Stocks closed the week at record highs, again, driven by optimism that the fed will keep cutting and keep the rally going. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were higher for a third-straight week both setting fresh record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 also finished higher for a seventh-straight week, finally making a new all-time high (the S&P 600 has not got there yet). Big tech was mostly higher, treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening; yields were up 2-7 bp. The dollar index was up 0.1%. Gold was up 0.5%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.7%.
A couple of pieces played into this week’s upside, including a focus on positive market trends at the start of a rate cutting cycle. JPMorgan noted the Fed has cut rates with equity markets within 1% of record highs 16 times in history, which has been followed by an average return of nearly 15% over the next year. The new dot plot was more dovish than expected with 75 bp of cuts for this year. Earnings optimism remains a key piece to the upside, with a Bloomberg analysis showing more than 22% of companies providing guidance for Q3 exceeding analyst expectations, the highest reading in a year. The AI secular growth tailwind was also a big piece to this week’s upside, particularly updates around Alphabet’s Nano Banana and the Nvidia/Intel partnership. Data this week were also a net positive and helped dispel some fears around stagflation, including falling jobless claims and continuing claims and a big pullback in prices paid and received on the Philly Fed Index.
Trade takeaways this week were mixed. US and China trade tensions were dampened by a framework for the TikTok deal after talks in Madrid. Trump and Xi also spoke on Friday, with Xi calling for the US to avoid restrictive trade measures, but did not confirm anything on TikTok negotiations. Nvidia was again caught in the middle of the US and China tensions after FT reported Chinese regulators banned the country’s biggest technology companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips. Reports also said China has not purchased any soybeans from the US at the start of the export season for the first time since at least the 1990s, suggesting Beijing may be using agriculture as leverage in trade talks.
Some of the bearish pieces of the narrative included ongoing fears around an AI bubble in the AI-adjacent space. BofA’s Michael Hartnett said this week the tech/AI trade bubble started two years ago, but still has more to go as stocks gains and valuations are still not at historical levels. Extended positioning and sentiment were also seen in BofA’s September Global Fund Manager Survey, whichshowed equity allocations at a seven-month high, despite a record 58% of investors saying global equity markets are overvalued. There were also some hawkish takeaways from the Fed meeting, including Chair Powell calling the 25 bp move a “risk management cut,” and noting there was no widespread support for a 50 bp cut. A potential government shutdown also remains an overhang, with the House passing a stopgap funding bill, but failing in the Senate.
The September FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp, as expected, with one 50 bp dissent from new Governor Miran. Street economists described the policy statement changes as dovish, focusing more on the weakening labor market. The updated SEP showed 75 bp of cuts through year-end (including this week’s 25 bp), up from 50 bp in the June projections, and lowered the projected fed funds rate for 2025 and 2026 by 25 bp, as well. However, Fed Chair Powell’s commentary was seen as hawkish, arguing the 25 bp move was a “risk management” cut, and that there was no broad support for a 50 bp cut this meeting.
August headline retail sales of 0.6% m/m was ahead of expectations for 0.2%, while July was also revised higher. Control group sales were also up 0.74%, better than 0.4% consensus. Initial jobless claims also came in below consensus after last week’s 264K print, which was the highest since 2021.September continuing claims also improved to the lowest level since May. September NAHB builder confidence down one point to 32 and missing estimates for 33, though the expectations index was up two points to 45, the highest since March. August housing starts were decidedly weaker, however, with starts falling 8.5% m/m to the lowest since May, while building permits fell to the slowest pace since May 2020.
Data next week include the Richmond Fed index on Tuesday; August new home sales on Wednesday; Thursday’s August durable goods, final reading of Q2 GDP, and August existing home sales and Friday’s August core PCE.
Fixed Income: Fixed‑income markets saw modest tightening in credit and falling muni yields this week amid steady to slightly higher global sovereign yields — markets are now leaning on upcoming inflation prints and central bank signaling for direction. Assets in money-market funds reached a record $7.7 trillion last week, with more than $60 billion flowing into those funds during the first four days of the month, according to Crane Data, an industry researcher.
Foreign Exchange Market – Even after a mid-week rally, the USD id still down 10% YTD.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 3 this week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year. Crude stayed range-bound with a mild weekly gain despite Friday slippage; U.S. inventories showed a hefty crude draw but a bearish distillate build—while OPEC+ supply normalization and a rising U.S. rig count keep a lid on rallies.
Metals Complex – Gold logged a 5th straight weekly gain, holding near record territory after the Fed’s 25 bp cut.
Employment Picture –
A note about the recent jobs revision.
In the revision released around September 2025, BLS revised downward the number of jobs added during the 12 months ending March 2025. The jobs gained during that period are now estimated to be 911,000 fewer than originally reported. Average monthly job gains for that period dropped substantially. For example, in 2025 the revised average monthly job growth (for some months) is much lower than initially believed. The table below does not reflect the downward revision.
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/18/2025 – In the week ending September 13, initial claims were 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to
264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Price Index–Released 9/11/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.
