Weekly Market Update | Week 22, 2025


The S&P 500 rose 1.9% last week, closing at 5,911.69, and notched a 6.2% gain in May — its strongest monthly performance since November 2023 — fueled by easing global trade tensions, strong corporate earnings, and improved consumer sentiment.

Key Drivers: Trade De-escalation Boost: The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods cut from 145% to 30%, and China reducing its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The U.S. also reached tariff agreements with the UK, and continues discussions with Japan, South Korea, and India. However, challenges remain — including potential 50% EU tariffs delayed to July 9, and legal uncertainty following a court battle over Trump-era tariffs, currently reinstated by a federal appeals court.

Corporate and Economic Tailwinds: Nvidia’s blowout earnings fueled optimism around AI, offsetting China-related sales pressure. Corporate margins held firm despite tariff pressures. M&A and IPO activity ramped up, and consumer trends stayed resilient across retail, dining, and travel. Soft data improved, with May consumer confidence jumping by the most in four years, and S&P Global Composite PMI rebounding after a 19-month low in April.

Economic Data Highlights: Core PCE inflation met expectations (+0.1% m/m). Q1 GDP revised slightly higher (-0.3% to -0.2%). Jobless claims rose. Fed minutes emphasized caution, signaling patience on rate cuts.

Offsetting Pressures – Yields and Policy Uncertainty: Treasury yields surged this month, with the 10Y topping 4.50% and 30Y above 5.15% — the highest since Oct 2023 — driven by deficit concerns, stalled reconciliation talks, and a more hawkish Fed. Markets now price in fewer than 50bps of cuts for 2025, down from ~85bps earlier this month.

Other Markets: Dollar Index rose 0.3%; Bitcoin fell 3.4%; Gold lost 1.5%; Crude oil declined 1.2% ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where increased production could be approved. Looking Ahead: Markets will focus on the May jobs report, factory orders, and earnings from Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree.

Fixed Income: US yields fell this week pushing bond prices slightly higher

May FOMC Statement   March Minutes   Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet    Federal Reserve Dot Plots  

Treasury.gov yields    FOMC Policy Normalization Statement     Longer- Run Goals Jan 2024

Foreign Exchange Market

Energy Complex –  The Baker Hughes rig count  fell by 3 last week. There are 563 oil and gas rigs operating in the US – Down 37 from last year.

Metals Complex –

Employment Picture 

April Jobs Report –  BLS Summary  Released 5/2/2025  –  The US Economyadded 177k nonfarm jobs in April and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents to $36.06.  Hiring highlights include +51k Healthcare, +8k Social Assistance, +14k Financial Activities, and +29k Transportation and Warehousing.

  • Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents/0.2% to $36.06.
  • U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. U6 unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 7.8%.
  • The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.6%.
  • Average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours.

Weekly Unemployment Claims – Released Thursday 5/29/2025 – In the week ending May 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, a increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, an decrease of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average.

Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2025 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% for the 3-month period ending in March 2025. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefit costs increased 1.2% from 2024. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 saw compensation costs increase by 3.6%. The 12-month period ending March 2024 increased 4.2%. Wages and salaries increased 3.5 percent over the 12-month period ending in March 2025 and increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the 12-month period and increased 3.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. This report is published quarterly.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 4/29/2025 – The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the month the number of hires and total separations was little changed at 5.4 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.

This Week’s Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source

US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 5/30/2025 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.250 million units in April.

Personal Income – Released 5/30/2025 –  Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April.

Second Estimate of 1st Quarter 2025 GDP – Released 5/29/2025 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

Consumer Confidence– Released 5/27/2025  The economic mood has improved markedly after an earlier slump on trade-war fears, the Conference Board’s May survey of consumers showed. The survey’s headline index jumped to 98, up from 85.7 a month earlier, the first increase since November. Analysts had expected the gauge to hold steady from April. The turnaround accelerated after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce bilateral tariffs on May 12, said Stephanie Guichard, an economist at the Conference Board

Durable Goods – Released 5/27/2025 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in April were down following four consecutive monthly increases. New orders decreased $19.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $296.3 billion. This followed a 7.6 percent March increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.5 percent.  Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $20.3 billion or 17.1 percent to $98.8 billion.

