US equities were stronger this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both ending at fresh record highs. Big tech was a notable driver; retail-investor favorites were another area of strength. Other outperformers included MedTech, pharma/biotech, oil services, E&Cs, containerboard, building products, homebuilders, auto suppliers, apparel, and REITs. The week’s underperformers included commodity airlines, multis, media, restaurants, hospitals, credit cards, beverages, P&C insurance, chemicals, and semis. Overall, momentum and growth names were relative laggards. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; the 2Y yield rose 4bp while the 30Y dropped 7bp. The dollar was weaker on the major crosses. Gold was slightly weaker, dropping 0.4% (after closing above $3,400 earlier in the week). WTI crude was down 1.3%.
Earnings were a major focus, with Q2 reports coming in from 112 S&P components. The season thus far has generally been exceeding expectations, With 34% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results so far, 80% of S&P 500 companies (that reported) have reported a positive EPS surprise and 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Earnings Growth for Q2 2025, shows the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 6.4%. If 6.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 2024 (5.8%).
Trade headlines were largely focused on dealmaking ahead of Trump’s August 1st deadline. Bilateral deals were announced with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan (though later reporting suggested some disparate views on the deal’s details). There were also additional reports about the EU and US closing in a deal, alongside headlines that the EU has been preparing possible retaliatory steps should no deal be struck before the deadline. On China, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that country’s August 12th deadline will likely be extended when the parties meet in Stockholm next week.
It was fairly uneventful on other macro fronts. A lighter week of economic data saw June core durable-goods orders unexpectedly contract. July flash composite PMI was a bit stronger than consensus, though manufacturing was a drag. June new-home sales were lighter than forecast, as were existing-home sales. July’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index printed at its weakest level since last September. Elsewhere, there was some further dissipation of fears Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell after the president and his team paid a visit to view the central bank’s facility renovation.
Overall, stocks’ path of least resistance remained to the upside this week. The Q2 earnings season continues to come in ahead of expectations. Trade-deal announcements have been contributing to a sense of greater tariff clarity. The week’s economic data, such as it was, did not point to signs of significant stress. Concerns about political pressure on the Fed eased somewhat, and expectations remain that a rate cut may come by September at the latest. There were also several M&A headlines this week, possibly indicating greater corporate confidence.
But at the same time, analysts continue to note that the economy will be weathering a double-digit increase in the effective tariff rate this year; some inflation pressures have already been noted in economic releases and referenced in corporate commentary. Earnings have been solid, but there remains a long way to go, earnings beats are lagging in magnitude, and some management messaging has been leaning more cautious. And valuations remain very elevated as indices keep setting new record highs.
This coming week is a very busy macro week, with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting one of the main events. Despite broad political pressure and hints at possible dissents, market expectations are very firm that rates will remain on hold. Elsewhere, Monday afternoon will see the release of US Treasury financing estimates for the coming quarter. The highlight of the economic calendar will be Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls reading. Wednesday will also see the first read of Q2 GDP, followed on Thursday by June PCE. Also on the schedule will be Dallas Fed manufacturing, consumer confidence, and ISM manufacturing.
Next week is also the peak of the Q2 earnings season, with 164 S&P constituents scheduled to report. Among these are four of the Mag 7 names: MSFT and META post-close Wednesday; AAPL and AMZN post-close Thursday. And of course, August 1st is the deadline from Trump’s tariff letters, so it is possible there could be a flurry of headlines on bilateral deals. Bessent will be meeting Chinese negotiators in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday; he has said while China has a August 12th deadline, but could be extended.
Fixed Income: – Treasury rate moves were small and mixed across the curve; the 10‑year finished near 4.39%, with the 2‑year around 3.92%. Net effect: little change in duration benchmarks week‑over‑week. Investment grade spreads tightened modestly on the week. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate posted a small gain for the week
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count declined 2 last week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Both brent and WTI are near 3‑week lows on soft U.S./China data and supply worries; trade‑deal optimism limited losses.
Metals Complex- Gold eased as the dollar firmed and risk tone improved on trade headlines.
Employment Picture:
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
U3 unemployment rate was fell 0.1% to at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.4%.
Average work week was fell slightly at 34.2 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.08, a 0.2% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 7/24/2025 – In the week ending July 19th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of 4,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
Existing Home Sales –Released 7/23/2025 –Existing-home sales decreased 2.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 million in June 2025.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $720.1 billion, up 0.6% from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from June 2024.