The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Consumer Credit–Released 9/8/2025 – In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 9/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.069 million units in August, down 342k vs the prior month.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
2nd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 8/28/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion. This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 8/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
Existing Home Sales –Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
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Weekly Market Update | Week 38, 2025
Stocks closed the week at record highs, again, driven by optimism that the fed will keep cutting and keep the rally going. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were higher for a third-straight week both setting fresh record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 also finished higher for a seventh-straight week, finally making a new all-time high (the S&P 600 has not got there yet). Big tech was mostly higher, treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening; yields were up 2-7 bp. The dollar index was up 0.1%. Gold was up 0.5%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.7%.
A couple of pieces played into this week’s upside, including a focus on positive market trends at the start of a rate cutting cycle. JPMorgan noted the Fed has cut rates with equity markets within 1% of record highs 16 times in history, which has been followed by an average return of nearly 15% over the next year. The new dot plot was more dovish than expected with 75 bp of cuts for this year. Earnings optimism remains a key piece to the upside, with a Bloomberg analysis showing more than 22% of companies providing guidance for Q3 exceeding analyst expectations, the highest reading in a year. The AI secular growth tailwind was also a big piece to this week’s upside, particularly updates around Alphabet’s Nano Banana and the Nvidia/Intel partnership. Data this week were also a net positive and helped dispel some fears around stagflation, including falling jobless claims and continuing claims and a big pullback in prices paid and received on the Philly Fed Index.
Trade takeaways this week were mixed. US and China trade tensions were dampened by a framework for the TikTok deal after talks in Madrid. Trump and Xi also spoke on Friday, with Xi calling for the US to avoid restrictive trade measures, but did not confirm anything on TikTok negotiations. Nvidia was again caught in the middle of the US and China tensions after FT reported Chinese regulators banned the country’s biggest technology companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips. Reports also said China has not purchased any soybeans from the US at the start of the export season for the first time since at least the 1990s, suggesting Beijing may be using agriculture as leverage in trade talks.
Some of the bearish pieces of the narrative included ongoing fears around an AI bubble in the AI-adjacent space. BofA’s Michael Hartnett said this week the tech/AI trade bubble started two years ago, but still has more to go as stocks gains and valuations are still not at historical levels. Extended positioning and sentiment were also seen in BofA’s September Global Fund Manager Survey, whichshowed equity allocations at a seven-month high, despite a record 58% of investors saying global equity markets are overvalued. There were also some hawkish takeaways from the Fed meeting, including Chair Powell calling the 25 bp move a “risk management cut,” and noting there was no widespread support for a 50 bp cut. A potential government shutdown also remains an overhang, with the House passing a stopgap funding bill, but failing in the Senate.
The September FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp, as expected, with one 50 bp dissent from new Governor Miran. Street economists described the policy statement changes as dovish, focusing more on the weakening labor market. The updated SEP showed 75 bp of cuts through year-end (including this week’s 25 bp), up from 50 bp in the June projections, and lowered the projected fed funds rate for 2025 and 2026 by 25 bp, as well. However, Fed Chair Powell’s commentary was seen as hawkish, arguing the 25 bp move was a “risk management” cut, and that there was no broad support for a 50 bp cut this meeting.
August headline retail sales of 0.6% m/m was ahead of expectations for 0.2%, while July was also revised higher. Control group sales were also up 0.74%, better than 0.4% consensus. Initial jobless claims also came in below consensus after last week’s 264K print, which was the highest since 2021.September continuing claims also improved to the lowest level since May. September NAHB builder confidence down one point to 32 and missing estimates for 33, though the expectations index was up two points to 45, the highest since March. August housing starts were decidedly weaker, however, with starts falling 8.5% m/m to the lowest since May, while building permits fell to the slowest pace since May 2020.
Data next week include the Richmond Fed index on Tuesday; August new home sales on Wednesday; Thursday’s August durable goods, final reading of Q2 GDP, and August existing home sales and Friday’s August core PCE.
Fixed Income: Fixed‑income markets saw modest tightening in credit and falling muni yields this week amid steady to slightly higher global sovereign yields — markets are now leaning on upcoming inflation prints and central bank signaling for direction. Assets in money-market funds reached a record $7.7 trillion last week, with more than $60 billion flowing into those funds during the first four days of the month, according to Crane Data, an industry researcher.
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – Even after a mid-week rally, the USD id still down 10% YTD.
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 3 this week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 46 from last year. Crude stayed range-bound with a mild weekly gain despite Friday slippage; U.S. inventories showed a hefty crude draw but a bearish distillate build—while OPEC+ supply normalization and a rising U.S. rig count keep a lid on rallies.
Metals Complex – Gold logged a 5th straight weekly gain, holding near record territory after the Fed’s 25 bp cut.
Employment Picture –
A note about the recent jobs revision.
In the revision released around September 2025, BLS revised downward the number of jobs added during the 12 months ending March 2025. The jobs gained during that period are now estimated to be 911,000 fewer than originally reported. Average monthly job gains for that period dropped substantially. For example, in 2025 the revised average monthly job growth (for some months) is much lower than initially believed. The table below does not reflect the downward revision.
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/18/2025 – In the week ending September 13, initial claims were 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to
264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.
The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/8/2025 – In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 9/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.069 million units in August, down 342k vs the prior month.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
2nd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 8/28/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
Durable Goods – Released 8/26/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion. This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 8/25/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
Existing Home Sales – Released 8/21/2025 – Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales. Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”
Philly Fed Index – Released 8/21/25 – Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread.
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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