Please join Chris Needs and I as we discuss key themes for 2026. We hope to help you navigate what the economy holds in store for us next as we discuss interest rate policy, investment trends, and much more.
On Friday, the S&P 500, S&P400 (midcap) and Russell 2000 small cap all made new all-time highs. Smalls and mids are beating large caps and even tech by a wide margin year-to-date, though its very early. The narrative continued to focus on expectations for the coming fiscal impulse from the OBBBA (both in terms of larger tax refunds and capex support), signs of stability in the labor market, forecasts for healthy corporate earnings, and the lapping of tariff impacts. And despite an extremely busy week of geopolitical developments, the market continued to largely ignore them. For how long, is another question.
Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; yields were down 4-6 bp at the long end. The dollar was stronger, Gold was up 4%, rebounding after a 4.9% decline last week. Silver was up 11.7%, though pulled back from its record Tuesday close above $80/oz. Bitcoin futures were slightly higher, rising 0.2%. WTI crude gained 3.1%, its second consecutive weekly advance, though prices remained below $60/barrel.
There was a lot of evolution regarding Venezuela in the week following the US capture of Nicolas Maduro. Trump asserted the US would run the country in the near term and the US will sell off sanctioned Venezuelan oil at market prices, with the proceeds to help the country’s recovery. Trump also discussed rebuilding the country’s oil industry and scheduled a Friday meeting at the White House with oil executives. Trump also said cooperation between the countries has convinced him to call off a planned second round of attacks.
While that situation remains fluid, there were also several other issues crowding the headlines: Another round of administration comments on possible US control of Greenland; Denmark’s foreign minister will meet Secretary of State Rubio next week. Broadening protests in Iran, to the point where Tehran has shuttered internet access to the country. Trump told Fox News he is considering US military strikes on drug cartels in Mexican territory. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum stressed this would violate her country’s sovereignty, but also pursued closer cooperation. Trump and Colombian President Petro had harsh words for each other following the Venezuela action. However, a phone call between the two seems to have eased tensions, and Trump said Petro would visit the US next month.
Tensions continued to mount between China and Japan, with Beijing proposing export restrictions on rare earths and accusing Tokyo of re-militarizing. On the Ukraine front, Russia on Thursday night launched a massive drone-and-missile assault on Kyiv and other targets, also employing a nuclear-capable, hypersonic Oreshnik missile with a dummy warhead. But note that despite all the geopolitical stimulus, the market’s reaction was notably muted. Some analysts reiterated that the market only tends to respond to geopolitics to the extent they could impact growth and inflation, generally through oil shocks. But the oil-market narrative has been largely focused on the prospects of oil oversupply in 2026.
President Trump this week announced he wants to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, picking up a rallying cry more often heard on the political left as he continues pursuing affordability initiatives ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Analysts noted there are far more questions than answers around this proposal (more details may come when the president speaks at Davos) as well as skepticism it could meaningfully move the needle on home prices. Trump also said he will tell FNMA and FMCC to buy $200B in mortgage bonds in an effort to push mortgage rates down. There was also reporting he will pursue letting Americans tap retirement accounts without penalty for downpayments.
Defense firms were also whipsawed by Trump’s social-media posts. One Wednesday post called out defense firms for spending more money on dividends and buybacks vs plants and equipment, threatening to impose restrictions. He singled out RTX for this in a separate post. But the space more than recovered after a post-close Wednesday note that he believes the US defense budget should be boosted by 50%. Contrary to some expectations, the Supreme Court on Friday did not issue a ruling on the case challenging the president’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Market expectations remain tilted toward a ruling against the administration, but the release of these rulings is not scheduled in advance. The next day the Supreme Court may release decisions is Wednesday the 14th.
In the week’s most anticipated economic release, December nonfarm payrolls rose 50K, below the expectations. October and November were revised lower by a combined 76K jobs. Total jobs for the calendar year 2025 were the lowest since 2003 when excluding negative years. The unemployment rate shifted down to 4.4% from November’s 4.5% and better than forecasts for 4.5%. The report came after a softer ADP private-payrolls reading and a November JOLTS report showing job openings well below consensus. The mixed report (softer jobs, better unemployment rate) seemed to help solidify expectations for the Fed to remain on hold this month.
