Weekly Market Update | Week 47, 2023

Our new podcast, the Market Enthusiast just dropped. The Thanksgiving Edition: Travel, Shopping and Disinflation, you can find it here  – hope you can listen soon.

Market Update

It was a relatively calm market this Thanksgiving Week.

US equity markets ended the short week in positive territory all the way around. Growth and value both rose just over 1% while large is back to beating small. Fixed income performance was mixed with the US agg falling slightly but investment grade and high-yielding benchmarks were higher on the week. There were two higher-value economic data points and the Fed minutes from the last meeting.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $16.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $279.4 billion. Existing home sales fell to a 13-year low in October. Higher rates and low inventory helped slow sales down. Month-over-month sales fell by 4.1%  and year/y they fell by 14.6% to a seasonally adjusted 3.79 million – the lowest annualized rate since 2010. Sales are still considerably negative but are actually improving throughout the year.    

It was a very quiet week around the Fed. The November FOMC meeting minutes offered no surprises and continued to lean hawkish in its language. The minutes said policy should remain restrictive until inflation moves back toward the 2% target over time, and that further tightening may be appropriate if incoming information indicates progress toward the inflation objective was insufficient.

However, the Street still thinks the Fed is done hiking, pricing in a 0% chance of a hike at the 13-Dec meeting. The year-end 2024 median rate of 4.57% also suggests around 80 bp of cuts next year from the current midpoint, though that is down from the ~100 bp expected following the recent October inflation data given recent soft landing and slower, but positive, economic growth expected next year.

Data next week includes new home sales, personal income and PCE (the Feds preferred inflation gauge), manufacturing ISM, and construction spending. 

Fixed Income

Yield Curve

Nov FOMC Statement   September Fed Minutes     Balance Sheet Reduction Plan       Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet    Federal Reserve Dot Plots 

Treasury.gov yields    FOMC Policy Normalization Statement     Longer- Run Goals Jan 2022

Foreign Exchange Market

Energy Complex 

The Baker Hughes rig count was up 4 this week. There are 622 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 162 from last year.

Metals Complex 

This Week’s Employment Picture 

Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 11/23/2023 – In the week ending November 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000 a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 220k .

October Jobs Report – BLS Summary  – Released 11/3/2023   The US Economy added 150k nonfarm jobs in October and the Unemployment rate was little changed at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents to $34.00.  Hiring highlights include +89k Education and Health Services, +51k Government, and +23k Construction.

  • Average hourly earnings increased 7 cents/0.2% to $34.00.
  • U3 unemployment rate was little changed at 3.9%. U6 unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 7.2%.
  • The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.7%.
  • Average work week decreased 0.1 to 34.3 hours.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS – Released 11/1/2023 – The number of job openings was little changed at 9.6 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.7 million) and discharges (1.5 million) changed little.

Employment Cost Index Released 10/31/2023 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.1% for the 3-month period ending in September 2023. The 12-month period ending in September 2023 saw compensation costs increase by 4.3. The 12-month period ending September 2022 increased 5.0%. Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent over the 12-month September 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.1 percent over the 12-month period ending September 2023 and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2022. This report is published quarterly.

This Week’s Economic Data

Durable GoodsReleased 11/22/2023 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $16.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $279.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.0 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 6.7 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $16.0 billion or 14.8 percent to $92.1 billion.

Existing Home Sales – Released 11/21/2023 – The Existing home slowdown continues with a slight improvement over last month. Existing home sales in October fell 14.6 year over year but that trend is actually improving.

Recent Economic Data

Housing Starts Released 11/17/2023 – October housing starts came in at 1,372,000, 1.9% above the September estimate but is 4.2% below the October 2022 rate. Building permits were 1.1% above the September rate at $1,487,000 but 4.4% below the October 2022 rate.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Released 11/16/2023 – Industrial production decreased 0.6% in October. Much of this decline can be attributed to a 10.0% drop in motor vehicle and parts production that has been affected by strikes within automobile manufacturers. Utilities output decreased 1.6%. Manufacturing decreased 0.7%. Mining increased 0.4%. Capacity utilization decreased to 78.9% in October, 0.8 percent below its long-run average.

Retail Sales Released 11/15/2023 – Headline retail sales decreased 0.1% in October and are up 2.5% above October 2022.

Producer Price Index Released 11/15/2023 – The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.5 percent October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand increased 0.4 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

Consumer Price Index Released 11/14/2023 – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Consumer Credit Released 11/7/2023 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4 percent in the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.

U.S. Trade Balance Released 11/7/2023  The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $61.5 billion in September, up $2.9 billion from $58.7 billion in August. September exports were $261.1 billion, $5.7 billion more than August exports. September imports were $322.7 billion, $8.6 billion more than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 billion to $86.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.2 billion to $24.8 billion.

PMI Non-Manufacturing Index Released 11/3/2023 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the tenth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than September’s reading of 53.6 percent.

U.S. Construction Spending Released 11/1/2023 – Construction spending during September 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,996.5 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,988.3 billion. The September figure is 8.7 percent above the September 2022 estimate of $1,836.9 billion.

PMI Manufacturing Index Released 11/1/2023 – The October Manufacturing PMI registered 46.7 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 49.0 percent recorded in September. Regarding the overall economy, this contraction follows a month of expansion following nine months of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.5 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in September. The Production Index reading of 50.4 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to September’s figure of 52.5 percent.

Chicago PMI Released 10/31/2023 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in October decreasing to 44.0 points down from 44.1 points in September. The reading marked the 14th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region.

Consumer Confidence Released 10/31/2023 – Consumer Confidence decreased for the third consecutive month in October to 102.6, down from 104.3 in September. Expectations fell slightly from 76.4 to 75.6. Expectations for the next six months stayed below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting a decline in confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. More than two-thirds of consumers still said recession is somewhat or very likely in October.

US Light Vehicle Sales Released 10/27/2023 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.732 million units in September.

Personal Income Released 10/27/2023 – Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent).

Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter 2023 GDP Released 10/26/2023 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP advance estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

New Residential Sales Released 10/25/2023 – Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  This is 12.3 percent above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 percent above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was $418,800.  The average sales price was $503,900.  At the end of September, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 435,000, a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.

Next week we get data on New Residential Sales, the 2nd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP, Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Construction Spending.


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Data Sources: 

Conference Board Economic Indicators   Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)   Congressional Budget Office (CBO)     U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)    Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)

CME Fed Watch   U.S. Treasury – Yields   U.S. Census Bureau    Institute for Supply Management (ISM)    Weekly DOL Employment Data    BLS Monthly Jobs Report    JOLTS      All capital in one visualization 2020

US Energy Admn (EIA)   BLS Consumer Price Index CPI      BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW    NY Fed Nowcast GDP     US Census Bureau Housing Starts   U.S. Energy Admn

Consumer Credit  USCB Retail Sales   Construction Spending      Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017   NY Empire Index    Philadelphia Federal Reserve   P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research

Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com  StockCharts.com – Financial Charts    Exponential vs Simple Moving Average

Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo    Hunt Brothers Silver    Asian Contagion   Long-Term Capital bailout