Recent Economic Data – Blue Links bring you to data source

New Residential Sales – Released 5/23/2025 – Sales of new single-family houses in April 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 743,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.9 percent above the March 2025 rate of 670,000, and is 3.3 percent above the April 2024 rate of 719,000. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April 2025 was 504,000. This is 0.6 percent below the March 2025 estimate of 507,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in April 2025 was $518,400

Existing Home Sales – Released 5/22/2025 – Existing-home sales slid 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.00 million in April 2025. Year-over-year, sales retreated 2.0%.

Housing Starts– Released 5/16/2025 – March housing starts came in at 1,361,000, this ia 1.6%  above the March rate. Building permits were 4.7% below the March.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/2025 – Industrial production was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 0.3 percent, and the index for utilities rose 3.3 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in April was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average

Retail Sales– Released 5/15/2025 – Headline retail sales, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.

Producer Price Index – Released 5/15/2025 – The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in March and increased 0.2 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

Consumer Price Index  Released 5/13/2025  The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Consumer Credit  Released 5/7/2025 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent.

U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/6/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $123.2 billion in February (revised) to $140.5 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $16.5 billion in March to $163.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.8 billion in March to $23.0 billion

U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/6/2025 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2025 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $123.2 billion in February (revised) to $140.5 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $16.5 billion in March to $163.5 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.8 billion in March to $23.0 billion

PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2025 – Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the 10th consecutive month in April. The Services PMI® registered 51.6 percent, indicating expansion for the 56th time in 59 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 5/1/2025 – The April Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7 percent, 0.3 percent lower compared to March. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 60th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index continued in contraction territory, registering 47.2 percent, 2.0 percentage points higher than the 45.2 percent recorded in March. The April reading of the Production Index (44.0 percent) is 4.3 percentage points lower than March’s figure of 48.3 percent.

U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/1/2025 – Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, down 0.5 percent from the February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of $2,135.8 billion.

Chicago PMI – Released 4/30/2025 – Chicago PMI remained in contraction territory in April and fell to 44.6 from 47.6 points in March. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 17th successive month in April.

This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any stock, bond, currency or CFD contract.

Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by us; its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Our commentary is based on information considered to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and should not be relied upon as such.

The views expressed represent the opinions and beliefs at the time of this commentary and are not meant as a market forecast. These views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions and Good Life Advisors disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information may not be relied on as advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any portfolio. Portfolio investments may change at any time.

Economic and performance information referenced is historical and past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns we may achieve, and should not be relied upon.

No investment strategy or risk management process can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Stock and Bond prices can decline significantly in response to adverse market conditions, company-specific events, and other domestic and international political and economic developments. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.

While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Data Sources: 

Conference Board Economic Indicators   Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)   Congressional Budget Office (CBO)     U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)    Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)

CME Fed Watch   U.S. Treasury – Yields   U.S. Census Bureau    Institute for Supply Management (ISM)    Weekly DOL Employment Data    BLS Monthly Jobs Report    JOLTS      All capital in one visualization 2020

US Energy Admn (EIA)   BLS Consumer Price Index CPI      BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW    NY Fed Nowcast GDP     US Census Bureau Housing Starts   U.S. Energy Admn

Consumer Credit  USCB Retail Sales   Construction Spending      Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017   NY Empire Index    Philadelphia Federal Reserve   P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research

Technical Analysis Info: Koyfin.com  StockCharts.com – Financial Charts    Exponential vs Simple Moving Average

Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo    Hunt Brothers Silver    Asian Contagion   Long-Term Capital bailout