Please join Chris Needs and I as we discuss key themes for 2026. We hope to help you navigate what the economy holds in store for us next as we discuss interest rate policy, investment trends, and much more.
US equities were broadly higher in 2025. Major market indices notched their third straight annual gains; the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell each saw their seventh double-digit rise of the past nine years. There was (again) note of gains concentrated around many of the large-cap tech names, with the equal-weight S&P +9.3% It wasn’t all MAG 7 driving the returns though. Only 2 of the 7 actually performed better than the SPX
Bitcoin futures were down 6.8% for 2025. It was a volatile year for bitcoin futures, which dropped as low as $74,635 amid April’s Liberation-Day market drawdown, hit record highs above $127K in October, then again fell to nearly $80K later in November.
The evolution of AI was front and center this year amid rising corporate adoption, accelerating compute demand, and political prioritization by the White House. A network of corporate alliances were formed (such as the Stargate Project launched in January) as well as a host of strategic investments. Capex on AI projects is estimated to top $400B in 2024, with some analyst estimates at $525-575B for 2026. But the year’s enthusiasm and optimism also brought some significant scrutiny and sparked many comparisons to the dot-com bubble. Questions were raised about the scope of the AI infrastructure buildout, particularly the degree to which it may be funded by debt. A related issue was AI “circularity,” with larger firms making investments in firms so that those firms could become customers. There was also a broad debate about monetization, with AI seen as a definite aid to efficiency with less-clear prospects for future revenue streams.
The Fed kept rates on hold for much of the year, with members acknowledging some labor-market softness and moderating growth, but also voicing some concern about inflation remaining above the 2% target and observing restrictive policy did not seem to be holding back growth. The balance began tangibly shifting in a dovish direction with July’s meeting, which saw two dissents from Fed governors (the first since 1993) pressing for Fed cuts in the face of a weaker job market. The Fed ultimately cut by 25 bp in September, October, and December, though the latter two meetings saw hawkish dissents. The obvious divergence in policymaker opinions was a major topic in the narrative, and analysts see a likelihood for a more dovish trend in 2026, especially with Trump choosing a replacement for Chair Powell (whose term as chair ends in May). At present, the market is pricing in at least one 25 bp cut for 2026, expected to begin in March.
Corporate earnings remained strong in 2025, with FactSet noting forecasts for a 12.1% annual increase for the calendar year, which would be the fifth consecutive year of earnings growth and well ahead of the 10-year average of 8.6%. Earnings for Q1 came in at 13.3% (vs 11.3% expected at the beginning of the quarter), Q2 was at 12.0% (vs 9.2% forecast), and Q3 registered 13.6% (vs 6.8% expected). Big tech companies were a big driver of the overall increase, with NVDA, GOOGL, and AMZN three of the top five contributors to CY25 earnings growth. However, the 493 S&P constituents outside the Magnificent 7 are forecast to ultimately report earnings growth of ~9% for the year.
Fixed Income – Fixed income was up across the board in 2025 with the curve steepening. The 2Y yield dropped 77 bp over the course of 2025 and the 10Y yield fell 40 bp, though the 30Y ultimately remained near the 4.80% level, its yield rising 6 bp over the course of 2025. Investors this year voiced some concern about increased federal spending leading to greater note/bond issuance and sparking “bond vigilantes” into action, though the Treasury continued to maintain guidance about coupon sizes remaining stable for the next several quarters. Markets expect the December jobs report to heavily influence rate expectations and growth sentiment as we start 2026.
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar logged its worst calendar year since 2017, falling (9.5%). Analysts flagged pressures from a volatile trade-war backdrop and Fed rate cuts at a time when many central banks have begun to hold, both of which helped undermine US exceptionalism. While the market has worked through initial trade shocks, forecasts for the dollar in 2026 look for further weakness to come.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a gain of 1 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela this weekend will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – In 2025 WTI crude dropped 19.9%, with oil having its worst year since 2020. Crude also dropped during the spring’s tariff concerns but recovered a bit when the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.
Metals Complex – It was a banner year for metals. Gold ended the year at $4,341/oz, just shy of its record above $4,500 but up 64.4% from 2024’s close. It was gold’s strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver settled up 141.4%, also its best year since 1979; analysts noted some help not only from safe-haven demand but also from the metal’s broad industrial applications (including in electronics). Copper was similarly in demand, rising 40.1% for the year.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 12/31/2025 – In the week ending December 27, initial claims were 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,00
November Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 12/16/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 64k in November after falling the prior month. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index–Released 12/18/2025– The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activity fell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
Retail Sales– Released 12/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024. Total sales for the August 2025 through October 2025 period were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit–Released 12/5/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 1, 2026
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Thursday, January 16th, 2026 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM ET
Please join Chris Needs and I as we discuss key themes for 2026. We hope to help you navigate what the economy holds in store for us next as we discuss interest rate policy, investment trends, and much more.
