you have this massive revision. I’m not saying that they have egg on their face, but they might have some egg on their face. We talked about just before the last monthly jobs report, pal said two days prior, how strong it was. Yeah. And then we got this awful jobs report and we’re like, how did he not have insight into that? And I mean, this is just furthering that point. Yeah. Well, the, white house and the certainly the administration, I don’t want to say they’re going to have a field day with it, but I mean, they’re already, say, I told you so. Right. Yeah. There’s, there’s no question about it. ⁓ so while we’re talking about jobs, the BLS actually did come out with a report. Now we can make fun of the BLS. I hope this report is accurate. I, seems like it could be more accurate, ⁓ cause it’s not hard data. It’s, it’s more, what the expectation is, but they came out with a report of, ⁓ the, the type of jobs that are going to be in demand. for the next, let’s say five or six years. ⁓ And what the percentage growth of these jobs are. Now, this is a trick question, because I know you know the answer. What’s the number one job growth at a 50 % annualized rate? I’m thinking of it more of in a sectors perspective. I’m looking at tech. Obviously, we’re in the midst of an AI boom. And they’re probably very highly compensated. I don’t know the answer of what your yours actually has. did my own separate research, but tech healthcare, we do have aging ⁓ people and then still you’re going to have skilled labor that can’t be replaced by computers. Yeah. No, no question about it. You’re plumbers, right? You’re HVAC laborers. Yeah. Like me. ⁓ people who, people who replace your windshield, I needed to go into a safe flight to get my windshield fixed recently. You don’t think that could be done with a robot? Definitely could be it is probably done by a robot in the actual shops. Yeah, yeah, no question about it. So the number one job expectation of job growth, and it may be not aggregate, but as a percentage is wind turbine service tech, they’re expecting an annualized growth rate up until 3034 2034 of a 50 % annualized number. So renewable tech. Well, that one. Yeah, that, that is definitely renewable. but the second one and it falls to your, your sector is a photovoltaic installer, like solar installers. I mean, doesn’t that tell us something about where we’re headed? You know, I, I, when COVID happened, ⁓ we talked about, ⁓ change happens slow and then it happens fast. And obviously there’s electric cars out there. and they’re coming online and you’re starting to see them. And yeah, everybody’s like, maybe I’ll get one or maybe I won’t, or maybe I’ll have a half a one, you know, in my, in my garage, not half a car, but you know, some of the car is, but at some point they’re going to drop on us a car that could be charged in three minutes that has 1500 miles of range. And you’re going to be like, hi, how can I beat that? Yeah. Right. So You know, this is an investment advice, but these jobs out there are definitely in the renewables. Uh, now as far as sectors, what else do you think? Healthcare, healthcare, right? Nurse practitioners, uh, annualized rate of 40 % until 34 in terms of job growth. So not so much in doctors, but you need those people that are like a doctor, they can write a prescription. whether it’s a minute clinic or at a doctor’s office. Yeah. And I mean, that’s that’s where the job growth is. Yeah. Now you did another ⁓ you didn’t look at the BLS numbers. But you looked at some numbers based on what would happen and what the change that would occur as the ⁓ robotization and as AI took over some of the jobs. What do you have on yours? So yeah, I looked at post AI revolution. So the results may have been slightly skewed, but it was, I think eight out of 10 were tech jobs and it’s varying levels of data scientists probably combing through the LLM data and prepping it or altering it so that it’s readable and high quality for the system to read and give a reliable output. ⁓ You had software engineers, know, all those types of jobs, but then the other one was healthcare that was represented even in that one. Yeah. I was I saw something the other day where one of the hotel chains and it wasn’t a high end. wasn’t like a Marriott or a Hilton, but it wasn’t a super low, like a super eight or something. It was kind of the mid mid tier hotel chain was experimenting with check-ins where you were talking to a screen. You’re talking to a big iPad and a person in this particular case, they were offshore, but you would go into the motel hotel and you would check in and you’re person wasn’t a person while they were a person that is not in front of you. I