US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both capped off a sixth-straight weekly gain and ended at fresh record highs. The S&P is up over 16% that period, the third best six-week run in the past 15 years , while Nasdaq has rallied over 25% over this period, its second-best run (behind April-09 GFC rebound) since May 2001
Big tech was all higher with semis also rallying. Software was also higher for a fourth-straight week. Other outperformers included memory, Internets, tech components, China tech, airlines, copper and aluminum, casual diners, building materials, and PE. Laggards included energy, parcels and logistics, road and rails, discounters, media, money center banks, credit cards, payments, and homebuilders. Treasuries were little changed to a touch firmer with some curve flattening. The dollar index was down 0.3%. Gold was up 1.9%. Silver was up 5.8%. Bitcoin futures were up 2%. WTI crude was down 6.4%.
The Iran war remains the key focal point. This week saw a ramp in optimism for a diplomatic solution, notably the US and Iran nearing agreement on a 14-point MOU that is under negotiation between Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner and Iranian officials. However, there is some skepticism that Iran will also abandon some of its longer-standing hardline positions (notably on nuclear), while there was some escalation Thursday with Iran and US launching strikes at each other. Regardless, the expected path to end the war helped push oil prices lower, though Treasury yields lower only saw modest gains.
AI was the other big story of the week. AMD earnings helped support the AI compute/capex narrative. Announced partnerships between Anthropic and Google also played into the AI demand and capex narrative, while Anthropic said it saw 80x growth in Q1 on an annualized basis, significantly ahead of what it planned for.
Data this week was headlined by Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report, which came in ahead at 115K, ahead of 65K consensus. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, while average hourly earnings came in cooler than expected. Friday’s April Michigan Consumer Sentiment missed, falling to a record low 48.2. The current conditions index also fell to a record low with respondents increasingly concerned about the inflation picture.
In addition to AI tailwinds, a resilient macro backdrop, and earnings strength, other pieces of the bullish narrative included more retail investor participation, pushback against narrow breadth (BofA and Morgan Stanley both highlighted strong median stock EPS growth), and resilience in software names amid AI disruption fears. The bearish narrative included hawkish Fed takeaways (market now pricing 3 bp of hikes through year-end) and concerns around a lagged inflation impact from the US-Iran conflict. Stretched positioning and sentiment are in focus after the recent run, notably in momentum. Earnings commentary included consumer concerns from rising gas and energy prices. The AI narrative remains under scrutiny over issues around breadth, valuations, supply constraints and component shortages, and FCF headwinds.
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar weakened modestly this week as easing geopolitical fears and softer Treasury yields reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback.
Energy Complex – Energy markets remained highly volatile this week as geopolitical headlines surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive crude oil prices. WTI crude briefly surged above $100/barrel before retreating on renewed ceasefire and negotiation hopes, though prices remain elevated relative to historical averages. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 1 this week. There are now 548 active rigs in the U.S. currently, down 30 y/y.
Metals Complex – Gold rebounded roughly 2% this week as a softer U.S. dollar, easing Treasury yields, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty drove renewed safe-haven demand. Continued central-bank purchases and improving technical momentum also helped stabilize sentiment following the recent pullback from January highs.
Weekly Unemployment Claims– 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 4/2/2026 – In the week ending May 2, initial claims were 200,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 189,000 to 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Economic Data-Blue links take you to data source-
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit –Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index– Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.
GDP, 1st Q, 1st Est. – Released 4/30/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.328 million units in March. Sales have rebounded since the extreme cold and snow slowed down buyers.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent).
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $198.6 billion in March.
Durable Goods – Released 4/29/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $318.9 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February decrease.
Housing Starts– Chart – Released 4/29/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/28/2026 – .Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/27/2026 – The purchasing managers index for manufacturing was flat in April, coming is at 52.7, same as March.
Retail Sales– Released 4/21/2026 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026 were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent from March 2025
Retail Sales – Released 4/21/26 U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, were up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent from March 2025. Total sales for the January 2026 through March 2026 period were up 3.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The January 2026 to February 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.7 percent.
Philly Fed Index – Released 4/19/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 4/16/26 – Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5 percent in March but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, manufacturing output ticked down 0.1 percent in March yet grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average
Producer Price Index – Released – 4/14/2026 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 4.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7 percent in February 2023.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 4/10/2026 – Existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% in March 2026. Month-over-month sales fell in all regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and West and declined in the Northeast and Midwest.
Consumer Price Index –Released 4/10/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in March, rising 0.3 percent. The index for food was unchanged over the month as the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
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US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both capped off a sixth-straight weekly gain and ended at fresh record highs. The S&P is up over 16% that period, the third best six-week run in the past 15 years , while Nasdaq has rallied over 25% over this period, its second-best run (behind April-09 GFC rebound) since May 2001
Big tech was all higher with semis also rallying. Software was also higher for a fourth-straight week. Other outperformers included memory, Internets, tech components, China tech, airlines, copper and aluminum, casual diners, building materials, and PE. Laggards included energy, parcels and logistics, road and rails, discounters, media, money center banks, credit cards, payments, and homebuilders. Treasuries were little changed to a touch firmer with some curve flattening. The dollar index was down 0.3%. Gold was up 1.9%. Silver was up 5.8%. Bitcoin futures were up 2%. WTI crude was down 6.4%.
