For all the angst that surrounds the “what kind of landing will we get (soft, hard or none), one of the best leading indicators there is (the stock market), is not signaling a recession. On the contrary, overall, the path of least resistance appears to remain tilted to the upside. Conviction around a September Fed rate cut remains high, and there are some expectations for Chair Powell to shift to a more dovish tone in his address next week. While the market continues to watch for signs of labor-market weakening, there still remains limited signs of tariff-based pressure on inflation (the week’s sharp PPI reading is expected to only marginally feed through to core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure). Despite a couple of disappointments (and a raft of retailer reports next week), the Q2 earnings season has been better than expected. Nevertheless, many companies have moderated guidance on macro headwinds and tariff impacts, and trade headlines remain volatile. And at the same time, concern about possibly resurgent inflation has been cited in consumer surveys.
US equities were higher again this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing just below the record highs they hit earlier in the week. The Russell 2000 logged another strong week; retail-investor favorites and most-shorted names also fared well. Big tech was mostly higher, Treasuries were unchanged to higher at the long end of the curve; the 2/10 spread hit its steepest point since May. The dollar was weaker again this week, declining on the major crosses; DXY (0.3%). Gold was lower, dropping 3.1%. WTI crude settled down 1.7% for the week.
It was relatively quiet on the trade front. As widely expected, the White House announced another 90-day extension of China’s tariff deadline, shifting it to early November. In Friday comments from Air Force One, Trump said that long-promised semiconductor tariffs could be announced in the coming two weeks, suggesting that chip imports could ultimately be subject to a 300% tariff (he made no mention of pharma tariff plans). Followed last weekend’s report that NVDA and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of China sales of certain AI chips in exchange for export licenses. Meanwhile, negotiations continue with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying deals with “substantial” trading partners may be wrapped up by October, though he added India talks have been challenging.
Economic data and Fed rate-cut prospects remained intertwined. July CPI was expected to be the centerpiece of the week; both headline and core measures printed in line with consensus, though takeaways flagged limited but evident tariff impacts to certain categories. In contrast, July PPI came in much hotter than expected, driven largely by services prices (including trade services). However, analysts expect limited pass-through to July core PCE and suggested August payrolls may carry more weight in Fed decision making. The July retail sales report was largely in line in showing a continued consumer impulse, and June’s data was revised higher. August’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey beat expectations, though respondent optimism waned. Preliminary August UMich consumer sentiment dropped for the first time in four months while year-ahead and five-year inflation expectations rose. Both July import and export prices came in above consensus.
With market pricing showing a strong conviction around a 25bp September rate cut, the week’s Fedspeak dealt with the rate path forward and the possibility for an oversized move next month. However, there was little genuinely new and speakers largely stuck to their previous stances. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed could consider a 50bp cut in September, but later walked that back, suggesting a smaller 25bp cut to start followed by some acceleration. SF’s Daly said while she sees lower rates ahead, a 50bp cut in September would send an unwarranted signal of urgency. There was also focus on the race for Trump’s Fed chair appointment next year; while Governor Waller still seems to be a favorite, some private-sector names appear to be in the mix including Jefferies’ David Zervos and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.
Next week will be fairly light in terms of economic releases, seeing NAHB homebuilder sentiment; housing starts, Philly Fed manufacturing, flash PMIs, and existing home sales. As last months FOMC vote was not unanimous, the minutes from July’s FOMC meeting may give us more insight on the distention. The big item on the Fed calendar is Chair Powell’s scheduled address at the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium on Friday.
Fixed Income: – Treasury yields climbed across the curve, IG spreads held tight, muni rates outperformed while curve steepened, and EM corporate spreads continued to compress—all setting the stage for sensitivity to economic data and central bank signals. Munis continue to be a significant underperformer.
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar broadly held steady following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data (producer price index), which tempered market hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Earlier in the week, the dollar had weakened due to growing market expectations of easing Fed policy; however, data shifted the narrative temporarily.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count was unchained this week. There are 539 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Both brent and WTI are down over 10% YTD. This week, the energy complex faced downward pressure across the board:Crude oil weakened sharply, driven by a surge in OPEC+ production and a fragile demand outlook, Natural gas showed a modest retreat, even as power-sector consumption climbed, thanks to ample supply and export capacity.
Metals Complex- This week, gold was under pressure, weighed down by stronger U.S. inflation and diminished rate-cut expectations, marking its first weekly decline in a while. Silver and platinum managed modest gains, possibly owing to continued interest from industrial users and investors. Palladium finished slightly lower, reflecting the industry’s headwinds—especially from the ongoing shift in automotive demand.
Employment Picture:
July Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 8/1/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up 1/10th to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
U3 unemployment rate was fell 0.1% to at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2
percent since May 2024
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.2%.
Average work week was rose slightly to 34.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.12, a 0.3% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 8/9/2025 – In the week ending August 9th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 7/29/2025 – The number of job openings fell 400k at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index– Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index–Released 8/12/2025– The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit–Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 8/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months.
In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 8/1/2025 – Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of $2,199.8 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,036.1 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,058.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 7/31/2025 – Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
1st Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 7/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.
Consumer Confidence– Released 7/29/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
Existing Home Sales –Released 7/23/2025 –Existing-home sales decreased 2.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 million in June 2025.
