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The real story is a massive rebound off the April lows. The S&P500 rallied 14% since the bottom on March 30th.  For the full month it jumped over 10% higher, the Nasdaq (read tech) rallied even harder cruising to a 15% gain in April. If you missed April it will be hard to make it back up. 

Major US equity indices were higher this week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both recording their fifth straight weekly gains, ending at fresh closing highs. Russell 2000 recorded its sixth consecutive weekly advance. Equal weight S&P was up 0.4%, recouping most of last week’s loss. Big tech was mostly higher although Meta lagged the pack. Bonds were weaker with yield rising and the curve flattening. Dollar Index was down slightly  Gold finished down 2.0%. Bitcoin futures were up 1.0%. WTI crude was up 8.0%, adding to last week’s 14% surge on Iran headlines.

This week reinforced a resilient macro and earnings backdrop. Q1 S&P 500 results were notably strong, with growth accelerating to 27% and beat rates well above historical averages. Consumer spending remained healthy, with Visa and Mastercard highlighting stable demand and no signs of lower-income weakness despite geopolitical risks. Macro data supported a steady outlook, with resilient labor markets, continued expansion in manufacturing, and solid underlying demand. However, Iran conflict and related oil price surge remain key overhangs.

Big Tech earnings were broadly supportive of the AI narrative, with strong demand and elevated capex, though ongoing concerns around ROI and sustainability still top of mind. Google led the Mag 7 with 63% Cloud growth, a near doubling of backlog, 19% Search growth, and a strong OI beat. Apple was received positively after FQ2 beat led by Services and GM, with iPhone modestly ahead; supply constraints persist amid strong iPhone 17 demand, FQ3 guide above expectations. Amazon also stood out, driven by a fifth straight quarter of AWS acceleration, margin upside, solid ad growth, and a better than feared Q2 OI guide. Microsoft lagged despite stronger Azure metrics and 123% AI ARR growth, as higher 2026 capex reinforced investor caution. Meta was the weakest, with stock pressured by soft Q2 revenue guidance and a higher capex outlook, amplifying ROI and TAM concerns.

No real progress in the Middle East stalemate, with markets still skeptical of near-term escalation even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and reopening timelines slip into mid-to-late summer. The ceasefire continues to hold, providing a key tailwind this month, but efforts to form an international coalition have gained little traction and Trump said to be considering a resumption of strikes. Confidence in near-term deal remains low especially after Trump said Friday afternoon he is “not satisfied” with latest Iranian proposal. Meanwhile, this week’s inventory data highlights tightening conditions, with US crude stocks falling 6.2M barrels in the week ended 24-Apr. Market is increasingly pricing in a longer delay to strait reopening and tightening inventories, requiring higher prices to drive demand destruction and rebalance market.

Fed FOMC meeting ended with rates unchanged but was marked by rare internal division, with four dissents reflecting disagreement over easing bias. Statement was largely unchanged, still implying the next move could be a cut, though some economists see the dissents as lowering the bar for hikes. Notably, Chair Powell said he will remain on the Board as a governor after his chair term ends. Markets continue to price no rate cuts this year, with economists warning a prolonged pause is likely unless labor market conditions weaken.

This week’s economic data was mostly supportive.  First read of Q1 GDP came in at +2.0% SAAR, below 2.3% consensus but up from Q4’s +0.5%, with some boost tied to post-shutdown normalization; March personal income rose 0.6% m/m, rebounding from February, while spending increased 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations; Core PCE printed 0.3% m/m, easing from 0.4%;  April ISM Manufacturing showed steady demand though rising prices flagged as concern; Labor data remained very strong, with initial jobless claims at 189K, the lowest since 1969, and continuing claims at 1.785M, both well below expectations; 6) April consumer confidence beat, highest since December; Preliminary headline March durable goods orders increased 0.8% m/m (vs 0.4% consensus, prior 1.2% decline).

Fixed Income –

April FOMC Statement   March Minutes   Credit, Liquidity and Balance Sheet    Federal Reserve Dot Plots  

Treasury.gov yields    FOMC Policy Normalization Statement    Statement on Longer- Run Goals 

Foreign Exchange Market – The United States dollar weakened modestly this week as investors continued to balance slowing economic momentum, evolving Federal Reserve expectations, and improving global risk sentiment

Energy Complex – The energy complex strengthened this week, with both West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude posting gains as markets continued to price in elevated geopolitical uncertainty alongside ongoing supply concerns. Crude oil prices remained supported by tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of future supply disruptions, even as investors became somewhat more optimistic surrounding near-term ceasefire and diplomatic discussions. While some geopolitical fears moderated during the week, markets appeared unwilling to fully remove the embedded risk premium from oil prices given the fragile nature of the broader geopolitical backdrop. The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of 3 this week. There are now 547 active rigs in the U.S. currently, down 37 y/y.

