Large cap growth and tech helped pull the major indexes lower for the week. Small mid and international were all meaningful higher on the week. Treasury yield are continuing higher putting pressure on fixed income. The dollar Index was up 0.2% on the week. Gold finished up 2.0%. Silver was up 12.2%. Bitcoin futures up 5.5%. WTI crude settled up 0.5%, well off best levels, and back below $60/bbl.
Market ended the week with no clear directional catalyst, though downside risks still top-of-mind. Policy and headline volatility weighed on sentiment as White House affordability push pressured banks and other targeted sectors, Q4 earnings faced a high bar, Fed independence concerns resurfaced, rate-cut expectations for 2026 fell, and geopolitical tensions around Iran remained volatile, all against a backdrop of stretched sentiment and positioning. Offsetting this, the broadening-out trade continued with small caps and cyclicals outperforming, supported by resilient consumer commentary, improving growth sentiment, strong AI capex signals from TSMC, and solid equity inflows.
Fed independence concerns eased somewhat as Powell DOJ probe fallout has been limited thus far. Powell’s forceful pushback, GOP criticism of investigation (including from Senate Banking members), and reports of confusion inside the Trump administration helped stabilize sentiment. Trump also said Wednesday he has no plans to fire Powell, while media reports suggest Treasury Secretary Bessentwarned the White House the probe would be messy for markets (a key Trump focus heading into midterms).
Supreme Court again declined to issue an opinion on the IEEPA tariff cases, extending uncertainty. Expectations still lean toward the court limiting Trump’s broad use of emergency powers with prediction markets put White House odds near one-third. However, JPMorgan noted prolonged delays may marginally favor the administration. Next window for a ruling is likely next week.
White House affordability push and Main St. over Wall St. theme also got some attention. Trump’s call for 10% cap on credit card interest rates (weighed heavily on big banks and credit cards) and homebuilders was the latest group in the crosshairs over share repurchases. Healthcare and power plants also in focus.
December core CPI came in cooler than expected; shelter index rose 0.4% m/m and was the primary driver of inflation for the month as was expected by most analysts; analysts noted no real surprises from the report which was, as expected, noisy amid government shutdown distortions; meanwhile, November PPI was mostly in line on a monthly basis though hotter on annualized basis.
November retail sales were slightly stronger than expected, while control group sales (which feed into GDP) was also in line; jobless claims declined w/w; New York and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes both beat with strong new orders and some dovish takeaways around employment and inflation; December existing home sales beat.
Market pricing in just 48 bp of rate cuts for 2026 late in the week, the lowest level thus far this year, on combination of firmer data and select hawkish Fedspeak.
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated with some shift in focus to Iran (which drove big 5-day rally in oil through Wednesday), where protests against government (and Tehran’s crackdown) continued to heat up. Trump hinted at possible military action (but backed off for now) and threatened countries doing business with Iran with a 25% tariff. US moving assets to the region. Fitch noted Fridaygeopolitical oil risk premium is likely to remain capped due to global market oversupply. Elsewhere, Trump also ramped up pressure on purchasing Greenland with reports indicating Secretary Rubio is set to offer $700B for the acquisition.
Fixed Income – Treasury yields have risen slowly over the last month adding headwinds for fixed income in general. Municipals have been the exception so far.
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. Dollar Index has been holding climbing since mid December, helped by “not-as-weak” U.S. data and a market that’s pushing rate cuts further out. This week’s tone has been that the U.S. labor/economic picture is holding up enough to delay urgency for cuts, so markets are leaning toward a later start (mid-year timing) rather than immediate easing.
Energy Complex- Oil jumped higher early in the week on rising Iran-related tension and “headline risk.” But later, that premium came back out quickly when fears of imminent U.S. action eased — and crude sold off hard on Thursday.
The fundamentals were bearish: U.S. crude inventories jumped- EIA data showed Crude inventories +3.4M barrels to 422.4M That build was a big reason oil struggled to hold higher levels. The market still sees a supply cushion, so geopolitics has to stay hot to sustain a rally.