mean, that makes sense. I mean, at some of the hotels I’ve been recently, you can check in on your phone and you can opt into using your phone as a key if they have the right, you know, sure stuff there. You bypass checking completely just like with my car, my phone would be my key to get into my room. Yeah. Well think about it at the airport and I don’t think they’re ever going to go to this at the airport. But I mean, nowadays it’s facial recognition that’s going to get you in and out. And I guess at the airport, I’m, I’m great with that. If it saves me a few minutes walking through the TSA line or the someone throw a fit that it’s like, not letting it take my photo. not letting that happen. You’re worried about them taking a photo. already have airport. already have you a million times over. Yeah. Every possible piece of information that you have is out there probably available for sale. I have seen it relatively recently. A lady in front of us was yeah, she wasn’t having it and the she was allowed to opt out of it. I saw someone freak out about it too. And the guy was just like, Okay, go ahead. I they got the full pat down. Now. I was gonna call her a Karen. But I do know some Karens out there and they are getting tired of people calling them Karen. That’s their name. How about the Karen Ballsteeler from the other day, the Phillies. yeah, that was real awkward. I felt bad for that kid. But then the dad’s reaction was really bizarre, too. He was like, Yeah, it was strange. He was scared that she came over and took it back. That was really weird. Come on. You’re an adult at a baseball game. What do you need that ball for? Isn’t now? I have never caught a ball at a game, but I’ve been to some Phillies games where you’re out. you know, in left field and a ball flies. And it’s basically every man for themselves at that point or woman. It’ll hit off at three, four people before someone gets it. But apparently this lady thought because it hit her seat that somehow she was entitled to this ball. Uh, I don’t know if you’ve seen first time in a baseball game. Yeah, that’s exactly what it seems like. I don’t know if her name’s Karen, but she’s definitely a Karen. Uh, did you see the memes that they made of her? I saw a few. where she turns around after taking the ball from the guy and she still slowly starts to morph into a golem. Yeah. Right. ⁓ man. And so I actually heard the guy, cause he’s a Philadelphia native. I heard him speak on one of the news shows and he, he asked for everybody to calm down and not to take it out on her. He specifically said, I don’t want anybody to go into her house and rough her up. my and I thought that seems weird. Are you actually telling us that you do want that to happen? The kid made out anyway though you see he got like a signed bat and got to me. ⁓ whoever hit the homerun I forget this. mean if you’re sitting and I’m not talking about your kid but if you’re at a game and a ball comes to you and there’s a kid next to you and you get it. Are you obliged to give that little kid the ball? I would. I mean it’s a baseball. Unless it’s like Barry bonds is 760 second home run where you’re going to get like 30, you know, some crazy dollar amount for it. Yeah. If it’s a home run ball at a random game or like a fly, even worse, a foul ball. You give that ball away, right? Give it to the kid. I don’t think this lady did herself any good. ⁓ if you haven’t seen it, ⁓ take a look at it. I I felt really bad. earlier this year we took Nolan to his first baseball game. It was just the rank Phillies right in town here. And a ball went foul is going way behind us. But the crazy smell of the ball came right back. I had Livia right next to me. And I said to Lex cover Livia because it’s coming back. And I went to catch it. Elbow to Lex are right in the head getting my left arm over because I had it around Livia. And I went Elbow to right in the didn’t get the ball just crushed my hand and bounced away and I didn’t go run over and demand it hit my hand right. I have a son over here. If you if it comes to you and you get it, it’s yours. If you want to give it to a kid, do it. But you can’t hunt the ball back down and say it touched my seat. Definitely not. But no one says to me right after when I didn’t catch you said, Dad, I thought you were good at football. I’m like, football? What? He’s a you’re killing me two ways over here. Yeah. But back to these jobs. ⁓ You know, one of the things that we saw in the last inflation report was that fruits and veg had gone up by close to 40%. It was like 39%. And you think about it, most of those, I don’t want to say picking, but most of the jobs are labor intensive, depending on what it