The S&P 500 notched it’s first close above 7500 ever on Thursday, now up 8.7% for the year.
Energy was the best-performing sector alongside strengthening crude. Other outperformers included networking/communications, managed care, hospitals, pharma, commodity/ag chemicals, P&C insurance, exchanges, and road/rail; retail-investor favorites also had a strong week (and remains one of the top-performing groups YTD).
Big tech was mixed, with NVDA +4.7% and AMZN +3.1% outperforming. Semis/memory space pared recent strength in risk-off Friday trading with some discussion about profit-taking; software also saw a mixed week. Retail/apparel saw broad weakness against the backdrop of the debate about consumer struggles. Other laggards included homebuilders (rates), building products, airlines, paper/packaging, machinery, A&D, PE, credit cards, regional banks, and China tech; most-shorted names and small-caps struggled as well.
Treasuries weakened notably across the curve, with the 30-year yield moving well above 5% and near its highest since October 2023. Wednesday’s $25B sale of 30-year bonds saw a coupon above 5% for the first time since 2007. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses, with DXY +1.4% logging its strongest week in two months. Gold was down 3.6%; silver dropped 2.4% for the week. Bitcoin futures were down 1.4%. WTI crude rose 10.5%, settling back above $100/barrel .
It was an up-and-down week, with the S&P setting fresh record highs on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday on narrow breadth but seeing a more risk-off tone on Tuesday and Friday. There were multiple, intertwined themes at play, especially the continued tailwinds from the AI compute demand/capex theme. This was helped by a strong earnings report from Cisco.
But caution around the move continued to simmer. Multiple analysts flagged the impact of forced/mechanical buying while BofA observed SOX (%) is farther above its 200-day moving average than during the dotcom boom (though EvercoreISI noted S&P P/Es remain below 1999 levels). The debate goes on ahead of NVDA’s Q1 earnings report next Wednesday afternoon.
The consumer discretionary space remained under some pressure with ongoing concerns about ongoing high energy prices and the potential to crowd out consumer spending; also notes about higher inflation resulting in negative real wage growth. But also commentary about K-shaped impacts and notes that higher-income consumers spend proportionally less on energy.
At the same time, a lot of uncertainty about Iran/Hormuz. Situation has remained largely in its status quo despite ongoing confrontational language from both sides. There were reports this week the US could consider strikes under a new “Operation Sledgehammer” to force Iran back to the table while also headlines the Iranian military may not be as degraded as thought. But also some increased traffic through the strait as countries strike bilateral deals with Iran.
Even though expectations were limited, the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing seemed to underwhelm. There was no major breakthrough on trade, and at best the meeting may have set the table for further talks. Xi warned Trump on the risk of misunderstandings regarding Taiwan; while on Iran, China concurred that Hormuz should be reopened and Tehran should not have nuclear weapons, but China will likely bring no additional pressure.
A key focus this week was above-consensus core readings for both April CPI and PPI. While these sparked more discussion about bleed-through from energy prices and ultimate impacts on consumer spending, analysts flagged some distortions (such as an expected boost in shelter prices related to re-sampling after the government shutdown) and noted weighting differences mean flow-through to core PCE may not be as stark.April retail sales came in largely in line for the headline and control group, decelerating from March’s strong pace.
Other releases this week included a largely flat NFIB small-business optimism report, noting continued concerns about inflationary pressures. April import/export prices both topped consensus. May’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey printed at a four-year high against expectations for a pullback. April industrial production and capacity utilization both improved.
Fixed Income – The CPI and especially the +1.4% PPI print reinforced concerns that inflation may be reaccelerating rather than continuing toward the Fed’s 2% target. Fixed income markets sold off this week as hotter inflation data, surging oil prices, and a stronger dollar reinforced the “higher-for-longer” Fed narrative. Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed as investors demanded greater compensation for inflation and duration risk, resulting in a bearish steepening of the yield curve.
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar strengthened as hotter inflation data and rising Treasury yields reinforced the “higher-for-longer” Fed narrative, widening U.S. rate differentials and attracting global capital flows into dollar assets.
Energy Complex. While gold got hit by higher real yields and a stronger dollar, oil rallied because the market became laser-focused on physical supply risk — around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormus. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 3 this week. There are now 551 active rigs in the U.S. currently, down 25 y/y.
Metals Complex – Gold traded less like an inflation hedge this week and more like a duration-sensitive asset reacting to rising real yields and a stronger dollar.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 4/2/2026 – In the week ending May 9, initial claims were 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
Employment Cost Index– Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover SurveyJOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent. At 102.5 percent
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, were up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent from April 2025. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index–Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 3.8% in April from year-ago levels after increasing 3.3% in March. Year-over-year core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) rose 2.8%, outpacing the March rate of 2.6%. Overall inflation rose 0.6% month over month after rising 0.9% in March. Core inflation rose 0.4%, matching the March increase.
Existing Home Sales –Realtors SummaryReleased 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit–Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance– Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.
GDP, 1st Q, 1st Est. – Released 4/30/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.328 million units in March. Sales have rebounded since the extreme cold and snow slowed down buyers.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent).
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $198.6 billion in March.
Durable Goods – Released 4/29/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $318.9 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February decrease.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 4/29/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/28/2026 – .Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/27/2026 – The purchasing managers index for manufacturing was flat in April, coming is at 52.7, same as March.
Philly Fed Index – Released 4/19/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The surveex for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
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Week 20 Talking Points – All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 notched it’s first close above 7500 ever on Thursday, now up 8.7% for the year.
