International equities continued to grind higher, while U.S. stocks drifted modestly lower in a “wait-and-see” environment. Investor attention stayed centered on the same key themes driving markets into year-end and beyond—valuations, the path of interest rates, and the durability of earnings growth—but without a single catalyst strong enough to pull domestic markets decisively in either direction.
Geopolitics and Greenland were the biggest focus this week. After Trump’s increasing threats in recent weeks around Greenland, markets sold off after the president threatened a 10% tariff on eight European countries if they did not support a deal for the US to acquire the Danish territory, while the EU considered €93B in counter-tariffs. However, markets rebounded on TACO trade dynamics after Trump on Wednesday announced a “framework” for a Greenland deal had been reached with NATO, leading him to drop the tariff threat. Late in the week, the focus shifted back to Iran after Trump revived threats to use military force against Iranian leadership amid a crackdown on protests
One of the bigger stories was a weaker U.S. dollar, which helped support relative performance abroad and provided a tailwind to several non-U.S. asset classes. In the commodity space, crude oil bounced late in the week, as weather-related supply disruption headlines and dollar weakness combined to lift energy prices. Treasuries were little changed to a touch firmer. Gold was up 8.4%, hitting a fresh record high, above $4,900/oz and posting its best weekly performance since Mar-20. Silver also jumped 14.5% to a fresh record, above $100/oz. Bitcoin futures were down 6.9%. WTI crude settled up 3.1%, its fifth-straight weekly gain. – Check out natural gas – Up over 70% this short week on the major storm impacting over 200 million people in the US.
Small cap outperformance was also in focus this week. The R2K gave back all of its weekly gains on Friday (and broke a 14 day streak of outperformance, ending the longest streak since 1996), though recent strength has played into the narrative around the broadening-out trade. The rotation has been supported by optimism around the Trump administration’s “run it hot” strategy and the latest data that supported the resilient economy narrative, seen in this week’s initial jobless claims falling to 200K, January S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI a bit ahead of consensus, and final January consumer sentiment marked up to the highest since last August.
A couple Fed narratives were also in focus this week. After this week’s batch of solid economic data, markets are pricing just 41 bp of cuts through year-end, a fresh low. Elsewhere, Trump continues to say he will make a Fed Chair decision soon. Betting markets put Rick Rieder in the lead at 41%, overtaking Kevin Warsh, after a late Friday article discussed his Wall Street credentials and openness to changes at the Fed. In its hearing this week, the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook as justices expressed concern about Fed independence.
Some of the other bearish pieces of the narrative this week included a high bar to earnings, Fed independence concerns and a rate cut recalibration, stretched sentiment and positioning, and spillover from Japanese government bonds, where yields hit multi-decade highs this week. Inflation risks and tariff costs also remain in focus, with Amazon noting it is starting to see tariff costs creep into product prices, while reports this week indicated US consumers are absorbing nearly the entire cost of existing tariffs.
Next two weeks are peak earnings season with big tech the focus next week. Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this week. The January FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday (1/28). Data next week include November durable goods January consumer confidence and December PPI.
Fixed Income – Global rates climbed higher this week. U.S. yields were mixed but pressure came from overseas—especially Japan’s long-end, which saw a sharp jump and contributed to broader global sovereign yield spillover.
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD had its worst week in eight months. It was sentiment, geopolitical noise, and some “sell America” positioning.
Energy Complex- Check out natural gas! Up over 70% this short week on the major storm. Crude oil rose on renewed Iran fears. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 1 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 32 from last year.