Agricultural labor intensive jobs. Yeah, actually picking strawberries is very labor intensive. That is going to be robotized at some point in the future. I mean, there is no question about it. I saw over the last two weeks, John Deere, bought a robotic spraying company that uses artificial intelligence to track where it goes. So now, now we can have a whole debate about what we put on our foods. I think that’s a, that that’s worthy of a debate. I don’t know that we’ll have it on this. don’t have the scientific know how to speak eloquently. should get somebody on here to do that. Um, but they, they’re investing a lot of money in technology that will allow farmers. They’re going to buy this thing from John Deere, they’re gonna put it out in their field, it’s gonna do all the work, and there’s not gonna be a single person there except to maybe put fuel in the tractor and maintain it, right, once it does its job. It’ll have photovoltaic wafers on there and solar panels, it’ll just keep right itself. I don’t know about that one. That would require a lot of PV right on the machine. But I mean, anything, I don’t care if it’s driving a bus, driving a plane, ⁓ taxi. mean all of these jobs where you’re basically just especially in the field you have a guy or a gal just driving this tractor back and forth. Why can’t that be done automated? Why can’t that be automated? It’s gonna be. So this company was called Gus, G-U-S-S and apparently they’ve been working testing some of their ⁓ automated sprayers for Which look like cyber trucks. do look like a giant cyber, right? Yeah. Um, so they’ve been tested it for a while and now they’ve actually went in and bought a hundred percent of the company. And you know, Caterpillar is another one that I suspect you’re going to see some of that robotization and artificial intelligence. Uh, years ago, some of the GPS manufacturers were on fire because you started to see them on bulldozers and earth moving equipment. And it was really helpful when you’re building. to know exactly where you are. If you have a large plot, I’m not talking like a little one acre plot, but a large plot, like you need to know where you are. And they can pinpoint that stuff down to the foot with those GPS, ⁓ on, on the tops of the machines. it’s just really kind of crazy. What’s, what’s going on in this world? ⁓ it brings me to, it brings me to something else here. So a lot of times people say, you know, I go, how are you going to get to the city or what are you doing? And I wind up saying, I took an Uber chopper. And they look at me like Uber has choppers. Like, no, I’m just, I’m just kidding. Turns out there’s a company that does that. Well in, in New York city, and obviously we don’t, we don’t live there. We’re closer to Philadelphia, but in New York and in London, there’s a company called blade. They have a spot in midtown that they pick you up by the river. I think it’s 34th street. I’ve never done it. ⁓ turns out Well, so these, this blade will take you to the airports, right? It will take you to JFK or LaCuardia or EWR. And it’s like a seven minute trip. And I think it’s $200 a seat. If you live in the city, actually doesn’t sound like a bad deal, right? And it’s a little extra for luggage, but you can take your luggage with you on the helicopter. Well, it turns out Uber bought blade and now Uber has Uber chopper and you’re going to be able to hit the button for Uber. and get a chopper and not anywhere but like at designated locations. They’re also partnering with the aviation company, Joby, that makes ⁓ electric vertical and takeoff. You want to call them hovercraft. They’re not choppers per se, but they’re going to be doing it where and again, I don’t know if they’re going to have a pilot, but it’s going to be just food, all electric, seven minutes to the airport. And man, I hope it comes to Philadelphia, right? Taking it from the train station to right to the airport. Yeah, shoot. I hope it comes to Redding. I think that’d be phenomenal. I would pay up for it. Joby stock was going wild for a bit there. Yeah. I’m not surprised that there was some takeover interest. Joby Archer. Another Archer is another one. These aviation startups. mean, I don’t know that our future, at least in the next, let’s say, you five years is going to be filled with flying cars. But in 10 or 20, where this battery tech is able to finally get the Jetsons. Yeah, predicted. No, no nuclear cars, just electric batteries. Yeah. Interesting stuff. Interesting stuff. ⁓ How do we want to close up today? Any, any stats out there that we should ⁓ relay? I think just reiterating, you know, We had those inflation numbers out. PPI came in really cool. So you had called into where