Energy was the best-performing sector alongside strengthening crude. Other outperformers included networking/communications, managed care, hospitals, pharma, commodity/ag chemicals, P&C insurance, exchanges, and road/rail; retail-investor favorites also had a strong week (and remains one of the top-performing groups YTD).
Big tech was mixed, with NVDA +4.7% and AMZN +3.1% outperforming. Semis/memory space pared recent strength in risk-off Friday trading with some discussion about profit-taking; software also saw a mixed week. Retail/apparel saw broad weakness against the backdrop of the debate about consumer struggles. Other laggards included homebuilders (rates), building products, airlines, paper/packaging, machinery, A&D, PE, credit cards, regional banks, and China tech; most-shorted names and small-caps struggled as well.
Treasuries weakened notably across the curve, with the 30-year yield moving well above 5% and near its highest since October 2023. Wednesday’s $25B sale of 30-year bonds saw a coupon above 5% for the first time since 2007. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses, with DXY +1.4% logging its strongest week in two months. Gold was down 3.6%; silver dropped 2.4% for the week. Bitcoin futures were down 1.4%. WTI crude rose 10.5%, settling back above $100/barrel .
It was an up-and-down week, with the S&P setting fresh record highs on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday on narrow breadth but seeing a more risk-off tone on Tuesday and Friday. There were multiple, intertwined themes at play, especially the continued tailwinds from the AI compute demand/capex theme. This was helped by a strong earnings report from Cisco.
But caution around the move continued to simmer. Multiple analysts flagged the impact of forced/mechanical buying while BofA observed SOX (%) is farther above its 200-day moving average than during the dotcom boom (though EvercoreISI noted S&P P/Es remain below 1999 levels). The debate goes on ahead of NVDA’s Q1 earnings report next Wednesday afternoon.
The consumer discretionary space remained under some pressure with ongoing concerns about ongoing high energy prices and the potential to crowd out consumer spending; also notes about higher inflation resulting in negative real wage growth. But also commentary about K-shaped impacts and notes that higher-income consumers spend proportionally less on energy.
At the same time, a lot of uncertainty about Iran/Hormuz. Situation has remained largely in its status quo despite ongoing confrontational language from both sides. There were reports this week the US could consider strikes under a new “Operation Sledgehammer” to force Iran back to the table while also headlines the Iranian military may not be as degraded as thought. But also some increased traffic through the strait as countries strike bilateral deals with Iran.
Even though expectations were limited, the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing seemed to underwhelm. There was no major breakthrough on trade, and at best the meeting may have set the table for further talks. Xi warned Trump on the risk of misunderstandings regarding Taiwan; while on Iran, China concurred that Hormuz should be reopened and Tehran should not have nuclear weapons, but China will likely bring no additional pressure.
A key focus this week was above-consensus core readings for both April CPI and PPI. While these sparked more discussion about bleed-through from energy prices and ultimate impacts on consumer spending, analysts flagged some distortions (such as an expected boost in shelter prices related to re-sampling after the government shutdown) and noted weighting differences mean flow-through to core PCE may not be as stark.April retail sales came in largely in line for the headline and control group, decelerating from March’s strong pace.
Other releases this week included a largely flat NFIB small-business optimism report, noting continued concerns about inflationary pressures. April import/export prices both topped consensus. May’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey printed at a four-year high against expectations for a pullback. April industrial production and capacity utilization both improved.
Fixed Income – The CPI and especially the +1.4% PPI print reinforced concerns that inflation may be reaccelerating rather than continuing toward the Fed’s 2% target. Fixed income markets sold off this week as hotter inflation data, surging oil prices, and a stronger dollar reinforced the “higher-for-longer” Fed narrative. Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed as investors demanded greater compensation for inflation and duration risk, resulting in a bearish steepening of the yield curve.
April FOMC Statement March Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The dollar strengthened as hotter inflation data and rising Treasury yields reinforced the “higher-for-longer” Fed narrative, widening U.S. rate differentials and attracting global capital flows into dollar assets.
Energy Complex. While gold got hit by higher real yields and a stronger dollar, oil rallied because the market became laser-focused on physical supply risk — around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormus. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 3 this week. There are now 551 active rigs in the U.S. currently, down 25 y/y.
Metals Complex – Gold traded less like an inflation hedge this week and more like a duration-sensitive asset reacting to rising real yields and a stronger dollar.
Employment Picture –
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 4/2/2026 – In the week ending May 9, initial claims were 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
March Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/8/2026
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 5/15/26 – Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent. At 102.5 percent
Retail Sales – Released 5/14/26 – U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, were up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent from April 2025. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent from the same period a year ago.
Producer Price Index – Released – 5/13/2026 – The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent. Prices for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April.
Consumer Price Index – Released 5/12/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 3.8% in April from year-ago levels after increasing 3.3% in March. Year-over-year core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) rose 2.8%, outpacing the March rate of 2.6%. Overall inflation rose 0.6% month over month after rising 0.9% in March. Core inflation rose 0.4%, matching the March increase.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 5/11/2026 – Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% in April 2026. Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest.
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit – Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.
GDP, 1st Q, 1st Est. – Released 4/30/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.328 million units in March. Sales have rebounded since the extreme cold and snow slowed down buyers.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent).
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $198.6 billion in March.
Durable Goods – Released 4/29/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $318.9 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February decrease.
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 4/29/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/28/2026 – .Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/27/2026 – The purchasing managers index for manufacturing was flat in April, coming is at 52.7, same as March.
Philly Fed Index – Released 4/19/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The surveex for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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