Metals Complex –  Precious metals weakened this week, with both gold and silver declining roughly 2% following an extended period of strong performance. The pullback appeared driven primarily by profit-taking, stabilization in geopolitical risk sentiment, and modestly firmer real interest rates as markets reassessed the timing and magnitude of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. 

Employment Picture – 

Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Moving Average – Released Thursday 4/2/2026 – In the week ending April 25, initial claims were 189,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 210,750 to 211,000

March Jobs Report –  BLS Summary  Released 4/3/2026 – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline.

Employment Cost Index – Released 2/10/2026 –  Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from September 2025. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted, for the 12-month period ending in December 2025. Wages and salaries increased 3.3 percent and benefit costs increased 3.4 percent over the year. This report is published quarterly.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey JOLTS – Released 3/31/2026 – The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million in January. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. 

Economic Data- Blue links take you to data source- 

GDP, 1st Q, 1st Est. – Released 4/30/26 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. 

US Light Vehicle Sales– Released 4/30/2026 – U.S. light vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.328 million units in March. Sales have rebounded since the extreme cold and snow slowed down buyers.

Housing Starts – Chart – Released 4/29/2026 –  Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent.

Consumer Confidence– Released 4/28/2026 – .Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® edged up by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2 in March’s upwardly revised reading.

PMI Manufacturing Index – Released 4/27/2026 – The purchasing managers index for manufacturing was flat in April, coming is at 52.7, same as March.  

Retail Sales – Released 4/21/26 U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, were up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent from March 2025. Total sales for the January 2026 through March 2026 period were up 3.7 percent from the same period a year ago. The January 2026 to February 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.7 percent.

Philly Fed Index – Released  4/19/26 – Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Released 4/16/26 – Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5 percent in March but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, manufacturing output ticked down 0.1 percent in March yet grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average

Producer Price Index – Released – 4/14/2026 – The Producer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 4.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7 percent in February 2023.

Existing Home Sales – Realtors Summary Released 4/10/2026 – Existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% in March 2026. Month-over-month sales fell in all regions. Year-over-year sales rose in the South and West and declined in the Northeast and Midwest.

Consumer Price Index – Released 4/10/2026 –  The Consumer Price Index increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in March, rising 0.3 percent. The index for food was unchanged over the month as the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent

Personal Income – Released 4/9/2026 – Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $18.3 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $106.5 billion in February. Personal saving was $931.5 billion in February, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 4.0 percent.

Personal Consumption Expenditures – Released 4/9/2026 – Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $18.3 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent).

Durable Goods – Released 4/07/2026 – New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down four of the last five months, decreased $4.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $315.5 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, drove the decrease, $6.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $106.1 billion

Consumer Credit – Released 4/7/2026 – In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent.

PMI Non-Manufacturing Index – Released 4/3/2026 –  Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in February. The Services PMI® registered 56.1 percent, its 20th month in a row in expansion territory. The Services PMI® registered a reading of 56.1 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over January’s figure of 53.8 percent and the highest since July 2022 (56.5 percent 

U.S. Trade Balance – Released 4/2/2026 –  The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in February 2026. The deficit increased from $54.7 billion in January (revised) to $57.3 billion in February, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $2.5 billion in February to $84.6 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.2 billion in February to $27.3 billion.

Retail Sales– Released 4/1/2026 – Estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2026, were $738.4 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.7 percent from February 2025. Total sales for the December 2025 through February 2026 period were up 3.1 percent from the same period a year ago. The December 2025 to January 2026 percent change was revised from down 0.2 percent to down 0.1 percent. 

U.S. Construction Spending– Released 3/23/2026 – Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,197.6 billion. The January figure is 1.0 percent above the January 2025 estimate of $2,169.6 billion.

New Residential Sales – Released 3/19/2026 – Sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 587,000. This is 17.6 percent below the December 2025 rate of 712,000, and is 11.3 percent below the January 2025 rate of 662,000.

Data Sources: 

Conference Board Economic Indicators   Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)   Congressional Budget Office (CBO)     U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)    Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED Charts)

CME Fed Watch   U.S. Treasury – Yields   U.S. Census Bureau    Institute for Supply Management (ISM)    Weekly DOL Employment Data    BLS Monthly Jobs Report    JOLTS      All capital in one visualization 2020

US Energy Admn (EIA)   BLS Consumer Price Index CPI      BLS Producer Price Index PPIAtlanta Fed GDPNOW    NY Fed Nowcast GDP     US Census Bureau Housing Starts   U.S. Energy Admn

Consumer Credit  USCB Retail Sales   Construction Spending      Federal Reserve Dot Plots 2017   NY Empire Index    Philadelphia Federal Reserve   P/E Ratio Data -Yardeni Research

Technical Analysis Info: StockCharts.com – Financial Charts     Exponential vs Simple moving average

Other links: 1973 Arab Oil Embargo    Hunt Brothers Silver    Asian Contagion     Long-Term Capital bailout