Major US equity indices finished lower this week, but came off worst levels in broadly higher Friday trading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down after three consecutive weekly gains; each saw their worst weekly performance since 1-Aug. Equities took a breather this week after their recent strength (the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq set fresh all-time highs as recently as Monday), with the path of least resistance seeming to shift to the downside.
Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. This week’s Treasury auctions saw tepid-to-weak demand, with foreign demand undershooting recent averages. The dollar was up again this week, faring well on the major crosses (particularly vs the yen); DXY +0.5%. Gold rose 2.8% for the week, making another new all-time high. Oil was higher, with WTI crude up 5.3%, its best week since June, amid rising geopolitical tensions with Russia.
Investors slightly dialed back expectations for two more 25bp Fed rate cuts this year, with some economic data generally arguing against the economic slowdown thesis. August new-home sales came in well ahead of consensus, printing at their best pace since January 2022; existing-home sales were strong as well. August core capital-goods orders expanded vs expectations for a monthly decline. Q2 GDP was revised higher to reflect better consumer spending. And initial jobless claims pulled back again this week, printing at their lowest level since mid-July. Inflation also seemed to remain under control, with August core PCE in line with consensus and July’s result.
There was also some notable divergence in this week’s Fedspeak. While new Governor Miran argued for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach (something Treasury Secretary Bessent also advocated for in a media appearance), other Fed speakers voiced more caution. For instance, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned about front-loading cuts on the presumption tariff inflation will be transitory. Chair Powell’s remarks were not much different than his post-FOMC comments last week. Overall, the breadth of the week’s commentary suggested there may not yet be a critical mass of policymakers pushing for faster easing.
After a relatively quiet period, trade-headline volatility burst back in at week’s end, with Trump announcing via social media a set of sectoral tariffs on imports of patented drugs, heavy trucks, and select furniture products. These moves were announced as national-security initiatives, relying on Section 232 powers rather than the broader executive authorities currently facing legal challenges. There were also headlines about the administration considering plans to pressure semi firms to increase domestic production. And last weekend Trump also announced additional fees for new H-1B visa applications, which analysts noted may have limited impacts on US businesses but could complicate the US-India trade relationship.
On a thematic level, the week also saw some more scrutiny on AI, whose promise has long been a pillar of the bull case. NVDA’s announcement of an investment of up to $100B in OpenAI to fund a datacenter buildout (sparking a 3.9% rally for NVDA on Monday) prompted much discussion about the circular nature of the AI environment-whether the end goal is to prop up demand for its own chips, creating a bubble reminiscent of the dotcom days. A report from Bain & Company cautioned AI compute demand is outstripping semiconductor efficiency and power supplies, and revenues are likely to fall short of needs. And an essay from Harvard Business Review cautioned that “workslop” (low-quality AI output that is confusing or needs to be cleaned up) is pressuring potential productivity gains.
There were also several other items in the week’s headlines that did not have a big market impact, but bear watching. The US federal government appears set for a shutdown, with funding authorization running out after Sep 30th and no signs of agreement on an extension. But while the market has been largely unconcerned, assuming economic damage will be short-lived and quickly recouped, Trump administration appears to be preparing for mass firings (not just furloughs), which could complicate that calculus. There was also a ramp in geopolitical tensions involving Russia given recent incursions into NATO airspace and the alliance possibly preparing to retaliate.
This coming week will be a busy week on the economic front, with the main focus on September employment data: nonfarm payrolls will be out at 8:30am on Friday. Other releases will include August pending-home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing home-price data, JOLTS job openings, and September consumer confidence; ADP private payrolls, ISM manufacturing, and construction spending; jobless claims; and ISM services. Note that a possible government shutdown after 30-Sep could impact this release schedule.
Fixed Income: Treasury yields edged up across the curve with a steepening bias after the Fed cut, credit spreads compressed further into multi‑decade lows amid robust issuance and fund flows, Investment Grade OAS (option adjusted spreads) tightened to 72 bps (multi‑decade low) while high yield OAS settled at 2.76%
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar finished the week firmer—the DXY was on track for its second straight weekly gain (and the biggest in 2 months) as resilient U.S. data trimmed near-term Fed-cut odds. GBP logged its biggest weekly drop since July on UK fiscal/macro worries,
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 7 this week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 38 from last year. Crude notched its biggest weekly gain in 3 months as a surprise U.S. crude draw and Russia’s move to curb fuel exports lifted prices. In U.S. balances, EIA’s weekly report showed refineries at 93% capacity with steady product output.