we’re at with the BLS and the data. You saw that PPI number is like, uh-oh, maybe there is a finger on the data. And that came in really cool. 2.6 versus 3.3 expected year over year. A over a month was negative. Negative 0.1. And it’s, I’m like, Oh boy, that seems. interesting. That could be a good or a bad thing. for the record, it’s not just good that it was low. ⁓ But then CPI came in. Wasn’t hot. It was we’ll call it warm. Yeah, point four versus point three, month over month. And I think the market was mostly happy was mostly up today on that we’re talking on Wednesday. At least when we came in here, it was up a little bit. So I think they’re happy it wasn’t a larger increase based on you know, where we’ve seen trends. beef, ⁓ coffee were a couple of the hotter areas you had already minted fruits they weren’t as much as up as much as they were previously but they were still up and I would say the biggest ⁓ negative component would be gasoline was still coming in later and pulling down the CPI number a little bit I’m loving the gas numbers yeah I’m at well I put premium in this thing so it’s like $3.99 I’m feeling the love man ⁓ I definitely handle. Exactly. Exactly. ⁓ well listen, all of this stuff in the end, I think the, the leading indicator that you can count on of course is the market and stock market as we’re standing here talking today is at all time highs, ⁓ Dow’s at all time highs. Not that that means all that much, but the S and P is, ⁓ mid caps are small caps are a lot of sectors are. And so at least in the short term, doesn’t I mean, there’s there’s lots of reasons to be concerned. But right now, all of the data is pointing to the market moving higher, right? AI boom looks early ending still. Yeah. And we have a couple other pieces. We were joking about this the other day. Think about if that large number several trillions of dollars of foreign investment comes in, that would be a nice boon. Yeah. To keep the economy going. Maybe there’s some wealth effects. Not only do we have trillions of dollars in money markets that could come in if rates go lower upon these rate cuts that we expect. know, wealth effect from stock market at all time highs. And then additionally, maybe we can get some money out of our houses because it’s been locked up there, appreciated homes. ⁓ We’ve talked about that at length, how it’s kind of stalled out and it’s getting a little cooler in the ⁓ existing sales arena. there’s a lot of- Rates are coming down. Yeah, they are coming down. but there’s a lot of money in appreciated houses. I know I refied in 2021 and I’m not going to move anytime soon because of the rate I got, but there’s other people who may be itching to get some money out of their home, maybe do some additions or something like that. Some more money that could maybe come into the system. the average 10 year was close to a seven three at one point, uh, two years ago and we’re at six three today. My, I guess my thought would be when it starts with a five, right? When you get a five handle on a 30 year mortgage, it starts to be tenable and people start thinking about moving again. Yeah. You know, even if you have a lower rate, I mean you have a three and a half and you know, you go to a five, seven, five, it’s a big difference. But if you’ve been waiting and chomping at the bit to move out of your house or to get something bigger, ⁓ not necessarily to move to another state. Most of those people probably did that, but you start getting into that, that mid five range or upper end fives and people will start to move. No question about it. All right. Well, that’s what we’ll end it here today. Everybody. Thank you so much for listening. Comments, questions. ⁓ please send them in to us at market enthusiast at goodlifefa.com for everybody at good life. I’m Noah Brooks and Chris needs don’t bet against America. Anybody see you next time.
Final Thoughts for Investors
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but history shows innovation and adaptability drive wealth creation over time. Today’s rally rests on both strong corporate earnings and shaky labor data, leaving the Fed in a bind. For investors, the lesson is to stay diversified, keep an eye on long-term innovation themes, and remember that—just as Standard Oil’s breakup created value—periods of disruption can open up opportunity. Betting against American markets and ingenuity has never been a winning strategy.
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Disclaimer
The opinions voiced in this podcast are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecast set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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