Equities were higher again for the holiday-shortened week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both hitting fresh record closes on Friday. Markets saw some rotation out of Q2’s top performers, with momentum factor lagging and value stocks having a good week. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening; 2Y yields jumped sharply on Friday after June’s solid nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar was slightly weaker overall. At Thursday’s stock-market close, gold was up 1.7% for the week. WTI crude was up 2.1%, rebounding a bit after the prior week’s 11.3% drop.
The market remained on alert for trade headlines ahead of the July 9th expiration of the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. One big development was the announcement of a deal with Vietnam for a 20% base tariff but 40% on products considered to be transshipments (to crack down on the country being used as a conduit for China). Analysts commented that the agreed levels were higher than expected, but were more positive on improved trade clarity. There were also more headlines about progress on an EU-US deal while a deal with Japan is seen as a longer shot; areas of disagreement remained with India. At the same time, Trump continued to push back on any further delay, reiterating that countries without a deal could get a letter setting tariff rates; Treasury Secretary Bessent said “recalcitrant” countries could see their rates move back to April reciprocal levels.
The week’s big economic release was June nonfarm payrolls, which beat consensus in contrast to a June drop in ADP private payrolls some analyst previews flagging possible downside risks to the headline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1% from the prior 4.3%, while average hourly earnings growth was cooler than forecast. The ISM manufacturing and services reports were more mixed, with the headlines coming in just a hair light and respondent commentary still leaning cautious. Construction spending ticked lower m/m, largely as expected. June factory orders came in at an 11-year high, though driven largely by nondefense aircraft/transportation orders.
There wasn’t much new in the Fed narrative this week. In his appearance at the ECB’s annual Sintra conference, Chair Powell broadly reiterated his view that policy remains in a good place and the bank has the ability to be patient and see how the tariff backdrop evolves. But at the same time, he stressed all meetings are live (including July) and noted that rates would likely have been lower now but for the uncertain trade-policy impacts. Note that while this played into thoughts about a nearer-term cut, these hopes were broadly undermined by the strong nonfarm payrolls reading (FedWatch July cut odds dropped below 5% from the prior day’s 24% after the release).
Ultimately, the path of least resistance remained to the upside this past week. There seems to be limited anxiety about July 9th developments despite the number of incomplete deals and possibility for a rise in tariff rates. The June nonfarm payrolls report has helped reinforce views of an economy on a solid foundation, though economists are still waiting for tariff impacts to show in the hard data. Some Fed rate cuts are expected to begin in the coming weeks, though consensus continues to forecast September rather than July (and a hold in July is only likely to further amplify White House pressure on Chair Powell).
The market’s major focus this coming week is likely to be the expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on July 9th and the possible release of letters unilaterally setting tariff amounts, though some other bilateral deals may be announced. The coming week will see a very limited economic calendar. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes the June FOMC meeting.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 8 last week. There are 539 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
U3 unemployment rate was fell 0.1% to at 4.1%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
The labor force participation rate was declined slightly at 62.4%.
Average work week was fell slightly at 34.2 hours.
Average hourly earnings rose by $0.08, a 0.2% monthly gain
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 7/3/2025 – In the week ending June 28th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,75050 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM®Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales –Released 6/23/2025 –Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Housing Starts– Released 6/18/2025 – Housing starts in May showed an annual rate of 1,256,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 924,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from May 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/17/25- Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.1 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.9 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.4 percent, a rate that is 2.2 percentage pointsbelow its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index– Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index–Released 6/11/2025– The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit–Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer:This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Weekly Market Update | Week 27, 2025
Equities were higher again for the holiday-shortened week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both hitting fresh record closes on Friday. Markets saw some rotation out of Q2’s top performers, with momentum factor lagging and value stocks having a good week. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening; 2Y yields jumped sharply on Friday after June’s solid nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar was slightly weaker overall. At Thursday’s stock-market close, gold was up 1.7% for the week. WTI crude was up 2.1%, rebounding a bit after the prior week’s 11.3% drop.
The market remained on alert for trade headlines ahead of the July 9th expiration of the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. One big development was the announcement of a deal with Vietnam for a 20% base tariff but 40% on products considered to be transshipments (to crack down on the country being used as a conduit for China). Analysts commented that the agreed levels were higher than expected, but were more positive on improved trade clarity. There were also more headlines about progress on an EU-US deal while a deal with Japan is seen as a longer shot; areas of disagreement remained with India. At the same time, Trump continued to push back on any further delay, reiterating that countries without a deal could get a letter setting tariff rates; Treasury Secretary Bessent said “recalcitrant” countries could see their rates move back to April reciprocal levels.