Metals Complex – Gold logged a 5th straight weekly gain, holding near record territory after the Fed’s 25 bp cut.
Employment Picture –
Employment Picture –
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary–Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
U3 unemployment rate (headline): 4.3% up from 4.2% in July
U-6 (underemployment): 8.1% up from 7.9% in July
Labor force participation rate: 62.3% unchanged m/m
Average work week: 34.2 hour (third straight month)
Average hourly earnings: $36.53 up 0.3% m/m
Weekly Unemployment Claims– Released Thursday 9/25/2025 – In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index– Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 9/22/2025 Existing-home sales remained essentially the same in August 2025, falling 0.2% from July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and West, and fell in the Northeast and South. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Midwest and South, and fell in the Northeast and West.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Consumer Price Index–Released 9/11/2025– The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Producer Price Index– Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Consumer Credit–Released 9/8/2025 – In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 9/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.069 million units in August, down 342k vs the prior month.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
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Weekly Market Update | Week 39, 2025
Major US equity indices finished lower this week, but came off worst levels in broadly higher Friday trading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down after three consecutive weekly gains; each saw their worst weekly performance since 1-Aug. Equities took a breather this week after their recent strength (the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq set fresh all-time highs as recently as Monday), with the path of least resistance seeming to shift to the downside.
Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. This week’s Treasury auctions saw tepid-to-weak demand, with foreign demand undershooting recent averages. The dollar was up again this week, faring well on the major crosses (particularly vs the yen); DXY +0.5%. Gold rose 2.8% for the week, making another new all-time high. Oil was higher, with WTI crude up 5.3%, its best week since June, amid rising geopolitical tensions with Russia.
Investors slightly dialed back expectations for two more 25bp Fed rate cuts this year, with some economic data generally arguing against the economic slowdown thesis. August new-home sales came in well ahead of consensus, printing at their best pace since January 2022; existing-home sales were strong as well. August core capital-goods orders expanded vs expectations for a monthly decline. Q2 GDP was revised higher to reflect better consumer spending. And initial jobless claims pulled back again this week, printing at their lowest level since mid-July. Inflation also seemed to remain under control, with August core PCE in line with consensus and July’s result.
There was also some notable divergence in this week’s Fedspeak. While new Governor Miran argued for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach (something Treasury Secretary Bessent also advocated for in a media appearance), other Fed speakers voiced more caution. For instance, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned about front-loading cuts on the presumption tariff inflation will be transitory. Chair Powell’s remarks were not much different than his post-FOMC comments last week. Overall, the breadth of the week’s commentary suggested there may not yet be a critical mass of policymakers pushing for faster easing.
After a relatively quiet period, trade-headline volatility burst back in at week’s end, with Trump announcing via social media a set of sectoral tariffs on imports of patented drugs, heavy trucks, and select furniture products. These moves were announced as national-security initiatives, relying on Section 232 powers rather than the broader executive authorities currently facing legal challenges. There were also headlines about the administration considering plans to pressure semi firms to increase domestic production. And last weekend Trump also announced additional fees for new H-1B visa applications, which analysts noted may have limited impacts on US businesses but could complicate the US-India trade relationship.
On a thematic level, the week also saw some more scrutiny on AI, whose promise has long been a pillar of the bull case. NVDA’s announcement of an investment of up to $100B in OpenAI to fund a datacenter buildout (sparking a 3.9% rally for NVDA on Monday) prompted much discussion about the circular nature of the AI environment-whether the end goal is to prop up demand for its own chips, creating a bubble reminiscent of the dotcom days. A report from Bain & Company cautioned AI compute demand is outstripping semiconductor efficiency and power supplies, and revenues are likely to fall short of needs. And an essay from Harvard Business Review cautioned that “workslop” (low-quality AI output that is confusing or needs to be cleaned up) is pressuring potential productivity gains.