Producer Price Index– Released 7/16/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in June. Final demand prices increased 0.3% June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Consumer Price Index–Released 7/15/2025– The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy (core cpi) rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May and increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June
Consumer Credit–Released 7/5/2025 – In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM®Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer:This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 30, 2025
US equities were stronger this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both ending at fresh record highs. Big tech was a notable driver; retail-investor favorites were another area of strength. Other outperformers included MedTech, pharma/biotech, oil services, E&Cs, containerboard, building products, homebuilders, auto suppliers, apparel, and REITs. The week’s underperformers included commodity airlines, multis, media, restaurants, hospitals, credit cards, beverages, P&C insurance, chemicals, and semis. Overall, momentum and growth names were relative laggards. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; the 2Y yield rose 4bp while the 30Y dropped 7bp. The dollar was weaker on the major crosses. Gold was slightly weaker, dropping 0.4% (after closing above $3,400 earlier in the week). WTI crude was down 1.3%.
Earnings were a major focus, with Q2 reports coming in from 112 S&P components. The season thus far has generally been exceeding expectations, With 34% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results so far, 80% of S&P 500 companies (that reported) have reported a positive EPS surprise and 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Earnings Growth for Q2 2025, shows the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 6.4%. If 6.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q1 2024 (5.8%).
Trade headlines were largely focused on dealmaking ahead of Trump’s August 1st deadline. Bilateral deals were announced with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan (though later reporting suggested some disparate views on the deal’s details). There were also additional reports about the EU and US closing in a deal, alongside headlines that the EU has been preparing possible retaliatory steps should no deal be struck before the deadline. On China, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that country’s August 12th deadline will likely be extended when the parties meet in Stockholm next week.
It was fairly uneventful on other macro fronts. A lighter week of economic data saw June core durable-goods orders unexpectedly contract. July flash composite PMI was a bit stronger than consensus, though manufacturing was a drag. June new-home sales were lighter than forecast, as were existing-home sales. July’s Richmond Fed manufacturing index printed at its weakest level since last September. Elsewhere, there was some further dissipation of fears Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell after the president and his team paid a visit to view the central bank’s facility renovation.
Overall, stocks’ path of least resistance remained to the upside this week. The Q2 earnings season continues to come in ahead of expectations. Trade-deal announcements have been contributing to a sense of greater tariff clarity. The week’s economic data, such as it was, did not point to signs of significant stress. Concerns about political pressure on the Fed eased somewhat, and expectations remain that a rate cut may come by September at the latest. There were also several M&A headlines this week, possibly indicating greater corporate confidence.
But at the same time, analysts continue to note that the economy will be weathering a double-digit increase in the effective tariff rate this year; some inflation pressures have already been noted in economic releases and referenced in corporate commentary. Earnings have been solid, but there remains a long way to go, earnings beats are lagging in magnitude, and some management messaging has been leaning more cautious. And valuations remain very elevated as indices keep setting new record highs.
This coming week is a very busy macro week, with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting one of the main events. Despite broad political pressure and hints at possible dissents, market expectations are very firm that rates will remain on hold. Elsewhere, Monday afternoon will see the release of US Treasury financing estimates for the coming quarter. The highlight of the economic calendar will be Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls reading. Wednesday will also see the first read of Q2 GDP, followed on Thursday by June PCE. Also on the schedule will be Dallas Fed manufacturing, consumer confidence, and ISM manufacturing.
Next week is also the peak of the Q2 earnings season, with 164 S&P constituents scheduled to report. Among these are four of the Mag 7 names: MSFT and META post-close Wednesday; AAPL and AMZN post-close Thursday. And of course, August 1st is the deadline from Trump’s tariff letters, so it is possible there could be a flurry of headlines on bilateral deals. Bessent will be meeting Chinese negotiators in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday; he has said while China has a August 12th deadline, but could be extended.
Fixed Income: – Treasury rate moves were small and mixed across the curve; the 10‑year finished near 4.39%, with the 2‑year around 3.92%. Net effect: little change in duration benchmarks week‑over‑week. Investment grade spreads tightened modestly on the week. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate posted a small gain for the week
June FOMC Statement June Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market:
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count declined 2 last week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 47 from last year. Both brent and WTI are near 3‑week lows on soft U.S./China data and supply worries; trade‑deal optimism limited losses.
Metals Complex- Gold eased as the dollar firmed and risk tone improved on trade headlines.
Employment Picture:
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 7/24/2025 – In the week ending July 19th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of 4,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Durable Goods – Released 7/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion or 9.3 percent to $311.8 billion. This followed a 16.5 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the decrease, $32.6 billion or 22.4 percent to $113.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 7/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates. This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent)* above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 7/23/2025 – Existing-home sales decreased 2.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 million in June 2025.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 7/18/2025 – Housing starts in June showed an annual rate of 1,397,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 866,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $720.1 billion, up 0.6% from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from June 2024.
Producer Price Index – Released 7/16/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in June. Final demand prices increased 0.3% June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 7/16/25- Industrial production (IP) increased 0.3% in June. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1%.
Consumer Price Index – Released 7/15/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy (core cpi) rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent increase in May and increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9 percent in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0 percent over the month. The index for food increased 0.3 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.3 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June
Consumer Credit – Released 7/5/2025 – In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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