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 33, 2025
For all the angst that surrounds the “what kind of landing will we get (soft, hard or none), one of the best leading indicators there is (the stock market), is not signaling a recession. On the contrary, overall, the path of least resistance appears to remain tilted to the upside. Conviction around a September Fed rate cut remains high, and there are some expectations for Chair Powell to shift to a more dovish tone in his address next week. While the market continues to watch for signs of labor-market weakening, there still remains limited signs of tariff-based pressure on inflation (the week’s sharp PPI reading is expected to only marginally feed through to core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure). Despite a couple of disappointments (and a raft of retailer reports next week), the Q2 earnings season has been better than expected. Nevertheless, many companies have moderated guidance on macro headwinds and tariff impacts, and trade headlines remain volatile. And at the same time, concern about possibly resurgent inflation has been cited in consumer surveys.
US equities were higher again this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing just below the record highs they hit earlier in the week. The Russell 2000 logged another strong week; retail-investor favorites and most-shorted names also fared well. Big tech was mostly higher, Treasuries were unchanged to higher at the long end of the curve; the 2/10 spread hit its steepest point since May. The dollar was weaker again this week, declining on the major crosses; DXY (0.3%). Gold was lower, dropping 3.1%. WTI crude settled down 1.7% for the week.
It was relatively quiet on the trade front. As widely expected, the White House announced another 90-day extension of China’s tariff deadline, shifting it to early November. In Friday comments from Air Force One, Trump said that long-promised semiconductor tariffs could be announced in the coming two weeks, suggesting that chip imports could ultimately be subject to a 300% tariff (he made no mention of pharma tariff plans). Followed last weekend’s report that NVDA and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of China sales of certain AI chips in exchange for export licenses. Meanwhile, negotiations continue with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying deals with “substantial” trading partners may be wrapped up by October, though he added India talks have been challenging.
Economic data and Fed rate-cut prospects remained intertwined. July CPI was expected to be the centerpiece of the week; both headline and core measures printed in line with consensus, though takeaways flagged limited but evident tariff impacts to certain categories. In contrast, July PPI came in much hotter than expected, driven largely by services prices (including trade services). However, analysts expect limited pass-through to July core PCE and suggested August payrolls may carry more weight in Fed decision making. The July retail sales report was largely in line in showing a continued consumer impulse, and June’s data was revised higher. August’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey beat expectations, though respondent optimism waned. Preliminary August UMich consumer sentiment dropped for the first time in four months while year-ahead and five-year inflation expectations rose. Both July import and export prices came in above consensus.
With market pricing showing a strong conviction around a 25bp September rate cut, the week’s Fedspeak dealt with the rate path forward and the possibility for an oversized move next month. However, there was little genuinely new and speakers largely stuck to their previous stances. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed could consider a 50bp cut in September, but later walked that back, suggesting a smaller 25bp cut to start followed by some acceleration. SF’s Daly said while she sees lower rates ahead, a 50bp cut in September would send an unwarranted signal of urgency. There was also focus on the race for Trump’s Fed chair appointment next year; while Governor Waller still seems to be a favorite, some private-sector names appear to be in the mix including Jefferies’ David Zervos and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.
Next week will be fairly light in terms of economic releases, seeing NAHB homebuilder sentiment; housing starts, Philly Fed manufacturing, flash PMIs, and existing home sales. As last months FOMC vote was not unanimous, the minutes from July’s FOMC meeting may give us more insight on the distention. The big item on the Fed calendar is Chair Powell’s scheduled address at the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium on Friday.
Fixed Income: – Treasury yields climbed across the curve, IG spreads held tight, muni rates outperformed while curve steepened, and EM corporate spreads continued to compress—all setting the stage for sensitivity to economic data and central bank signals. Munis continue to be a significant underperformer.
July FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar broadly held steady following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data (producer price index), which tempered market hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Earlier in the week, the dollar had weakened due to growing market expectations of easing Fed policy; however, data shifted the narrative temporarily.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count was unchained this week. There are 539 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Both brent and WTI are down over 10% YTD. This week, the energy complex faced downward pressure across the board:Crude oil weakened sharply, driven by a surge in OPEC+ production and a fragile demand outlook, Natural gas showed a modest retreat, even as power-sector consumption climbed, thanks to ample supply and export capacity.
Metals Complex- This week, gold was under pressure, weighed down by stronger U.S. inflation and diminished rate-cut expectations, marking its first weekly decline in a while. Silver and platinum managed modest gains, possibly owing to continued interest from industrial users and investors. Palladium finished slightly lower, reflecting the industry’s headwinds—especially from the ongoing shift in automotive demand.
Employment Picture:
July Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 8/1/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up 1/10th to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 8/9/2025 – In the week ending August 9th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/29/2025 – The number of job openings fell 400k at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Retail Sales– Released 8/15/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, seasonally adjusted, was $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from June 2025, and up 3.7 percent from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 5.6 percent from July 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 8/15/25– Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index – Released 8/14/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.6 percent in July, the largest increase since rising 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in July, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.
Consumer Price Index – Released 8/12/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Credit – Released 8/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 8/5/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in June 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $71.7 billion in May (revised) to $60.2 billion in June, as exports decreased less than imports. The goods deficit decreased $11.4 billion in June to $85.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in June to $25.7 billion.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 8/8/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.411 million units in July.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 8/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months.
In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 8/1/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 8/1/2025 – Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of $2,199.8 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,036.1 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,058.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 7/31/2025 – Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
1st Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 7/30/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.
Consumer Confidence– Released 7/29/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2025 – Existing-home sales decreased 2.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 million in June 2025.
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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