Metals Complex – January Gold futures rose 8.5% this week to settle Friday at a new all-time high of $4,976.20. It was the biggest weekly gain ever in dollar terms and since March 2020, during the Covid lockdown market panic, on a percentage basis. Gold has added more than $650 an ounce so far this month—including a record one-day gain of $171.20 on Tuesday— rallying on Trump’s since-rescinded threats to slap additional tariffs on Europe in his quest for Greenland and heightened concern about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Futures for delivery later in the year are already trading above $5,000 an ounce.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 1/22/2026 – In the week ending January 17, initial claims were 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 198,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 201,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2024 when it was 200,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 205,000 to 205,250
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by an average of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 1/7/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Personal Income – Released 1/23/2026 – Personal income increased $30.6 billion in October, followed by an increase of $80.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $12.0 billion (0.1 percent) in October, followed by an increase of $63.7 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $98.6 billion (0.5 percent), followed by an increase of $108.7 billion (0.5 percent). Due to the recent government shutdown, this report for October and November replaces releases originally scheduled for November 26 and December 19, 2025.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/22/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16,089 million units in December, up 308k vs November.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/21/2026 – Construction spending during October 2025 was estimated at an annual rate of $2,175.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the September estimate of $2,164.3 billion. The October figure is 1.0 percent below the October 2024 estimate of $2,197.1 billion. During the first ten months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,825.3 billion, 1.4 percent below the $1,851.4 billion for the same period in 2024.
Philly Fed Index – Released 1/15/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region increased overall, the survey’s indicator for general activity rose and turned positive. The new orders and shipments indexes also moved higher. The employment index declined but continues to suggest overall increases in employment. The price indexes remained well above their long-run averages. Most of the survey’s broad indicators for future activity declined but continued to suggest expectations for overall growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -8.8 in December to 12.6 in January, its highest reading since September
Retail Sales– Released 1/14/2026 – Retail and food services sales for November 2025, were $735.9 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from November 2024. Total sales for the September 2025 through November 2025 period were up 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in December. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care, and education. The indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations were among the major indexes that decreased in December.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 1/14/2026 – Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in all regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South, remained flat in the Midwest and West, and decreased in the Northeast.
Consumer Price Index–Released 1/13/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in December and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent over the month as did the food at home index and the food away from home index. The index for energy rose 0.3 percent in December
New Residential Sales – Released 1/13/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 4, 2026
International equities continued to grind higher, while U.S. stocks drifted modestly lower in a “wait-and-see” environment. Investor attention stayed centered on the same key themes driving markets into year-end and beyond—valuations, the path of interest rates, and the durability of earnings growth—but without a single catalyst strong enough to pull domestic markets decisively in either direction.
Geopolitics and Greenland were the biggest focus this week. After Trump’s increasing threats in recent weeks around Greenland, markets sold off after the president threatened a 10% tariff on eight European countries if they did not support a deal for the US to acquire the Danish territory, while the EU considered €93B in counter-tariffs. However, markets rebounded on TACO trade dynamics after Trump on Wednesday announced a “framework” for a Greenland deal had been reached with NATO, leading him to drop the tariff threat. Late in the week, the focus shifted back to Iran after Trump revived threats to use military force against Iranian leadership amid a crackdown on protests
One of the bigger stories was a weaker U.S. dollar, which helped support relative performance abroad and provided a tailwind to several non-U.S. asset classes. In the commodity space, crude oil bounced late in the week, as weather-related supply disruption headlines and dollar weakness combined to lift energy prices. Treasuries were little changed to a touch firmer. Gold was up 8.4%, hitting a fresh record high, above $4,900/oz and posting its best weekly performance since Mar-20. Silver also jumped 14.5% to a fresh record, above $100/oz. Bitcoin futures were down 6.9%. WTI crude settled up 3.1%, its fifth-straight weekly gain. – Check out natural gas – Up over 70% this short week on the major storm impacting over 200 million people in the US.
Small cap outperformance was also in focus this week. The R2K gave back all of its weekly gains on Friday (and broke a 14 day streak of outperformance, ending the longest streak since 1996), though recent strength has played into the narrative around the broadening-out trade. The rotation has been supported by optimism around the Trump administration’s “run it hot” strategy and the latest data that supported the resilient economy narrative, seen in this week’s initial jobless claims falling to 200K, January S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI a bit ahead of consensus, and final January consumer sentiment marked up to the highest since last August.