The Baker Hughes rig count showed a decline of 1 this week. There are now 543 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold ripped to fresh record highs as markets leaned into safe-haven demand tied to Fed-independence concerns (and broader geopolitical uncertainty). Copper had been on a monster tear recently, but this week it rolled over / took profits and hit a one-week low, with traders pointing to China demand concerns and rising inventories as evidence that high prices are suppressing appetite. There’s also a broader narrative out there that copper’ssurge may have been boosted by temporary factors (like pre-tariff stockpiling and disruptions), which could fade.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 1/15/2026 – In the week ending January 10, initial claims were 198,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 205,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 20, 2024 when it was 203,250. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 211,750 to 211,500
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by anaverage of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index– Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 1/7/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Consumer Price Index–Released 1/13/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in December and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent over the month as did the food at home index and the food away from home index. The index for energy rose 0.3 percent in December.
Retail Sales– Released 1/14/2026 – Retail and food services sales for November 2025, were $735.9 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from November 2024. Total sales for the September 2025 through November 2025 period were up 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in December. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care, and education. The indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations were among the major indexes that decreased in December.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/13/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit–Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/26/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/23/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 3, 2026
Large cap growth and tech helped pull the major indexes lower for the week. Small mid and international were all meaningful higher on the week. Treasury yield are continuing higher putting pressure on fixed income. The dollar Index was up 0.2% on the week. Gold finished up 2.0%. Silver was up 12.2%. Bitcoin futures up 5.5%. WTI crude settled up 0.5%, well off best levels, and back below $60/bbl.
Market ended the week with no clear directional catalyst, though downside risks still top-of-mind. Policy and headline volatility weighed on sentiment as White House affordability push pressured banks and other targeted sectors, Q4 earnings faced a high bar, Fed independence concerns resurfaced, rate-cut expectations for 2026 fell, and geopolitical tensions around Iran remained volatile, all against a backdrop of stretched sentiment and positioning. Offsetting this, the broadening-out trade continued with small caps and cyclicals outperforming, supported by resilient consumer commentary, improving growth sentiment, strong AI capex signals from TSMC, and solid equity inflows.
Fed independence concerns eased somewhat as Powell DOJ probe fallout has been limited thus far. Powell’s forceful pushback, GOP criticism of investigation (including from Senate Banking members), and reports of confusion inside the Trump administration helped stabilize sentiment. Trump also said Wednesday he has no plans to fire Powell, while media reports suggest Treasury Secretary Bessentwarned the White House the probe would be messy for markets (a key Trump focus heading into midterms).
Supreme Court again declined to issue an opinion on the IEEPA tariff cases, extending uncertainty. Expectations still lean toward the court limiting Trump’s broad use of emergency powers with prediction markets put White House odds near one-third. However, JPMorgan noted prolonged delays may marginally favor the administration. Next window for a ruling is likely next week.
White House affordability push and Main St. over Wall St. theme also got some attention. Trump’s call for 10% cap on credit card interest rates (weighed heavily on big banks and credit cards) and homebuilders was the latest group in the crosshairs over share repurchases. Healthcare and power plants also in focus.
December core CPI came in cooler than expected; shelter index rose 0.4% m/m and was the primary driver of inflation for the month as was expected by most analysts; analysts noted no real surprises from the report which was, as expected, noisy amid government shutdown distortions; meanwhile, November PPI was mostly in line on a monthly basis though hotter on annualized basis.
November retail sales were slightly stronger than expected, while control group sales (which feed into GDP) was also in line; jobless claims declined w/w; New York and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes both beat with strong new orders and some dovish takeaways around employment and inflation; December existing home sales beat.
Market pricing in just 48 bp of rate cuts for 2026 late in the week, the lowest level thus far this year, on combination of firmer data and select hawkish Fedspeak.