The Q4 earnings season kicks off next week. Some big money center banks will come premarket Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be busy on the economic front, anchored by December CPI on Tuesday (core prices seen rising 0.3% m/m). The week will also see December PPI, December retail sales and both the January NY and Philly Fed manufacturing reports
It will be a busy week of Fedspeak, with comments from Vice Chairs Jefferson and Bowman; Governors Barr and Miran; and regional presidents Williams, Barkin, Musalem, Paulson, Kashkari, and Bostic. The Fed will also release its latest Beige Book report on Wednesday.
Fixed Income – Bond markets were constructive overall. Core domestic bonds posted gains last week, with yields modestly lower after early pressure. Money market flows surged, indicating a pivot toward liquidity and near‑term protection. Federal Reserve policy remains central to positioning: Markets price a steady policy path with the possibility of 1–2 rate cuts in 2026, but upcoming inflation prints (CPI) are a key focus and could delay easing if inflation surprises higher.
Foreign Exchange Market – U.S. dollar was resilient over the week, modestly supported by positioning into safe assets even as equities rallied.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a gain of 1 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela this weekend will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – In 2025 WTI crude dropped 19.9%, with oil having its worst year since 2020. Crude also dropped during the spring’s tariff concerns but recovered a bit when the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 2 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 40 from last year. Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – Oil prices were volatile but generally higher this week, supported earlier by geopolitical narratives and rebounds in sentiment, though oversupply worries persist.
Metals Complex – Gold, silver, and related metals posted significant weekly gains, supported by geopolitical risk and annual rebalancing flows. They also continue to reflect safe‑haven demand, with some industrial metals also tracking broad economic sentiment.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 1/8/2026 – In the week ending January 3, initial claims were 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by anaverage of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 1/7/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index–Released 12/18/2025– The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
Retail Sales– Released 12/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024. Total sales for the August 2025 through October 2025 period were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000d is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 2, 2026
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Thursday, January 16th, 2026 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM ET
Please join Chris Needs and I as we discuss key themes for 2026. We hope to help you navigate what the economy holds in store for us next as we discuss interest rate policy, investment trends, and much more.
On Friday, the S&P 500, S&P400 (midcap) and Russell 2000 small cap all made new all-time highs. Smalls and mids are beating large caps and even tech by a wide margin year-to-date, though its very early. The narrative continued to focus on expectations for the coming fiscal impulse from the OBBBA (both in terms of larger tax refunds and capex support), signs of stability in the labor market, forecasts for healthy corporate earnings, and the lapping of tariff impacts. And despite an extremely busy week of geopolitical developments, the market continued to largely ignore them. For how long, is another question.
Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; yields were down 4-6 bp at the long end. The dollar was stronger, Gold was up 4%, rebounding after a 4.9% decline last week. Silver was up 11.7%, though pulled back from its record Tuesday close above $80/oz. Bitcoin futures were slightly higher, rising 0.2%. WTI crude gained 3.1%, its second consecutive weekly advance, though prices remained below $60/barrel.
There was a lot of evolution regarding Venezuela in the week following the US capture of Nicolas Maduro. Trump asserted the US would run the country in the near term and the US will sell off sanctioned Venezuelan oil at market prices, with the proceeds to help the country’s recovery. Trump also discussed rebuilding the country’s oil industry and scheduled a Friday meeting at the White House with oil executives. Trump also said cooperation between the countries has convinced him to call off a planned second round of attacks.
While that situation remains fluid, there were also several other issues crowding the headlines: Another round of administration comments on possible US control of Greenland; Denmark’s foreign minister will meet Secretary of State Rubio next week. Broadening protests in Iran, to the point where Tehran has shuttered internet access to the country. Trump told Fox News he is considering US military strikes on drug cartels in Mexican territory. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum stressed this would violate her country’s sovereignty, but also pursued closer cooperation. Trump and Colombian President Petro had harsh words for each other following the Venezuela action. However, a phone call between the two seems to have eased tensions, and Trump said Petro would visit the US next month.