There were also several other items in the week’s headlines that did not have a big market impact, but bear watching. The US federal government appears set for a shutdown, with funding authorization running out after Sep 30th and no signs of agreement on an extension. But while the market has been largely unconcerned, assuming economic damage will be short-lived and quickly recouped, Trump administration appears to be preparing for mass firings (not just furloughs), which could complicate that calculus. There was also a ramp in geopolitical tensions involving Russia given recent incursions into NATO airspace and the alliance possibly preparing to retaliate.
This coming week will be a busy week on the economic front, with the main focus on September employment data: nonfarm payrolls will be out at 8:30am on Friday. Other releases will include August pending-home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing home-price data, JOLTS job openings, and September consumer confidence; ADP private payrolls, ISM manufacturing, and construction spending; jobless claims; and ISM services. Note that a possible government shutdown after 30-Sep could impact this release schedule.
Fixed Income: Treasury yields edged up across the curve with a steepening bias after the Fed cut, credit spreads compressed further into multi‑decade lows amid robust issuance and fund flows, Investment Grade OAS (option adjusted spreads) tightened to 72 bps (multi‑decade low) while high yield OAS settled at 2.76%
September FOMC Statement July Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar finished the week firmer—the DXY was on track for its second straight weekly gain (and the biggest in 2 months) as resilient U.S. data trimmed near-term Fed-cut odds. GBP logged its biggest weekly drop since July on UK fiscal/macro worries,
Energy Complex- The Baker Hughes rig count rose by 7 this week. There are 542 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 38 from last year. Crude notched its biggest weekly gain in 3 months as a surprise U.S. crude draw and Russia’s move to curb fuel exports lifted prices. In U.S. balances, EIA’s weekly report showed refineries at 93% capacity with steady product output.
Metals Complex – Gold logged a 5th straight weekly gain, holding near record territory after the Fed’s 25 bp cut.
Employment Picture –
Employment Picture –
August Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 9/5/2025 – The U.S. economy added a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August—well below expectations and signaling a marked slowdown in hiring. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level in almost four years. Revising prior months, June saw a rare contraction of 13,000 jobs lost, the first such loss since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, while July’s numbers were slightly revised upward. Overall, total job gains so far in 2025 remain low—just under 600,000—making it the weakest performance outside of pandemic years. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 9/25/2025 – In the week ending September 20, initial claims were 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 240,000 to 240,250.
Employment Cost Index – Released 7/31/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from March 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025. Benefit costs increased 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 9/3/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged
This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source
3rd Estimate of 2nd Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 9/25/2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending
Durable Goods – Released 9/25/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion. This followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $307.5 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $102.0 billion.
New Residential Sales – Released 9/24/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates. This is 20.5 percent (±21.8 percent)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4 percent above the August 2024 rate of 693,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2025 was 490,000. This is 1.4 percent below the July 2025 estimate of 497,000
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 9/22/2025 Existing-home sales remained essentially the same in August 2025, falling 0.2% from July. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and West, and fell in the Northeast and South. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Midwest and South, and fell in the Northeast and West.
Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source
Philly Fed Index – Released 9/18/25 – Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey’s future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels.
Housing Starts– Released 9/17/2025 – Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and is 11.1 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised July figure of 875,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.
Retail Sales– Released 9/16/2025 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025 were up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 9/16/25 – Industrial production ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Consumer Price Index – Released 9/11/2025 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.
Producer Price Index – Released 9/10/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Consumer Credit – Released 9/8/2025 – In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 9/5/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.069 million units in August, down 342k vs the prior month.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 9/4/2025 – The U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased in July 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $59.1 billion in June (revised) to $78.3 billion in July, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $18.2 billion in July to $103.9 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.1 billion in July to $25.6 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 9/4/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months. “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 9/2/2025 – Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, Manufacturing PMI registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 9/2/2025 – Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of $2,200.7 billion. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,232.7 billion, 2.2 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,259.9 billion for the same period in 2024.
Personal Income – Released 8/29/2025 – Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 8/26/2025 – Consumer Confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2, from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025
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Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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