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated with some shift in focus to Iran (which drove big 5-day rally in oil through Wednesday), where protests against government (and Tehran’s crackdown) continued to heat up. Trump hinted at possible military action (but backed off for now) and threatened countries doing business with Iran with a 25% tariff. US moving assets to the region. Fitch noted Fridaygeopolitical oil risk premium is likely to remain capped due to global market oversupply. Elsewhere, Trump also ramped up pressure on purchasing Greenland with reports indicating Secretary Rubio is set to offer $700B for the acquisition.
Fixed Income – Treasury yields have risen slowly over the last month adding headwinds for fixed income in general. Municipals have been the exception so far.
December FOMC Statement December Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. Dollar Index has been holding climbing since mid December, helped by “not-as-weak” U.S. data and a market that’s pushing rate cuts further out. This week’s tone has been that the U.S. labor/economic picture is holding up enough to delay urgency for cuts, so markets are leaning toward a later start (mid-year timing) rather than immediate easing.
Energy Complex- Oil jumped higher early in the week on rising Iran-related tension and “headline risk.” But later, that premium came back out quickly when fears of imminent U.S. action eased — and crude sold off hard on Thursday.
The fundamentals were bearish: U.S. crude inventories jumped- EIA data showed Crude inventories +3.4M barrels to 422.4M That build was a big reason oil struggled to hold higher levels. The market still sees a supply cushion, so geopolitics has to stay hot to sustain a rally.
The Baker Hughes rig count showed a decline of 1 this week. There are now 543 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.
Metals Complex – Gold ripped to fresh record highs as markets leaned into safe-haven demand tied to Fed-independence concerns (and broader geopolitical uncertainty). Copper had been on a monster tear recently, but this week it rolled over / took profits and hit a one-week low, with traders pointing to China demand concerns and rising inventories as evidence that high prices are suppressing appetite. There’s also a broader narrative out there that copper’ssurge may have been boosted by temporary factors (like pre-tariff stockpiling and disruptions), which could fade.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 1/15/2026 – In the week ending January 10, initial claims were 198,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 205,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 20, 2024 when it was 203,250. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 211,750 to 211,500
December Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 1/09/2026 – Both total nonfarm payroll employment +50,000 and the unemployment rate 4.4 percent changed little in December, Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by anaverage of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024. In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000).
Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
Employment Cost Index – Released 12/10/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from June 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the12-month period ending in September 2025. This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 1/7/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Consumer Price Index – Released 1/13/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in December and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.7 percent over the month as did the food at home index and the food away from home index. The index for energy rose 0.3 percent in December.
Retail Sales– Released 1/14/2026 – Retail and food services sales for November 2025, were $735.9 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent from November 2024. Total sales for the September 2025 through November 2025 period were up 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago. Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in December. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care, and education. The indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations were among the major indexes that decreased in December.
New Residential Sales – Released 1/13/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.
Housing Starts– Released 1/9/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000.
Consumer Credit – Released 1/8/2026 – In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 1/8/2026 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased in October 2025. The deficit decreased from $48.1 billion in September (revised) to $29.4 billion in October, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $19.2 billion in October to $59.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.4 billion in October to $29.8 billion
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 1/8/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 1/5/2026 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
1st Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 12/23/25 – Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 12/23/25 This release includes preliminary estimates for both October and November. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024)
Durable Goods – Released 12/23/2025 New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $6.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $307.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $7.2 billion or 6.5 percent to $103.9 billion.
Consumer Confidence– Released 12/23/2025 – US Consumer Confidence Fell Again in December. Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November. This includes an upward revision to November’s reading, as responses collected after the end of the federal government shutdown (which spanned October 1 to November 12) were more positive than those collected during the impasse.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 12/19/2025 – Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn. However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 12/18/25 – Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for current general activityfell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey’s future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 12/26/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.596 million units in November, up 305k vs the prior month.
Personal Income – Released 12/23/2025 – Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7%
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 11/17/2025 – Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,438.0 billion, 1.8 percent below the $1,463.7 billion for the same period in 2024.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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