Tensions continued to mount between China and Japan, with Beijing proposing export restrictions on rare earths and accusing Tokyo of re-militarizing. On the Ukraine front, Russia on Thursday night launched a massive drone-and-missile assault on Kyiv and other targets, also employing a nuclear-capable, hypersonic Oreshnik missile with a dummy warhead. But note that despite all the geopolitical stimulus, the market’s reaction was notably muted. Some analysts reiterated that the market only tends to respond to geopolitics to the extent they could impact growth and inflation, generally through oil shocks. But the oil-market narrative has been largely focused on the prospects of oil oversupply in 2026.
President Trump this week announced he wants to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, picking up a rallying cry more often heard on the political left as he continues pursuing affordability initiatives ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Analysts noted there are far more questions than answers around this proposal (more details may come when the president speaks at Davos) as well as skepticism it could meaningfully move the needle on home prices. Trump also said he will tell FNMA and FMCC to buy $200B in mortgage bonds in an effort to push mortgage rates down. There was also reporting he will pursue letting Americans tap retirement accounts without penalty for downpayments.
Defense firms were also whipsawed by Trump’s social-media posts. One Wednesday post called out defense firms for spending more money on dividends and buybacks vs plants and equipment, threatening to impose restrictions. He singled out RTX for this in a separate post. But the space more than recovered after a post-close Wednesday note that he believes the US defense budget should be boosted by 50%. Contrary to some expectations, the Supreme Court on Friday did not issue a ruling on the case challenging the president’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Market expectations remain tilted toward a ruling against the administration, but the release of these rulings is not scheduled in advance. The next day the Supreme Court may release decisions is Wednesday the 14th.
In the week’s most anticipated economic release, December nonfarm payrolls rose 50K, below the expectations. October and November were revised lower by a combined 76K jobs. Total jobs for the calendar year 2025 were the lowest since 2003 when excluding negative years. The unemployment rate shifted down to 4.4% from November’s 4.5% and better than forecasts for 4.5%. The report came after a softer ADP private-payrolls reading and a November JOLTS report showing job openings well below consensus. The mixed report (softer jobs, better unemployment rate) seemed to help solidify expectations for the Fed to remain on hold this month.
The Q4 earnings season kicks off next week. Some big money center banks will come premarket Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be busy on the economic front, anchored by December CPI on Tuesday (core prices seen rising 0.3% m/m). The week will also see December PPI, December retail sales and both the January NY and Philly Fed manufacturing reports
It will be a busy week of Fedspeak, with comments from Vice Chairs Jefferson and Bowman; Governors Barr and Miran; and regional presidents Williams, Barkin, Musalem, Paulson, Kashkari, and Bostic. The Fed will also release its latest Beige Book report on Wednesday.
Fixed Income – Bond markets were constructive overall. Core domestic bonds posted gains last week, with yields modestly lower after early pressure. Money market flows surged, indicating a pivot toward liquidity and near‑term protection. Federal Reserve policy remains central to positioning: Markets price a steady policy path with the possibility of 1–2 rate cuts in 2026, but upcoming inflation prints (CPI) are a key focus and could delay easing if inflation surprises higher.
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – U.S. dollar was resilient over the week, modestly supported by positioning into safe assets even as equities rallied.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a gain of 1 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela this weekend will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – In 2025 WTI crude dropped 19.9%, with oil having its worst year since 2020. Crude also dropped during the spring’s tariff concerns but recovered a bit when the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a loss of 2 this week. There are now 544 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 40 from last year. Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – Oil prices were volatile but generally higher this week, supported earlier by geopolitical narratives and rebounds in sentiment, though oversupply worries persist.
Metals Complex – Gold, silver, and related metals posted significant weekly gains, supported by geopolitical risk and annual rebalancing flows. They also continue to reflect safe‑haven demand, with some industrial metals also tracking broad economic sentiment.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 1/8/2026 – In the week ending January 3, initial claims were 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250.
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by anaverage of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index – Released 12/18/2025 – The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
Retail Sales– Released 12/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024. Total sales for the August 2025 through October 2025 period were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000d is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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