The Iran war remains the key focal point. This week saw a ramp in optimism for a diplomatic solution, notably the US and Iran nearing agreement on a 14-point MOU that is under negotiation between Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner and Iranian officials. However, there is some skepticism that Iran will also abandon some of its longer-standing hardline positions (notably on nuclear), while there was some escalation Thursday with Iran and US launching strikes at each other. Regardless, the expected path to end the war helped push oil prices lower, though Treasury yields lower only saw modest gains.
AI was the other big story of the week. AMD earnings helped support the AI compute/capex narrative. Announced partnerships between Anthropic and Google also played into the AI demand and capex narrative, while Anthropic said it saw 80x growth in Q1 on an annualized basis, significantly ahead of what it planned for.
Data this week was headlined by Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report, which came in ahead at 115K, ahead of 65K consensus. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, while average hourly earnings came in cooler than expected. Friday’s April Michigan Consumer Sentiment missed, falling to a record low 48.2. The current conditions index also fell to a record low with respondents increasingly concerned about the inflation picture.
In addition to AI tailwinds, a resilient macro backdrop, and earnings strength, other pieces of the bullish narrative included more retail investor participation, pushback against narrow breadth (BofA and Morgan Stanley both highlighted strong median stock EPS growth), and resilience in software names amid AI disruption fears. The bearish narrative included hawkish Fed takeaways (market now pricing 3 bp of hikes through year-end) and concerns around a lagged inflation impact from the US-Iran conflict. Stretched positioning and sentiment are in focus after the recent run, notably in momentum. Earnings commentary included consumer concerns from rising gas and energy prices. The AI narrative remains under scrutiny over issues around breadth, valuations, supply constraints and component shortages, and FCF headwinds.
Fixed Income –
April FOMC Statement March Minutes Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Dot Plots
Treasury.gov yields FOMC Policy Normalization Statement Statement on Longer- Run Goals
Foreign Exchange Market – The U.S. dollar weakened modestly this week as easing geopolitical fears and softer Treasury yields reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback.
Energy Complex – Energy markets remained highly volatile this week as geopolitical headlines surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive crude oil prices. WTI crude briefly surged above $100/barrel before retreating on renewed ceasefire and negotiation hopes, though prices remain elevated relative to historical averages. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 1 this week. There are now 548 active rigs in the U.S. currently, down 30 y/y.
Metals Complex – Gold rebounded roughly 2% this week as a softer U.S. dollar, easing Treasury yields, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty drove renewed safe-haven demand. Continued central-bank purchases and improving technical momentum also helped stabilize sentiment following the recent pullback from January highs.
Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 4/2/2026 – In the week ending May 2, initial claims were 200,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 189,000 to 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.
March Jobs Report – BLS Summary – Released 5/8/2026
Employment Cost Index – Released 4/30/2026 – Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in March 2026 This report is published quarterly.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 5/5/2026 – The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed.
Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source-
U.S. Construction Spending– Released 5/7/2026 – Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion
Consumer Credit – Released 5/7/2026 – Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.
New Residential Sales – Released 5/5/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 682,000. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2026 rate of 635,000, and is 3.3 percent above the March 2025 rate of 660,000.
U.S. Trade Balance – Released 5/5/2026 – The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2026. The deficit increased from $57.8 billion in February to $60.3 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $4.1 billion in March to $88.7 billion. The services surplus increased $1.6 billion in March to $28.4 billion.
PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 5/3/2026 – Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in April, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, the 22nd consecutive month in expansion territory.
GDP, 1st Q, 1st Est. – Released 4/30/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.
US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.328 million units in March. Sales have rebounded since the extreme cold and snow slowed down buyers.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent).
Personal Income – Released 4/30/2026 – Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $198.6 billion in March.
Durable Goods – Released 4/29/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $318.9 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent February decrease.
Housing Starts – Chart – Released 4/29/2026 – Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent.
Consumer Confidence– Released 4/28/2026 – .Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.
PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/27/2026 – The purchasing managers index for manufacturing was flat in April, coming is at 52.7, same as March.
Retail Sales– Released 4/21/2026 – Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026 were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent from March 2025
Retail Sales – Released 4/21/26 U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, were up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent from March 2025. Total sales for the January 2026 through March 2026 period were up 3.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The January 2026 to February 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.7 percent.
Philly Fed Index – Released 4/19/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 4/16/26 – Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5 percent in March but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, manufacturing output ticked down 0.1 percent in March yet grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average
Producer Price Index – Released – 4/14/2026 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 4.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7 percent in February 2023.
Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 4/10/2026 – Existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% in March 2026. Month-over-month sales fell in all regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and West and declined in the Northeast and Midwest.
Consumer Price Index – Released 4/10/2026 – The Consumer Price Index increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in March, rising 0.3 percent. The index for food was unchanged over the month as the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent
Data Sources:
Conference Board Economic Indicators Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)
CME Fed Watch U.S. Treasury – Yields U.S. Census Bureau Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Weekly DOL Employment Data BLS Monthly Jobs Report JOLTS All capital in one visualization 2020
US Energy Admn (EIA) BLS Consumer Price Index CPI BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW NY Fed Nowcast GDP US Census Bureau Housing Starts U.S. Energy Admn
Consumer Credit USCB Retail Sales Construction Spending Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017 NY Empire Index Philadelphia Federal Reserve P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research
Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts Exponential vs Simple moving average
Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Hunt Brothers Silver Asian Contagion Long-Term Capital bailout
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