The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction in December is not set in stone. “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” he said. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion — far from it.”
US equities were higher for October, with the S&P and Russell 2000 posting sixth straight monthly gains, while Nasdaq posted its seventh. However, gains were again concentrated in larger cap names, as the equal-weight S&P 500 trailed the official index by 320 bp, and ended lower for the month. Upside this month was supported by several developments. De-escalatory U.S.-China trade headlines lifted sentiment, with the Trump-Xi meeting yielding a 10% tariff reduction. AI-driven tech rally also contributed, fueled by new partnerships and deal activity, while Big Tech earnings were mixed but kept the AI growth narrative intact. Fed easing expectations added support as the Fed delivered a widely expected 25 bp cut, though Powell struck a hawkish tone. Offsetting factors included extended government shutdown risks, volatile trade headlines, labor market concerns, cautious consumer spending signals, and signs of crowded/stretched positioning.
Trump-Xi meeting delivered a widely expected trade truce, though most details had been reported earlier and the détente remains fragile. China will postpone rare earth export controls for one year, while the U.S. will cut the fentanyl tariff rate from 20% to 10%, lowering the average tariff on Chinese imports to 45%. The two leaders plan to meet again in April. Analysts said the agreement eases the near-term risk of major tariff hikes but deeper structural tensions between the U.S. and China remain unresolved. Additionally, more advanced Blackwell AI chips were not part of discussions.
A slew of AI- and chip-related deals and partnerships added momentum to the AI growth narrative. Key highlights included Microsoft announcing updated partnership with OpenAI valuing the company at $500B; AMD and OpenAI announcing a multi-year $300B deal; OpenAI unveiling its ChatGPT web browser; Oracle guiding to 35% gross margins on AI infrastructure projects; and Nvidia announcing a $100B investment in OpenAI and citing roughly $500B in Blackwell and Rubin chips backlog through 2026;
As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp at its October meeting and announced it will end quantitative tightening in December. Governor Miran again dissented in favor of a 50 bp cut, while Schmid surprised hawkishly with a dissent for a hold. Powell’s press conference carried a hawkish tone, emphasizing that a December cut is “far from a foregone conclusion” and acknowledging “strongly differing” views among policymakers.Following his remarks, market odds for a 25 bp December cut fell from 90% to 60%.
Government shutdown delayed most employment and inflation data this month, with no resolution in sight heading into November (macro spillover limited so far). Despite disruption, September CPI was released and came in cooler than expected, as easing rent and OER (owners’ equivalent rent) data reinforced the narrative of a shelter-driven disinflation tailwind.
Fixed Income: Rates drifted slightly higher in the belly of the curve while the long end held steady. This pushed most of the benchmarked down for the week. Munis and High yield held up the best but still finished with a slight loss this week.
Foreign Exchange Market – The greenback finished the month higher by 2%, just below 100.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell 2 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 39 from last year. Markets spent most of the week pricing a December output increase and debating further hikes into 2026, adding to surplus worries. Headlines around the resumption of Kurdistan exports reinforced the supply-adds theme.
Metals Complex – From August through October 20th Gold rose $1000 an ounce – 40 trading days – Its been down the last two weeks. A firmer dollar, less conviction on rapid Fed cuts, and ETF outflows hit a market already stretched after record highs—so even modest risk-on headlines were enough to knock gold lower.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Price Index–Released 10/24/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Consumer Credit–Released 10/7/2025 – In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 10/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010. In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)
Consumer Confidence– Released 9/30/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 44, 2025
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction in December is not set in stone. “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” he said. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion — far from it.”
US equities were higher for October, with the S&P and Russell 2000 posting sixth straight monthly gains, while Nasdaq posted its seventh. However, gains were again concentrated in larger cap names, as the equal-weight S&P 500 trailed the official index by 320 bp, and ended lower for the month. Upside this month was supported by several developments. De-escalatory U.S.-China trade headlines lifted sentiment, with the Trump-Xi meeting yielding a 10% tariff reduction. AI-driven tech rally also contributed, fueled by new partnerships and deal activity, while Big Tech earnings were mixed but kept the AI growth narrative intact. Fed easing expectations added support as the Fed delivered a widely expected 25 bp cut, though Powell struck a hawkish tone. Offsetting factors included extended government shutdown risks, volatile trade headlines, labor market concerns, cautious consumer spending signals, and signs of crowded/stretched positioning.
Trump-Xi meeting delivered a widely expected trade truce, though most details had been reported earlier and the détente remains fragile. China will postpone rare earth export controls for one year, while the U.S. will cut the fentanyl tariff rate from 20% to 10%, lowering the average tariff on Chinese imports to 45%. The two leaders plan to meet again in April. Analysts said the agreement eases the near-term risk of major tariff hikes but deeper structural tensions between the U.S. and China remain unresolved. Additionally, more advanced Blackwell AI chips were not part of discussions.
A slew of AI- and chip-related deals and partnerships added momentum to the AI growth narrative. Key highlights included Microsoft announcing updated partnership with OpenAI valuing the company at $500B; AMD and OpenAI announcing a multi-year $300B deal; OpenAI unveiling its ChatGPT web browser; Oracle guiding to 35% gross margins on AI infrastructure projects; and Nvidia announcing a $100B investment in OpenAI and citing roughly $500B in Blackwell and Rubin chips backlog through 2026;
As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp at its October meeting and announced it will end quantitative tightening in December. Governor Miran again dissented in favor of a 50 bp cut, while Schmid surprised hawkishly with a dissent for a hold. Powell’s press conference carried a hawkish tone, emphasizing that a December cut is “far from a foregone conclusion” and acknowledging “strongly differing” views among policymakers.Following his remarks, market odds for a 25 bp December cut fell from 90% to 60%.
Government shutdown delayed most employment and inflation data this month, with no resolution in sight heading into November (macro spillover limited so far). Despite disruption, September CPI was released and came in cooler than expected, as easing rent and OER (owners’ equivalent rent) data reinforced the narrative of a shelter-driven disinflation tailwind.
Fixed Income: Rates drifted slightly higher in the belly of the curve while the long end held steady. This pushed most of the benchmarked down for the week. Munis and High yield held up the best but still finished with a slight loss this week.
September FOMC Statement September Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The greenback finished the month higher by 2%, just below 100.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell 2 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 39 from last year. Markets spent most of the week pricing a December output increase and debating further hikes into 2026, adding to surplus worries. Headlines around the resumption of Kurdistan exports reinforced the supply-adds theme.
Metals Complex – From August through October 20th Gold rose $1000 an ounce – 40 trading days – Its been down the last two weeks. A firmer dollar, less conviction on rapid Fed cuts, and ETF outflows hit a market already stretched after record highs—so even modest risk-on headlines were enough to knock gold lower.
Employment Picture – Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – No Data – Last Month The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/25/2025 No Data– In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/30/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. In August the number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000)
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- Very limited data due to the Gov’t shutdown
Consumer Price Index – Released 10/24/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 10/22/2025 Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and remained flat in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Consumer Credit – Released 10/7/2025 – In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 10/3/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.402 million units in August, down 69k vs the prior month.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 10/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010. In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 10/2/2025 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)
Consumer Confidence– Released 9/30/2025 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.
Personal Income – Released 9/26/2025 – Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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