The week’s big economic release was June nonfarm payrolls, which beat consensus in contrast to a June drop in ADP private payrolls some analyst previews flagging possible downside risks to the headline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1% from the prior 4.3%, while average hourly earnings growth was cooler than forecast. The ISM manufacturing and services reports were more mixed, with the headlines coming in just a hair light and respondent commentary still leaning cautious. Construction spending ticked lower m/m, largely as expected. June factory orders came in at an 11-year high, though driven largely by nondefense aircraft/transportation orders.
There wasn’t much new in the Fed narrative this week. In his appearance at the ECB’s annual Sintra conference, Chair Powell broadly reiterated his view that policy remains in a good place and the bank has the ability to be patient and see how the tariff backdrop evolves. But at the same time, he stressed all meetings are live (including July) and noted that rates would likely have been lower now but for the uncertain trade-policy impacts. Note that while this played into thoughts about a nearer-term cut, these hopes were broadly undermined by the strong nonfarm payrolls reading (FedWatch July cut odds dropped below 5% from the prior day’s 24% after the release).
Ultimately, the path of least resistance remained to the upside this past week. There seems to be limited anxiety about July 9th developments despite the number of incomplete deals and possibility for a rise in tariff rates. The June nonfarm payrolls report has helped reinforce views of an economy on a solid foundation, though economists are still waiting for tariff impacts to show in the hard data. Some Fed rate cuts are expected to begin in the coming weeks, though consensus continues to forecast September rather than July (and a hold in July is only likely to further amplify White House pressure on Chair Powell).
The market’s major focus this coming week is likely to be the expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on July 9th and the possible release of letters unilaterally setting tariff amounts, though some other bilateral deals may be announced. The coming week will see a very limited economic calendar. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes the June FOMC meeting.
Fixed Income:
June FOMC Statement May Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024
Foreign Exchange Market –
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count fell by 8 last week. There are 539 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Metals Complex –
Employment Picture –
June Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 7/3/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 7/3/2025 – In the week ending June 28th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,75050 from the previous week’s unrevised average.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 7/1/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.8 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 7/3/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in May 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $60.3 billion in April (revised) to $71.5 billion in May, as exports decreased more than imports. The goods deficit increased $11.2 billion in May to $97.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in May to $26.0 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 7/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in June after just one month of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.8 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for 11th time in the last 12 months. In June, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the May figure of 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Index returned to expansion territory in June, registering 54.2 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the ‘unchanged’ reading of 50 percent recorded in May. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 7/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the fourth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fifth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 46.4 percent is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.6 percent recorded in May
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 7/1/2025 – Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,13.2 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate. The April figure is 0.5 percent below the April 2024 estimate of $2,163.2 billion. The May figure is 3.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2024 estimate of $2,215.4 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $841.5 billion, 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $859.6 billion for the same period in 2024.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 6/27/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.647 million units in May.
Personal Income – Released 6/72/2025 – Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
3rd Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 6/26/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Durable Goods – Released 6/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $301.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $98.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 6/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released. This is 13.7 percent (±13.1 percent) below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the May 2024 rate of 665,000
Consumer Confidence– Released 6/24/2025 The Consumer confidence index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025. “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May”.
Existing Home Sales – Released 6/23/2025 – Existing-home sales increased 0.8% m/m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.03 million in May 2025. Year-over-year, sales decreases 0.7%. Sales prices increased 1.3% y/y to $422.8k
Housing Starts– Released 6/18/2025 – Housing starts in May showed an annual rate of 1,256,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 924,000.
Retail Sales– Released 6/17/2025 – Retail sales were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from May 2024.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 6/17/25- Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.1 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.9 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.4 percent, a rate that is 2.2 percentage pointsbelow its long-run (1972–2024) average
Producer Price Index – Released 6/12/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices declined in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Consumer Price Index – Released 6/11/2025 – The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Consumer Credit – Released 6/6/2025 – In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.
Securities offered through LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Good Life Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor. Good Life Companies and Good Life Advisors, LLC. are separate entities from LPL Financial.
The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete. Please consider the environment before printing!
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.
Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.
Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.
No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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