US equities were broadly higher in 2025. Major market indices notched their third straight annual gains; the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell each saw their seventh double-digit rise of the past nine years. There was (again) note of gains concentrated around many of the large-cap tech names, with the equal-weight S&P +9.3% It wasn’t all MAG 7 driving the returns though. Only 2 of the 7 actually performed better than the SPX
Bitcoin futures were down 6.8% for 2025. It was a volatile year for bitcoin futures, which dropped as low as $74,635 amid April’s Liberation-Day market drawdown, hit record highs above $127K in October, then again fell to nearly $80K later in November.
The evolution of AI was front and center this year amid rising corporate adoption, accelerating compute demand, and political prioritization by the White House. A network of corporate alliances were formed (such as the Stargate Project launched in January) as well as a host of strategic investments. Capex on AI projects is estimated to top $400B in 2024, with some analyst estimates at $525-575B for 2026. But the year’s enthusiasm and optimism also brought some significant scrutiny and sparked many comparisons to the dot-com bubble. Questions were raised about the scope of the AI infrastructure buildout, particularly the degree to which it may be funded by debt. A related issue was AI “circularity,” with larger firms making investments in firms so that those firms could become customers. There was also a broad debate about monetization, with AI seen as a definite aid to efficiency with less-clear prospects for future revenue streams.
The Fed kept rates on hold for much of the year, with members acknowledging some labor-market softness and moderating growth, but also voicing some concern about inflation remaining above the 2% target and observing restrictive policy did not seem to be holding back growth. The balance began tangibly shifting in a dovish direction with July’s meeting, which saw two dissents from Fed governors (the first since 1993) pressing for Fed cuts in the face of a weaker job market. The Fed ultimately cut by 25 bp in September, October, and December, though the latter two meetings saw hawkish dissents. The obvious divergence in policymaker opinions was a major topic in the narrative, and analysts see a likelihood for a more dovish trend in 2026, especially with Trump choosing a replacement for Chair Powell (whose term as chair ends in May). At present, the market is pricing in at least one 25 bp cut for 2026, expected to begin in March.
Corporate earnings remained strong in 2025, with FactSet noting forecasts for a 12.1% annual increase for the calendar year, which would be the fifth consecutive year of earnings growth and well ahead of the 10-year average of 8.6%. Earnings for Q1 came in at 13.3% (vs 11.3% expected at the beginning of the quarter), Q2 was at 12.0% (vs 9.2% forecast), and Q3 registered 13.6% (vs 6.8% expected). Big tech companies were a big driver of the overall increase, with NVDA, GOOGL, and AMZN three of the top five contributors to CY25 earnings growth. However, the 493 S&P constituents outside the Magnificent 7 are forecast to ultimately report earnings growth of ~9% for the year.
Fixed Income – Fixed income was up across the board in 2025 with the curve steepening. The 2Y yield dropped 77 bp over the course of 2025 and the 10Y yield fell 40 bp, though the 30Y ultimately remained near the 4.80% level, its yield rising 6 bp over the course of 2025. Investors this year voiced some concern about increased federal spending leading to greater note/bond issuance and sparking “bond vigilantes” into action, though the Treasury continued to maintain guidance about coupon sizes remaining stable for the next several quarters. Markets expect the December jobs report to heavily influence rate expectations and growth sentiment as we start 2026.
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar logged its worst calendar year since 2017, falling (9.5%). Analysts flagged pressures from a volatile trade-war backdrop and Fed rate cuts at a time when many central banks have begun to hold, both of which helped undermine US exceptionalism. While the market has worked through initial trade shocks, forecasts for the dollar in 2026 look for further weakness to come.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count showed a gain of 1 this week. There are now 546 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year.
Obviously the recent developments in Venezuela this weekend will play a major roll in crude pricing in 2026 – In 2025 WTI crude dropped 19.9%, with oil having its worst year since 2020. Crude also dropped during the spring’s tariff concerns but recovered a bit when the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.
Metals Complex – It was a banner year for metals. Gold ended the year at $4,341/oz, just shy of its record above $4,500 but up 64.4% from 2024’s close. It was gold’s strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver settled up 141.4%, also its best year since 1979; analysts noted some help not only from safe-haven demand but also from the metal’s broad industrial applications (including in electronics). Copper was similarly in demand, rising 40.1% for the year.
Employment Picture – We got the September jobs report but word is we will not get anything for October.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 12/31/2025 – In the week ending December 27, initial claims were 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,00
November Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 12/16/2025 – Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 64k in November after falling the prior month. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 12/9/2025 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.7 million in October. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Consumer Price Index – Released 12/18/2025 – The Consumer Price Index 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activity fell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
Retail Sales– Released 12/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024. Total sales for the August 2025 through October 2025 period were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 12/5/2025 – The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/5/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 12/3/2025 – The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025. In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 11/19/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in August 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.2 billion in July (revised) to $59.6 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $18.1 billion in August to $85.6 billion. The services surplus increased $0.5 billion in August to $26.1 billion.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
Consumer Credit – Released 12/5/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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