A couple Fed narratives were also in focus this week. After this week’s batch of solid economic data, markets are pricing just 41 bp of cuts through year-end, a fresh low. Elsewhere, Trump continues to say he will make a Fed Chair decision soon. Betting markets put Rick Rieder in the lead at 41%, overtaking Kevin Warsh, after a late Friday article discussed his Wall Street credentials and openness to changes at the Fed. In its hearing this week, the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook as justices expressed concern about Fed independence.
Some of the other bearish pieces of the narrative this week included a high bar to earnings, Fed independence concerns and a rate cut recalibration, stretched sentiment and positioning, and spillover from Japanese government bonds, where yields hit multi-decade highs this week. Inflation risks and tariff costs also remain in focus, with Amazon noting it is starting to see tariff costs creep into product prices, while reports this week indicated US consumers are absorbing nearly the entire cost of existing tariffs.
Next two weeks are peak earnings season with big tech the focus next week. Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this week. The January FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday (1/28). Data next week include November durable goods January consumer confidence and December PPI.
Fixed Income – Global rates climbed higher this week. U.S. yields were mixed but pressure came from overseas—especially Japan’s long-end, which saw a sharp jump and contributed to broader global sovereign yield spillover.
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The USD had its worst week in eight months. It was sentiment, geopolitical noise, and some “sell America” positioning.
Energy Complex- Check out natural gas! Up over 70% this short week on the major storm. Crude oil rose on renewed Iran fears. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 1 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 32 from last year.
Metals Complex – January Gold futures rose 8.5% this week to settle Friday at a new all-time high of $4,976.20. It was the biggest weekly gain ever in dollar terms and since March 2020, during the Covid lockdown market panic, on a percentage basis. Gold has added more than $650 an ounce so far this month—including a record one-day gain of $171.20 on Tuesday— rallying on Trump’s since-rescinded threats to slap additional tariffs on Europe in his quest for Greenland and heightened concern about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Futures for delivery later in the year are already trading above $5,000 an ounce.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 1/22/2026 – In the week ending January 17, initial claims were 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 198,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 201,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2024 when it was 200,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 205,000 to 205,250
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by an average of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Personal Income – Released 1/23/2026 – Personal income increased $30.6 billion in October, followed by an increase of $80.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $12.0 billion (0.1 percent) in October, followed by an increase of $63.7 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $98.6 billion (0.5 percent), followed by an increase of $108.7 billion (0.5 percent). Due to the recent government shutdown, this report for October and November replaces releases originally scheduled for November 26 and December 19, 2025.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 1/22/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16,089 million units in December, up 308k vs November.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 1/21/2026 – Construction spending during October 2025 was estimated at an annual rate of $2,175.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the September estimate of $2,164.3 billion. The October figure is 1.0 percent below the October 2024 estimate of $2,197.1 billion. During the first ten months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,825.3 billion, 1.4 percent below the $1,851.4 billion for the same period in 2024.
Philly Fed Index – Released 1/15/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region increased overall, the survey’s indicator for general activity rose and turned positive. The new orders and shipments indexes also moved higher. The employment index declined but continues to suggest overall increases in employment. The price indexes remained well above their long-run averages. Most of the survey’s broad indicators for future activity declined but continued to suggest expectations for overall growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -8.8 in December to 12.6 in January, its highest reading since September
Retail Sales– Released 1/14/2026 – Retail and food services sales for November 2025, were $735.9 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from November 2024. Total sales for the September 2025 through November 2025 period were up 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in December. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care, and education. The indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations were among the major indexes that decreased in December.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 1/14/2026 – Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December 2025. Month-over-month sales increased in all regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South, remained flat in the Midwest and West, and decreased in the Northeast.
Consumer Price Index – Released 1/13/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in December and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent over the month as did the food at home index and the food away from home index. The index for energy rose 0.3 percent in December
New Residential Sales – Released 1/13/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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